The Marmot’s Hole

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The March edition of the Shin Dong-A magazine reported on a recent closed-door workshop at a government-affiliated research institute in Seoul during which two Korean Peninsula experts from the United States proposed joint research on a State Department-proposed project to formulate response plans to the collapse of North Korea. Well, closed-door or not, participants talked afterwards with the Dong-A, and based on what they said, the magazine was able to put together a pretty good picture of what was discussed during the meeting. The Shin Dong-A piece has been translated below for your reading enjoyment, courtesy the Marmot’s Hole Translation Service. Among some of the entertaining and educational things discussed:

• Immediate security issues include getting control of North Korean weapon systems (including WMDs). Cooperation with intelligence-rich nations like China important to learn location of underground North Korean military facilities;
• Civil affairs operations essential;
• A major question is how far other parties will recognize South Korean claims of jurisdiction over North Korean territory. Handling this issue in a balanced manner is key;
• Setting up provisional government will require UN Security Council resolution. Questions include whether to allow former North Korean officials to participate in provisional government;
• Potential point of contention is who gets operational control over occupation forces;
• In terms of economy, stopping the bleeding, so to speak, should not cost that much, given the low level of the North Korean economic system, but creating a system of development will require lots and lots of cash;
• Help from World Bank and other international financial bodies absolutely necessary. Questions include influence North Korean collapse will have on South Korea’s credit rating and whether Seoul should take over North Korea’s foreign debt after unification;
• Establishing a nation-wide food distribution system at an early date essential to reducing numbers of refugees;
• Korea-U.S. alliance important in dealing with North Korean collapse. Prior consensus needed concerning level of Chinese intervention in North Korea following collapse.

Now, I have no idea how much of the original piece is true, how much of it is the workshop participants making shit up, and how much is the Shin Dong-A’s Hwang Il-do practicing his creative writing. Regardless, the piece discusses the military, political, economic and humanitarian issues pertaining to “The Day After” a North Korean collapse, so if post-North Korea scenarios are your thing (and you’re sick of playing Mercenaries), read on.

(Hat tip to reader)

U.S. State Department ‘Day After’ Project in Preparation for N. Korean Collapse

In early February, two renowned North Korea experts at Washington think-tanks visited Seoul. They visited a government-affiliated research center and conducted a closed-door workshop for a very restricted number of participants. At the workshop, they proposed joint-research on a project–currently being worked on in accordance with a U.S. State Department proposal–in preparation for the collapse of North Korea. One wonders what are the reasons the United States, at this juncture, is considering what comes after a North Korean collapse, and what discussions took place at the workshop.

The U.S. experts who ran the workshop were Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) International Security Program senior fellow Joel Wit and Asia Foundation senior fellow Scott Snyder. Both are among the leading Korea experts in the United States. At the workshop, they proposed a project that reportedly began at the suggestion of the U.S. State Department and discussed its key points. The name of the project, which is being conducted to prepare response plans for South Korea, the United States and other surrounding states in the event of a North Korean collapse, is “The Day After.”
In particular, the project is quite significant as it focuses not on the process of a North Korean collapse, but rather on preparing concrete plans for the management of a post-collapse situation and reconstruction. It has a strongly “working-level plan” character; the post-North Korean-collapse plans are divided into military, political, economic and humanitarian sections, and it examines both the expected problems by comparing national reconstruction projects that have taken place in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia and the prerequisites to be prepared ahead of time.
Also noteworthy is that the United States and China are conducting similar closed-door research with one another. That research project, supposedly completed in early 2005, is reportedly being jointly-conducted by the U.S. Carnegie Endowment and a leading Chinese research institute. Some observe that when you consider how it’s been said the U.S. State Department is taking part in that research project as well, doesn’t this mean the U.S. White House has recently been jointly-preparing detailed scenarios in preparation for a North Korean collapse with key research bodies in each Northeast Asian nation through Washington think-tanks?
Of course, considering the sensitive nature of the matter, none of the governments involved are officially participating in the projects. The Korea experts involved in “The Day After” project who visited in February reportedly did not visit any government ministries or bureaus. Instead, they reportedly sounded out a policy research institute whether they’d be interested in joint-research on the project.
As the project itself is not yet completed, the bulk of the workshop was spent examining what things were expected to become major points of contention, said participants. Nevertheless, they said, the workshop suggested much about how Washington views a “North Korean collapse” situation and how it imagines the variables that would result from such a collapse. It appears the project would be conducted in a fashion embodying these points of contention and variables. The following is a summary of the discussion of “The Day After” project workshop, put together based on what was said by workshop participants.
Several factors could be applied to a North Korean collapse. Whether it’s accompanied by violence or not, or whether it comes about from outside intervention or for internal reasons could become major factors. Accordingly, you could summarize such collapse scenarios as a) collapse resulting from changes in the external situation; b) collapse resulting from distortions in the food distribution system; c) overthrow of the regime by a military coup; d) collapse resulting from an armed attack by the United States or another country. How the post-collapse situation would unfold differs greatly according to each situation, and the particulars for which surrounding nations would have to prepare would differ.
The problems that would follow a collapse could be divided into security factors (including military factors), political and international law factors, economic factors and factors pertaining to humanitarian aid. By weaving together the afore-mentioned four scenarios with those four factors, one can cover the issues that would need to be considered.
Firstly, the most immediate issues that will arise after a North Korean collapse are tied with security factors. Considering how North Korea is highly militarized, surrounding states might intervene to get control of North Korea’s weapons systems when signs of a North Korean collapse appear. The United States will make its first objective blocking the outflow of WMDs like nuclear weapons, which North Korea is presumed to possess (there could be disagreements between South Korea and the United States over pre-emptive intervention of this nature).
After a North Korean collapse, the first mission would be seize North Korean military facilities across the nation and disarm the North Korean People’s Army. Given the particular nature of North Korea’s military facilities, many of which have been fortified underground, one needs to get info on their location ahead of time, and here, cooperation with nations that have relatively more intelligence, like China, is essential. In the medium to long term, other tasks include dismantling WMDs and organizing a new North Korean military or merging it with the South Korean military.
Like what took place in Iraq, stabilizing the situation through civil affairs operations will be essential. In order to carry out civil affairs operation for over 20 million North Koreans, tens of thousands of troops will have to be inserted, and one has to consider whether this is realistically feasible. In particular, should part of the existing North Korean People’s Army go guerrilla, the military assets that would need to be inserted into North Korea could greatly increase.
Part of those civil affairs operation will be effectively controlling refugees. To do this, South Korea and the United States need to train before-hand specialized civil affairs units. Depending on the scenario, civil affairs operations might include chasing down members of the current North Korean regime in order to prevent additional unrest. Once civil affairs operations get on track, operations to create and train a new police force would take place.

