MUST READ!!!
It’s from last month, granted, but if you haven’t yet seen former Dep. Secretary of State Richard Armitage’s interview in the Oriental Economist (reprinted in Pacific Forum), take a look at it now. Lots of interesting quotes, including:
You seem optimistic about the two Koreas coming together.
I wouldn’t call it optimistic. At some point, a unified Korean Peninsula could cause some complications for the U.S.-Japan relationship. Korea has a robust population, relatively young. A unified Korea would have a huge military. And Korea would be a country that, very fairly, has often been described as a “shrimp among whales.” I wouldn’t blame Koreans if they were to decide that they do not want to be a “shrimp among whales.” The desire to end that role that history seemed to impose on them would be understandable.
Read the rest on your own.
(Hat tip to reader)
UPDATE: Spewer discussed the comments of his “evil twin” when the interview first came out last week.
41 Comments
“China wants the nuclear weapons issue resolved. I don’t
doubt that. The Chinese worry that the nuclear weapons issue
in the North could ultimately bring a foreign power into the
North, which China very much does not want. So, China will
be consistent in its desire to eliminate the North Korean
nuclear programs.”
If China really wants to resolve it, it would have resolved a few years ago. No, China wants NK to threaten the U.S. China loves it. Also, China can get things(most favorable trading nation status, undervaluation of currency, and even Taiwan someday) out of the U.S. as long as NK misbehaves. China loves KJI, their favorite puppet. Bring women(gippumjo), gold and dollars when he comes to visit. A good underling. Very good one. Like father, like son.
China does not want foreign powers into NK. That is correct. China wants KJI to close NK borders; don’t let no one in or out. China doesn’t want NK to change. Just stay as it is - dirt poor country with lots of political prisons. And, subservient to China.
“A unified Korea would have a huge military.
And Korea would be a country that, very fairly, has often been described as a “shrimp among whales.” I wouldn’t blame
Koreans if they were to decide that they do not want to be a
“shrimp among whales.” The desire to end that role that
history seemed to impose on them would be understandable.”
He is correct. The unified Korea will be under China and do the same thing NK is doing now: Threaten Japan and the U.S. with violence and terror, following China’s direction. I think the U.S. should pull out of Japan but stay in South Korea. China and NK will fight Japan. Meanwhile, the U.S. and South Korea can stay friendly toward both sides till the war between them is over. The U.S. can play peacemaker between the two.
“Concerning China: Does the United States fundamentally
have a policy of containing China, working with Japan and
India, and maybe Vietnam?
No. I really mean that. Look at the facts. Look at the
enormous level of American foreign direct investment in
China, for example. And look at the fact that we have trained
hundreds of thousands of Chinese engineers and other
technocrats in American universities. We continue to do so.
Our actions hardly seem to be those of a country trying to
contain China. We do not have a policy to contain China.”
Eat that, all of you China bashing neocons
万世!!!
luxbearer: With all due respect, I think your analysis needs to be a little more sophisticated.
Our watchword over at ComingAnarchy.com is “Speak Victorian, Think Pagan.” That’s a concept articulated by Robert D. Kaplan in 2002, and applying the concept to US policy towards China, I covered that last year:
Luxbearer,
“On March 10, 1959, the people of Lhasa assembled together and called for the Chinese to leave Tibet, thus marking the beginning of the uprising. The Chinese crackdown was harsh. An estimated 87,000 Tibetans were killed, arrested, or deported to labor camps. and flight to exile”
“The Government continued to insist that Gyaltsen Norbu, the boy it recognizes and enthroned in 1995 is the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama. The Panchen Lama is Tibetan Buddhism’s second highest figure, after the Dalai Lama. Since then Gyaltsen Norbu visited Tibet in June for the first time in 3 years, holding audiences for both monks and lay persons who were ordered by their work units to attend. Security surrounding the visit was extremely tight. The boy’s return to Tibet received extensive coverage in the media, where he was quoted as telling believers to “love the Communist Party of China, love our Socialist motherland, and love the religion we believe in.” Norbu also appeared publicly in Beijing to mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. At all other times he was held incommunicado by Chinese authorities. Meanwhile, the Government continued to detain Gendun Choekyi Nyima, the boy recognized by the Dalai Lama as the Panchen Lama.”
