The Korea Times‘ headline reads, ‘Korea Needs US Forces After Unification,’ but in actual fact, it appears Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok’s comments were not quite as direct. What he actually said (and take a look at the Korean version here) is that the North mustn’t raise the issue of USFK during the process of creating of peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, and that the two sides “needed to see USFK as a constant.”
Still, I’m sure his comments will please none too much his detractors within and without the government.
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16 Comments
Lee doesn’t seem to realize that the embarkation of USFK for departure is gathering more and more momentum; the only open question really is when the “E” in DEROS turns from “estimated” to “exact”.
Lee apparently is hoping that there is some way to manipulate the US into hanging around to provide a unified Korea with some room to maneuvar vis-a-vis China. But that effort will fail because the US doesn’t need the complication (and the brain damage) involved in trying to accomplish its own China policies without compromising the interests of the squeeky wheel that Korea aims to become - particularly when Korea insists on being an exception to genuine free trade principles.
The pathetic thing is that this is just the kind of “balancing” — really just trying to play all other sides off one another for its own advantage — that mightily contributed to Korea’s fin d’siecle demise.
Obviously these knuckleheads still haven’t had the “lessons learned” session yet. Too busy indulging their han?
That’s not what he said explicitly or meant. In any case, the presence of USFK defies the logic of the peace process. There is no other rationale for the USFK to remain in the Korean peninsula other than to ensure the continuity of the armistice. South Koreans should stop being such wusses and take ownership of their own defense. If we remove US troop presence out of the equation, then North Koreans would have no more excuses for footdragging. Eliminate the main source of excuses.
“If we remove US troop presence out of the equation, then North Koreans would have no more excuses for footdragging.” That’s probably true–North Korean troops would waste no time marching into Seoul.
Seriously, the N. Korean elite have absolutely nothing to gain from making peace and everything to lose. Their entire raison d’etre is based on opposition to the democratic, capitalist South, and the U.S. troops being here or not are not a factor. Any peace accord removes the fundamental reason for the “military-first” policy and would undermine Kim Jongil’s rule.
Although Rumsfeld agrees with you about S.K. taking ownership of its own defense.
I dont think N Korea will invade S Korea. I based this on the fact that while N Korea has always protested US military presence and joint US-SK military exercises, N Korea has never protested about SK arms buildup. I believe N Koreans are reasonably certain that S Korea wont try to invade the North.
But lets say that the worst case scenario does happen. If the North initiates agression, then yeah there will be much collateral damage suffered by the South but ultimately the North will lose. Furthermore, China’s alliance with the North indicates that while China would come to the North’s aid if they are attacked first, the North is on its own if they start the aggression.
I agree that the Norks would not invade if the US troops all left, after all, the US would still provide naval and air support, which would scare the crap out of KJI. Even if the US made an agreement not to intervene no matter how much the South screamed, I’m still not sure that the North would try to invade. After all, why risk losing everything when he could quite easily dream up new excuses to bluster on about, and new sources of free goodies from the South? KJI is cunning enough to figure out other ways to wring aid and cash out of the South and China, whether the US is here or not.
But just because it’s highly unlikely that he will invade the South, doesn’t mean that reunification will happen. IMHO I’d say that reunification is very unlikely to happen at all. China might possibly allow it, only if the US is definitely and certainly out of the picture. I really doubt that reunification is going to happen for a very long time and if it ever does, I highly doubt that it will happen in a way that pleases South Koreans.
Can anyone think of some specific (not “he’s an anti-American asshole”) reason why Lee Jong Seok would think otherwise?
It was (hopefully) a joke to say the norks would hustle down here–I don’t think N.K. would attack S.K. unprovoked. However, no one has made a good case for why any overtures by the South would lead to reunification if, as I said, any peace accord removes the fundamental reason for the “military-first” policy and would undermine Kim Jongil’s rule. The odds are also high that, as Snow said, reunification will happen in a way that does not please S. Koreans, or even that China sets up a puppet gov’t in N.K. and effectively absorbs it. Pushing the U.S. out of the picture simply hastens those prospects.