Recognizing South Korean leadership

Next to examine are political and international law factors. In this section, the first issue is how far to recognize South Korean authority. From the start of a situation in North Korea, it’s very likely that South Korea will claim command over North Korea based on articles in the South Korean constitution. But since it would be impossible for South Korea to manage the situation on its own, given the conditions, intervention and assistance from surrounding nations would be essential. There could be also be disagreements over international law concerning South Korea’s rights. This is because in the case of China, Beijing might find it burdensome to share a border with the Republic of Korea, a U.S. ally. The core issue is to handle this dilemma in a balanced way.
It’s highly possible that the next task will be composing a provisional government. Organizing regional governments and securing personnel will take place simultaneously with building a central provisional government In order to give this process legitimacy under international law, a UN Security Council resolution will be essential. A possible point of contention will be whether to allow officials from the former North Korean government to participate in the provisional administration.
UN Security Council approval will also be necessary for the militaries of surrounding states to occupy North Korea. A possible point of contention will be which nation gets operational command of those nations’ units. A major variable is how much diplomatic effort South Korea puts forth to secure control over the situation and get approval from the international community for composing a unified government over the peninsula.
Next, economic factors are examined. This includes hardware factors like managing transportation, communications, water supply and industrial facilities, as well as maintaining and developing software factors like the distribution of goods and currency, foreign currency controls and finance. Given the low level of North Korea’s current economic system, the initial costs of “maintenance” won’t be that high, but in the long term, a lot of assets will need to be inserted to turn North Korea into a normal system.
Firstly, one needs to manage North Korea’s macroeconomic situation in a stable fashion. The first thing is to decide which parts of North Korea’s existing system to use and which parts to do away with. A possible point of contention will be whether South Korea inherits North Korea’s foreign debt. Other considerable tasks include activating the North Korean market and creating a pricing system.

To prevent refugees, solve food problem

The participation of the World Bank and other international financial bodies will be essential to restore North Korea’s social overhead capital or expand it. Considering the size of the South Korean economy, it would be impossible for Seoul to cope with such costs alone. In particular, the costs would differ greatly depending on the collapse scenario, and in the case of a collapse resulting from an armed attack from abroad or a civil war, these costs would increase sharply. One must look at before-hand the kinds and amounts of loans international financial bodies could provide for reconstructing North Korea, and against that background formulate a roadmap of economic development. Apart from this, Seoul must prepare itself for the influence a North Korean collapse could have on its international credit rating.
The last thing to be examined is humanitarian assistance. Depending on which scenario a North Korean collapse follows, the response of the international community could differ greatly. In the case of a sudden collapse accompanied by violence, refugees are inevitable. [Surrounding nations] are expected to have little choice other than to insert military assets to manage them.
It’s hard to predict the number of refugees to expect, but one could presume some 500,000 refugees wondering around North Korea, 200,000 crossing over into South Korea, and thousands fleeing into China. Surrounding nations need to decide ahead of time how many refugees to accept and through what measures. In the case of China, it’s very possible that it will try to control the flow of refugees out of concern about instability in border regions. If North Korea is stabilized politically within a short period of time, the flow of refugees out of the country will be greatly reduced.
Let’s look at the issue of refugees wandering around within North Korea. Looking at examples in other countries, most refugees leave their homes to look for food. Accordingly, The most urgent matter of business would be to quickly build and maintain in a stable manner a food distribution system across North Korea. In order to do this, a UN peacekeeping operation would be necessary, but essential is help from international bodies and NGOs like the World Food Program. The key to the successful provision of aid is to establish organic cooperation and efficient relations between the groups involved.

Prior consensus on Chinese intervention

As we’ve seen up till now, South Korea and the United States must closely cooperate at each stage to deal with a collapse of North Korea. In particular, the United States, which has life-or-death interests in the WMD issue, and South Korea, whose key task is to establish a unified government, must share a response plan formed through sufficient prior discussions. The Korea-U.S. alliance is very important for dealing with sudden changes in North Korea as well. In order to prevent the situation from taking a wrong turn due to unnecessary misunderstanding between nations, it’s also necessary to build a prior consensus on whether Chinese intervention at some level would be appropriate.
Even assuming the most optimistic scenario, a North Korean collapse will be accompanied by serious problems. Depending on the interests of surrounding nations, potential friction would be unavoidable. Nations like South Korea and the United States need to verify their current contingency plans through scenario-by-scenario simulations as they may be underestimating major points of contention that could arise. Because establishing a contingency plan in itself is a sensitive matter, it would be impossible to hold open discussions between governments concerning such plans. One must activate closed-door discussions between government-affiliated bodies and research institutes.