“In November 2003 China conducted military exercises in Tibet, in what officials say was an anti-terrorist drill. There have been no reports of terrorist activity in Tibet in recent memory. A Chinese official said the exercises were meant to keep forces ready for a crackdown on what he called separatists allied with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama. The operations took place with Chinese troops engaging in drills on rescuing hostages, and handling bombs and biochemical attacks. The Communist Party chief in Tibet, Guo Jintong, was quoted by the government newspaper China Tibet News as accusing followers of Tibet’s exiled leader, the Dalai Lama, of stepping up “terrorist” activities to pursue their goal of establishing an autonomous state. The comments attributed to the regional party leader were not echoed by the central government authorities in Beijing. China had stepped up its verbal attacks on the Dalai Lama and criticized nations including the United States, France, and Japan for allowing him to visit in recent months. ”
http://www.globalsecurity.org/...../tibet.htm
China is not a peace-loving country. It is a regional trouble maker which openly states that someday it will eat up Taiwan by force and attack Japan if Koi continues to visit Yasukuni. It also harbors secret ambition to subjugate South Korea. North Korea is already under their control.
China is busy buying up more weapons when there is no threat from other countries. It is a kid looking for trouble.
http://www.sinodefence.com/new.....-03-04.asp
curzon
with reciprocal due respect, you need to tweak your sensors.
I don’t have any pretensions about doing political analyses, I already have so much analysis shit at hand trying to design around american patents.
I just get giddy when I see cracks in the empire.
Very funny — thanks for that.
Baduk,
Actually your facts are wrong. China did not say that it will attack Japan if Koizumi continues to visit Yasukuni. China is a very strong principled nation. It did say it will attack Taiwan if separatist group dismantles the Republic of China. And I believe it.
China hopes that one day, the PRC government in Beijing will join the ROC government in Taipei, hand in hand and administer all of China. The Communist has worked many times together with the ROC government in history. This was Dr. Sun Yat Sen’s dream as well, that all Chinese unite together and not fight amongst themselves. All communist party members were initially party members of the Kuomintang; and Dr. Sun Yat Sen’s wife, who is the elder sister of General Chiang Kai Shek’s wife, supported the communists; while her sister is married to the President of Taiwan.
On the other hand, China is also the world’s largest democracy. The Western press do not credit China for this. But recently they did. They publicized an election irregularity called the Tai Shi incident in Southern China that led to protests by the local villagers against election officials. In this case, they had to publicize the election in order to smear the good name of China. Normally, they don’t publicize those elections. So there are ELECTIONS in China. See: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e.....288018.htm
China is being threatned constantly. Are you not aware that the US sends spy planes up and down the China coast? There was a spy plane incident where they crash landed just a few years ago. When you have spy planes flying up and down your coast, it is foolish to not be prepared militarily.
Like it or not, you must be AFRAID and feel XENOPHOBIC about China. China will have the world’s most powerful military, likeit or not. Per capita, its spending will still be low, but in absolute terms it will be the largest - and that is a good reason for you to feel XENOPHOBIC. BE AFRAID NOW, BE VERY AFRAID. Only then the military spending is taking an effect. If we spend all the money on military, and you are still not afraid, then what is the use.
:ahem:
That would be a “signals reconnaissance.” There is nothing spy plane-ish about the bulky and unweildy EP-3E.
IMO Armitage has spoken from his mind. I do not think there is really Victorian Pagan in his mind, although many in the right in US do have.
Remember he was sent to see Deng in June 1989.
I do think China has genuine interests in denuclearize NK. No one wants an unpredictable neighbor with Nuke. Even if NK is nuking SK, the radioactive cloud will be blown to North China.
It is true that NK is a card China can play, to trade for other deals with the US. But we are talking about Nukes.