Of course, it doesn’t take a genious to understand that Korea needs the US military presence indefinately. And NK is only a single factor in a much larger global equation.
It doesn’t take a geopolitical analyst to realize that the Far East belongs to China, Russia and Japan, that Korea is irrelevent, and that the US is the only stabilizing influence here. It doesn’t take an Einstein to know that Korea is in no position to either defend itself or survive reunification.
And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that the US’s message to NK: “put down the nukes and you can enjoy all the benefits that the global economy will bestow on you” is an tested strategy for bringing the moderate factions to political prominence within NK. Remember that this strategy of the stick of military superiority accompanied by the carrot of global economic inclusion brought a peaceful end to global communism in the USSR, Germany, Eastern Europe and has changed the face of Asia.
Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok is no genious. He is simply one of the informed people who understands the truth that without the US, there can be no Republic of Korea.
Bluejives,
“Furthermore, China’s alliance with the North indicates that while China would come to the North’s aid if they are attacked first, the North is on its own if they start the aggression.”
What happened in 1950?
China will not only support the North’s invasion as it has done in VietNam but also supply materials, weapons and even soldiers to eat up South Korea.
Wake up!!! China is not America. Hungry Chinese ($1,000 per capita) will soak out all major industries from SK and make it into a gigantic Gullag like NK is right now.
China can open up NK tomorrow if China wants. But, no way Josei, China wants NK poor and ignorant. SK will join NK as VietNam eventually fell.
Pseudo-intellectual like yourself have to stop spreading lies about China.
Lee Jong-Seok, being a house nigger for this pro-North and anti-American regime, wanted to raise the issue about American presence in Korean peninsula once more. He is hinting through a roundabout way that there is no need for the US military presence when two Koreas are in “cooperative” mood.
These Korean Commies think the unification is Korea’s salvation! Rho once said that he does not care about Korean economy as long as two Koreas can unite. I guess he does not care about the US military either. Korean Commies do not mind being servants to the Chinese as long as unification can be achieved. “Kick out all foreigners and let Korean people unite”(Korean Commie Manifesto).
NK has done that. People are starving to death on the street!
Then, these ignorant Commies will say the US is starving NK people. WTF. Kim Jongil, who follows Chinese masters verbatim, is not letting the international food workers from coming in and distributing food. Like African warlords who rather see his people die of hunger than lose his grip on the people, KJI is following his father’s footsteps. Killing Koreans, his own people.
China loves KJI. China, through KJI, is challenging the US. By appearing as a peaceful broker, it pretends to curb NK’s anti-American activities. The fact is China can stop all NK’s activities tomorrow if it stops sending oil to that miserable place. But, oh no, no way, KJI is following China’s order verbatim. He has been and always will be.
China is behind it all.
And what makes you so sure that US military presence or even US military power will last indefinitely? The US cannot even control Iraq and now they’re looking to attack Iran. The US military is spread too thin. Debts are mounting from military adventures. Korea needs to operate under the assumption that US military umbrella wont last forever. The ROK needs to take ownership of her own defense and become like an Israel of East Asia.
You dont know what you are talking about here.
Right now, North Korea is one big quantum uncertainty. You can throw as many sticks and carrots at North Korea, but the desire to open must come from within North Korea itself. There must be a North Korea Gorbachev to begin a program of NK glasnost and perestroika. SK’s role is to make the conditions as favorable as possible towards that end. The US just wants to NK into a microwave oven and out pops out regime change. US military adventurism doesnt work. Have we not learned anything from Vietnam, Bosnia, Somalia and currently Iraq?
“There must be a North Korea Gorbachev to begin a program of NK glasnost and perestroika.” Yet, there is none. In the face of that reality, is it better to sustain the current regime as S.K. is doing with unconditional aid and hope against hope that KJI’s heir will somehow be a “Gorbachev”?
