The Marmot’s Hole

First, the one you all heard about, courtesy the JoongAng Ilbo. The paper managed to get its hands on a Japanese Foreign Ministry analysis report, dated from Jan. 25, that predicted the Roh administration would continue to take a hardline against Tokyo as a way to avoid lame-duck status and raise its woeful approval ratings. Since the report, if valid, was meant for Tokyo’s eyes only, the language used in it (at least when translated into Korean) was fairly blunt. Among the points made:

• Analyzing Roh’s approval ratings, the report said taking a hardline stance against Tokyo pays dividends politically in Seoul. It noted that the president’s approval ratings have been in the 20s for the last year and a half, but rose to near 40 percent when Roh adopted a combative stance vis-a-vis Japan, like his March 1 speech from last year and his “Letter to the People.” The report noted Seoul was unlikely to abandon its hardline stance for the remainder of Roh’s term, if for no other reason than to allow Roh to avoid becoming a lame duck;

• The report noted that manipulating public opinion using “the North Korean threat” and “opposition to Japan” was an old trick used by South Korea’s past military dictators to hold in check the democratic movement. Now, the government uses “improving intra-Korean relations” and “opposition to Japan” to manipulate public opinion. In particular, the report dedicated much space to the Dokdo issue, describing Korea’s measures to strengthen its sovereignty over the islets–including opening the islets to tourism, the Air Force Chief of Staff flying over the islets, and landings on the islets by ministers and lawmakers–as “drastic displays.” Perhaps most irritating to the Korean side, the report said Seoul’s continuation of such agitated displays toward Japan and the international community didn’t appear significant. Instead, it said the purpose of such public displays was to agitate Korean public opinion, and that Seoul was continuing to win points at home with its hardline against Tokyo by fanning nationalism with the Dokdo issue and keeping Korea-Japan relations in the crapper;
• The report described Korea’s public sentiment, which can bubble over quite easily, as “rash expression;”
• In explaining the background to Seoul’s policies toward Japan, the report said Korea’s hardline was a manifestation in international relations of the Roh’s administration’s political tools. It said that in whatever he does, Roh creates “villains” to be fought, and he seeks political legitimacy through confronting those villains. It said Seoul has been continuously amplifying Japan’s image as a villain;
• The report said at one point, Korea’s diplomatic authorities felt some degree of urgency as bilateral ties went in the toilet, but now, they appear to have lost the ability to resist Cheong Wa Dae’s hardline posture. Korean diplomats also appear pessimistic about holding a bilateral summit as long as Koizumi is Japanese prime minister;
• Finally, the report concluded by saying the “magical power” of anti-Japanism in Korea must be reduced by deepening mutual understanding and friendship as people-to-people exchanges expand.

Not surprisingly, officials in Seoul went ape-shit after reading the JoongAng’s report. One Korean Foreign Ministry official, quoted in the JoongAng report, said, “It seems the Japanese government doesn’t realize the seriousness of the issue of historical understanding… Japan’s claims about Dokdo are so unreasonable that there’s not one person among even historians within Japan who claims the islets are Japanese territory.” He said, “Regardless whether it’s an internal document, it’s unfortunate that Japan would arbitrarily analyze another country’s internal situation.” Cheong Wa Dae failed to see the humor in the report, and Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said the government would react strongly should the report turn out to be what the JoongAng says it is. Ban also expressed “rage” as a Korean citizen over the report’s comments on Dokdo. Oh, and Yonhap (English) said a funny:

The Japanese government has angered South Koreans by frequently claiming ownership over Dokdo. But South Korean officials have usually tried to respond in a cool-headed manner, as Tokyo is suspected of plotting to bring the matter to the international court.

Cool-headed manner? You mean like this and this? Or this? The Lost Nomad was right–sometimes, these blogs just write themselves.
According to the Chosun Ilbo, the government called up the Japanese embassy to demand a copy of the report. The Japanese have yet to respond, but given how the report in question was an Foreign Ministry internal document, I’d imagine Tokyo will respond with a one-finger salute. That or propose a trade for South Korean Foreign Ministry internal memos that the Sankei Shimbun can translate and print.
The report must have hit a nerve with Cheong Wa Dae. After all, Koizumi’s reported blowing off of Roh’s March 1 address in 2005 as “for domestic use” pissed off a lot of people on this side of the East Sea and may have prompted the Korean president to write his angry letter to the people in which he declared diplomatic war on Tokyo.
What remains to be answered, of course, is how and why the letter was leaked (assuming, for a moment, that the report is actually what the JoongAng claims it to be, which has yet to be confirmed). The Chosun quotes some officials who think they have an idea:

Some government officials draw attention to the puzzle why a report criticizing President Roh and stirring up more Dokdo trouble was leaked. They say the leak aims to fuel anti-Japanese sentiment in Korea and vice versa and is thus another step in a long-term Japanese campaign to hoist the Dokdo issue on the global stage.

Well, I guess anything is possible. And is it just me, or has there been an usual number of Japan-related posts on this blog as of late?
Must be the cherry blossoms.

The OTHER report

Drowned out by this all was the fact that the content of another secret diplomatic report was leaked to the press on Wednesday, and this one might be of even more international significance. The Kyunghyang Shinmun, quoting a diplomatic source, said Korea’s ambassador to China, Kim Ha-jung, submitted an urgent report in February complaining that cooperation with China over the North Korean nuclear issue was no longer running smoothly.
The report, noting how Seoul had been using close cooperation with Beijing as a lever in the six-party talks, expressed concern that discord between Korea and China could lead to a collapse of the structure of the six-party talks.
According to a diplomatic source in Seoul, Ambassador Kim submitted a report to Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon in February in which he said China was no longer sharing intelligence with Korea as freely as it used to, and that Seoul should reconsider completely its policy of cooperating with Beijing on the North Korean nuclear issue.
The four-page report reportedly said that unlike in the past, Chinese authorities were extremely secretive with the Korean embassy concerning the content of agreements made between the Chinese and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il when KJI visited Beijing in January. The report also reportedly contained analysis of Chinese plans to strengthen aid to the North following Kim’s visit and the impact they would have on the Korean Peninsula.
The diplomatic source said Ambassador Kim believed that in light of recent Chinese moves, it would be difficult for Seoul to continue to cooperate with Beijing in persuading North Korea to resolve the nuclear issue. Kim advised Seoul to place more diplomatic focus on strengthening the Korea-U.S. relationship to deal with changes in the situation on Korean Peninsula.
Anyone else having Daehan Empire flashbacks?