Another reason: NK could collapse at any unexpected moment. Then it will be a unified Korea with Nuke. This is the last thing China wants to see. (a) Such a new Korea could be a threat to China. (b) it would provide an excuse for Japan to go nuclear.
The reasons above outwieghs any argument for bargaining chips.
@Baduk,
as for the rest of your debate on China, and Korea. I suggest taking them to the internet forum inside China, there you can find your counterparts in the thousands, enjoy.
“On the other hand, China is also the world’s largest democracy.”
Thanks for enlightening us on that ‘fact’. When was the last election? Who won? How many votes did they get? The communists must have got in on a squeaker past the Freedom Party.
Anyone who claims to be a Mahathir fan would naturally see China as a democracy.
“On the other hand, China is also the world’s largest democracy.”
There must be age-appropriate manga or coloring books or something available to help this guy get up to speed on China as well as Korea.
“I just get giddy when I see cracks in the empire.”
China actually is an empire, but I don’t see any cracks.
Well, those who are unaware of china being a democracy, you must now wake up and realize the propaganda that you have been fed through the years by your twisted news media.
China’s elections are held once every 3 to 5 years depending on your locale. Representatives are elected at the township/vilage level. These representative in turn elect provincial representatives who intrun elect among themselves to become members of the national legislature. There is considerable autonomy within each village, with villages taking charge of for example, their own finances.
The Constitution of the PRC clearly indicates that it is a democracy:
From: http://english.people.com.cn/c.....ution.html
“Article 2. All power in the People’s Republic of China belongs to the people.
Article 34. All citizens of the People’s Republic of China who have reached the age of 18 have the right to vote and stand for election, regardless of nationality, race, sex, occupation, family background, religious belief, education, property status, or length of residence, except persons deprived of political rights according to law.
”
Electrions in China had been held since 1988 and thereafter across China. Did you guys not read about the Tai Shi incident? Well, the anti-China press does not publicize Chinese elections but on the Tai Shi matter, they had to because it was an opportunity for them to discredit China’s elections. However, you must ask yourself as you read the Tai Shi incident, why did your Western media not report to you earlier that China holds regular elections? Why are they reporting only when there is an electrion fraud?
See the Tai Shi incident, and ask why your media never told you China holds electrions until after fraud has been committed:
http://www.zonaeuropa.com/20050919_1.htm
mahathir_fan, are you serious? I have friends that are members of the Chinese Communist Party and they are not brainwashed at all. The Soviet Constitution along with the North Korean constitution also promised freedom, democracy, and religious rights, but they didnt have that either, did they?
. . . and if my mother had wheels, she too would be a wagon. Mahathir_fan, I’ve met educated Chinese before and they know about the “party” in China. It is not a democracy in practice, whatsoever.
What is it that you know that they don’t know?
Which educated Chinese have you met and when? Elections started in 1988 (a year before the Tiananmen incident). There are many Chinese who left China and went overseas and they themselves know very little about such elections. Or they may be Taiwanese chinese in which case they know little about mainland. You need to be in China and live there. Many Chinese people also do not travel. I have met many Shanghainese who never left the city in their lives. Perhaps, they don’t even know they have the right to vote and never registered. Its their ignorance that should be blamed.
The only non-normal practice is that in China while you may run and stand for election, but you may not form a political party. You must run as an independent. But if you have ever read one of the Federalist papers by James Madison, you will find that he was against the establishment of a nationwide political party as well because this would cause people to votein blocks rather than promote indepedence of choice. In principle, it is possible for independents if they number large enough to elect an independent as the new President of China. Entirely possible but it hasn’t happened. The Communist party is still the favourite party among voters although the number of seats at the NPC(legislative) is diminishing.