There are a lot of unpursued options that S.K. can take, the most important being to work with the U.S. in demanding nuclear disarmament. The norks were offered a very generous deal for that, but S.K. undermines it with free money, just as it undermined the World Food Program by giving unmonitored food aid to N.K.
It would also be good if S.K. joined with the U.N. and EU to condemn N.K.’s human rights abuses and demand that N.K. release abducted South Korean POWs and civilians–in other words, grow a spine and be a part of the international consensus rather than an obstacle. I’m fairly certain the U.S. would put the military option that much farther down the list if S.K. was actively helping to set the policy.
“Right now, North Korea is one big quantum uncertainty.”
- To the outsiders, NK seems illogical because China is jerking the chain. One day KJI may say A and the very next day the word from China comes and he has to say B.
“You can throw as many sticks and carrots at North Korea, but the desire to open must come from within North Korea itself.”
- No, from China. China must let NK open up.
“There must be a North Korea Gorbachev to begin a program of NK glasnost and perestroika.”
-China does not want NK to open up. China wants to use NK and the present form of the government, KJI dictatorship, is the best for their pupose.
“SK’s role is to make the conditions as favorable as possible towards that end.”
-SK is being jerked around by China as well. It is losing a valuable friend(the US) and regressing to an old status- being a servant to the Chinese. I like to see Lee MyungBak break this slow march to slavery.
“The US just wants to NK into a microwave oven and out pops out regime change. US military adventurism doesnt work.”
-It almost worked. But, Kim “pro-Commie” DaeJung sent money in the tune of billions to KJI. Also, China is supporting the present form of NK government.
“Have we not learned anything from Vietnam, Bosnia, Somalia and currently Iraq?”
-These are all necessary and useful campaigns. You just want to sit home and play with kids till the next 9/11 happens? Then what? Talk to the terrorists and give them more aids? Talk through the UN? Iraq worked; without Iraq, more terrorists would have attacked and American dollar would have plummetted with oils being traded with euro. Don’t just say something did not work. Give me an alternative solution.
The British got fat and dumb after the victory in WWI. Peaceniks took over the government and slowly disarmed England. What happened next? Hitler almost ate up England.
The US is planning on big “adventurism” every twenty years and small ones in between. It is healthy form of national defense.
Otherwise, expect continuous 9/11s, not only from Moslems but also from Russians, the Chinese and South American drug lords, let alone NK. You have to be strong to be a top dog. Otherwise, just shut up, sit down and pay off.
Bluejives:”The US just wants to NK into a microwave oven and out pops out regime change.
Wrong. The US is following the same strategy that brought world communism to its knees - putting pressure on the hardliners in order to promote the emergence of more moderate factions. If you don’t think there are numerous factions and loyalties within the North Korean power structure, then you know nothing of the history of Korea. And if you don’t understand how pressure on the hardliners effected worldsweeping changes, bringing about the exact vision that the US had for the world 50 years ago, then you know nothing of the history of the cold war either.
“US military adventurism doesnt work.”
It does work - spectacularly.
“Have we not learned anything from Vietnam, Bosnia, Somalia and currently Iraq?”
Yes, a US presence in Iraq is certainly a strategic coup for numerous reasons. Here are some:
1) new entrents into the global economy looking to the Middle East for oil (China, for one) will need to deal with a US presence in the region - a stablizing influence.
2) the creation of a Turkish style secular Moslem state will enhance the process of democracy in the Middle East, putting pressure on the monarchies to reform.
3) The fundamentalist Shiites may be chequed in favor of the more moderate Sunni Moslems.
4) Since 80% of the Iraqi insergents are from other Arab states, Iraq serves as an ideal way to draw out and eliminate farflung extremist elements.
What we’ve learned is that it takes work to maintain a global economic order. Not every attempt of solution can be smooth or absolutely correct but the world today is remarkably close to the vision America established for it decades ago. This record of success is absolutely astounding.