China does protect freedom in Article 35. Check it. But as usual, you cannot use freedom to print articles designed to overthrow the Chinese government. Some say, how can it still be called freedom if you cannot print articles designed to incite another Tiananmen Incident? For that I would refer you to the Supreme Court case invovling Gitlow vs. New York. In the 1920s, communist movement was strong in the United States. Gitlow, a socialist printed articles to incite a violent overthrow of the US government. He was subsequently arrested and pledged innocent as printing those articles were his right as accorded by the 1st amendment. The Supreme Court ruled that first amendment does not apply when one prints articles or utter words designed to overthrow the government. In the same case, freedom does not apply to you when you use that freedom to overthrow the Chinese government. A lot of so called “human rights” activists are precicely trying to overthrow the Chinese government and when arrested, they bad mouthed China that it does not respect their rights, when they are just the Chinese version of the American Gitlow. See:
http://www.oyez.org/oyez/resource/case/140/
mahathir_fan,
What are you smoking? I’d like to get my hands on some of that.
Mahthir_fan, I’ve met Chinese who still live in the PRC with Ph.D’s as of last year. One of them worked for the PRC Government as well. Is that Chinese enough for you or do you know yet another bit of secret information that we foreigners know not?!
Your stories would not be understood by any of the rural people in the PRC who have had their lands stolen or “bought” for pocket money by the local representatives of the Communist Party. Maybe you should go and live there and explain to people there just how ignorant they really are about their government.
mahathir_fan,
Since you claim that you know the “inside” of China, I have a question. Why the Chinese keep spending more money to beef up its military? Who is their enemy? America? Russia? South Korea?
I tell you what. I think the Chinese are preparing for a war with Japan. China wants to pay back the Japanese for what they have done in WWII; China wants to bash the Japanese skull and put the Japanese babies on their bayonets.
And, Korea may join the Great Chinese Empire and do a part of the dirty work for China if she is convinced that China will be the winning side. To this end, China is spending much money in buying up new weapon systems.
Baduk: As I was saying in my post on a similar subject yesterday, quoting a news article, such a conflict may involve the US>/a>:
Well, as I wrote so many times, this war between China and Japan is a great opportunity for the U.S. to make money and erase national debts held by these two economic behemoths.
The U.S. should maintain an absolute neutrality and at the same time sell weapons to both sides. “Cash and carry”. After all, this war is the very definition of “regional conflict” that the little man, Truman, had so eager to proclaim. There is absolute no reason for the U.S. to get involved. Absolutely none.
Let the Japanese bear the full ire of the Chinese Pig. Koi and other Japanese rightwingers deserve it.
When these two “savages” have worn out, the U.S. and UN can figure out the peace in the region. Don’t let Russians in, though. They like to be the final beneficiary of the war.
Let’s see: the US has a 50 year old promise to defend Japan, tens of thousands of personnel stationed in eight (of 47) prefectures, an increasingly integrated military with Japan… this would happen how? Your comment is as Korean a fantasy as Kim-chi curing SARS and Kim Jong Il being reasoned with.
Things will slowly change.
1) Japan will pass a constitutional change, which will form Japanese military.
2) The U.S. starts to pull out from Japan.
3) Once they achieve some military strength, the right-wingers in Japan will defy not only China but the U.S. as well. Japan will time-travel back to 1940s and talk about world conquest. Or, at least the hegemony of Asia.
4) The U.S. will slowly back out of the promise of defending Japan. There will be no official termination but the sentiment of American people will change.
5) The U.S. remove all forces from Japan and Korea and station them in Australia, waiting for the big war to start. Sells weapons to both countries.
— a big war between China and Japan, involving Korea—-
6) The U.S. and UN propose the terms of settlement between China and Japan Cease fire.
Elgin,
If you have so much trust in your “Chinese friends”, then I suggest that you do a google news search for the “TaiShi Incident”. Ask yourself why villagers went head to head with authorities over the election recall of their village leader. I repeat ELECTION recall. If China is not a democracy, how can there be ELECTIONS. Your trusted news source will smear China’s election in the Taishi incident news reports, but you must know, prior to TaiShi, China has held thousands of such elections since 1988, and many were peaceful with no major controversies. Check the facts yourself.
Baduk,
I think China is still spending too little on its military. It needs to protect its borders agaist 16 other nations. Also its needs to reduce its military personnels and invest more on high tech weapons such as precision guided missiles. China has little interest in Japan, it has so muchland in its resourceful western regions , but the war may start with Japan. Japanese are willing to “kowtow” to Westerners, but expect Chinese to “kowtow” to them. Chinese on the other hand never kowtows to anyone. They are like the wild horses, even when weak, they won’t kowtow. So we have a problem that is Japanese people expect Chinese people to kowtow. Wondered why “kowtow” is not a Chinese culture butonly exist in Japaneses and Korean cultures? Here you know. It is like an old Japanese man expecting thi yong Chinese lad to bow, but the young Chinese lad doesn’t know how to.
Baduk: see final sentence in previous comment.
mathir_fan,
here is a fact: most elected leaders in China belong to the Communist Party. The Communist Party holds the power in China and shares it with no one else. I quote from Wikipedia: “The CPC both practices and supports a single-party state form of government. In periods of relative political liberalization, the influence of people and organizations outside the formal party structure has tended to increase, but such opportunities have vacillated repeatedly over time.”
No matter what you call it or, so far, no matter how many “elections” one holds, it is still not a democracy. Let’s review the definition of “democracy”:
de·moc·ra·cy n. pl. de·moc·ra·cies
1. Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
2. A political or social unit that has such a government.
3. The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
4. Majority rule.
5. The principles of social equality and respect for the individual within a community.
Does this apply to China? No, not yet. The CPC still rules from the barrel of a gun, not from the ballot box.
Elgin,
If you look at some of the older logs on wikipedia, you will find a lot of vandalism on articles with respect to china. Just click on the history tab. I do not consider it to be reliable on controversial topics.
Here’s the rebuttal see http://english.people.com.cn/c.....ution.html:
de·moc·ra·cy n. pl. de·moc·ra·cies
1. Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
Article 2. All power in the People’s Republic of China belongs to the people.
Article 59. The National People’s Congress is composed of deputies elected by the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and by the armed forces.
The provinces, autonomous regions and munipalities are elected by the people (since 1988).
2. A political or social unit that has such a government.
The National People’s Congress , Supreme People’s Court and the Executive.
3. The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
Article 3. The state organs of the People’s Republic of China apply the principle of democratic centralism. The National People’s Congress and the local people’s congresses at different levels are instituted through democratic election.
4. Majority rule.
Article 64. Amendments to the Constitution are to be proposed by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress or by more than one-fifth of the deputies to the National People’s Congress and adopted by a majority vote of more than two-thirds of all the deputies to the Congress. Statutes and resolutions are adopted by a majority vote of more than one half of all the deputies to the National People’s Congress.
5. The principles of social equality and respect for the individual within a community.
Article 48. Women in the People’s Republic of China enjoy equal rights with men in all spheres of life, political, economic, cultural and social, and family life. The state protects the rights and interests of women, applies the principle of equal pay for equal work for men and women alike and trains and selects cadres from among women.
…and leftists say neo-cons and conservatives are blind and dumb to the truth.
Mahatir Fan needs to learn the difference between form and substance, for he is making claims here that not even Chinese propagandists make with a straight face. Very few PRC citizens believe, or have any reason to believe in 2006, that the Chinese Constitution applies to them. The village elections, by design, select people who sit on bodies with ZERO POWER and serve at the pleasure of the Communist Party. Incidents like Taishi occur when people try to exercise power or hold leaders accountable.
That is ok guys.
Mathir_fan is that sort of fellow makes himself look more and more foolish with each posting. So now he blames “vandalism” of Wikipedia. Here is one article from the NY Times which at once demonstrates how China is at once not a real democracy but is being forced to change by its own people. Democracy is slowly coming but not without fighting the Communist Party and its thugs (police):
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04.....nted=print
I suppose Liu Xianhong is misinformed about the democracy she lives in, hummmm?
slim,
You’re wrong. In China, you only get bullied by authorities if you do not know the law. If you know your rights, they are careful when they deal with you. The reason why many people in China are bullied by authorities is the authorities themselves are not well versed with the law. They think they can do anything. But when you tell them what they are about to do to you is against the law, they will be careful.
If they want to search your house, they will knock on your door and intimidate you to open your door. But if you tell them that it is against the law for them to search your house without proper documentation, they will leave and return with it. But if you do not tell them, then they think they can search your house and they will arrest you for not cooperating.
Incident like TaiShi proves that the people elected into these position have REAL POWER. If they do not have real power, no one will bother voting or get into a confrontation with the authorities over a puppet figure.
Elgin,
You have been brainwashed and your mind has been imprisoned from the freedom of thought. Since you were young, you are led into believing that the world is clearly demarcated along the lines of black and white.
For example, for a long time, you were told that central planning and capitalism cannot co-exist. But look at your economy. One of the most important economic decision made by the US is done through central planning - the Federal Reserves board of governors sit on a round table, and decide if they wish to heat the economy or dampen it by raising or lowering interest rates. Central planning!
Now, China has succeeded in implementing capitalism. If you do not believe me, go and visit China some day.
China has also succeeded in implementing universal suffrage. Slim does not deny that there are elections in China. The only controversy is that the anti-China propagandists refuses to “grant” China a democracy status.
There are still countries in this world that does not “grant” China market economy status. But I know China is a market economy by and large. I expect “democracy” status to China to come even slower than “market economy” status.
There is no need to wait for a regime change before granting China “democracy” status. There are many countries in this world that has yet to have a regime change but they are democracies. Examples include Malaysia and Singapore.
Besides, freedom is an innate concept among Chinese people. The fight for freedom is in the first line of the national anthem of China, to be free from slavery.
The important thing I suggest to you is to look at the facts and decide. Do not allow the notion that communism and universal suffrage cannot coexist to affect your judgment. Otherwise, your mind is sad because it is being imprisoned by your prejudice. You know there are elections in China yet you refuse to believe it is a democracy. The people elected Communist party candidates to represent them. Therefore it is a representative democracy.
I looked at the New York Times article and I do not see how it discredit China from being a democracy. One of the greatest leader of the 20th century, Dr. Mahathir once imprisoned his politcal opponents without trial, shut down news paper presses that printed negative articles (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lalang), yet Malaysia is still by and large considered a democracy.
Frankly, mahathir_fan, describing the US as a command economy based on the example you’ve given is a bit of a stretch, isn’t it? That term is most typically used to describe a system of production and consumption of goods and services. Under your usage, the term loses it’s meaning, as essentially any country which attempts to manage its money supply is therefore a command economy, rather than a market-based one.
Sorry, can’t agree.
It might be, but probably not for someone who can describe the PRC as a democracy.
“In China, you only get bullied by authorities if you do not know the law. If you know your rights, they are careful when they deal with you.” Come on, mahathir_fan is a parody, right? He’s Steven Wright in disguise.
At this rate, mahathir_fan may soon earn a turn as a guest blogger at The Marmot’s Hole.
Gee, I can understand the problems one can have with using a second language (English is not easy!) but this is quite nonsensical and has nothing to do with the thesis of China not being a true democracy by any stretch of the immagination. The fellow has even gone and quoted Wikipedia — the same source that he descredited in an earlier post!
Like some people in Seoul that have become blind to the trash in the streets, mathir_fan seems to have a problem acknowledging the reality of China, rather than the wishful propaganda that too many spout. China will improve but only slowly and against the desires of the sly and despotic political machine that is the Chinese Communist Party that wants control at any price.
. . . and this, once again, from the NY Times:
Elgin,
The NY times article need to show precedences and court decisions that indicate that The constitution is not accessible. What came out from that paragraph you quoted sounds like a broad unsubstantiated swiping remark that facts.
Malaysia is probably the top destination for skiing and snowboarding in the Eastern hemisphere.
Singapore is the world’s leading nation of gum chewers, thanks to policies mandating that citizens chew gum every waking hour.
Violence is unknown in Cambodia, which has enjoyed four decades of peace and rapid economic growth.
THIS is how Mahatir_Fan sounds to anyone who knows even a little bit about China.
Give up. You have lost the plot, entirely.
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