I guess the U.S. shouldn’t count of support from young Koreans if it chooses to attack North Korea’s nuclear facilities:
In the survey of 1,000 youngsters aged between 18 and 23, conducted by The Korea Times and its sister paper the Hankook Ilbo on Feb. 16-19, nearly 48 percent of respondents said that if the U.S. attacked nuclear facilities in North Korea, Seoul should act on Pyongyang’s behalf and demand Washington stop the attack.
But 40.7 percent of them said Seoul should keep a neutral stance in the event of such attacks, while 11.6 percent said South Korea needs to act in concert with the United States.
Not that one should interpret the survey results as anti-Americanism, of course:
“To me, the survey does not hint at our youngster’s hatred for the United States,” Kim Soo-jin, politics professor of Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said in a telephone interview. “I interpret it as their opposition to any attempt to solve the nuclear crisis by armed force.”
(Hat tip to Lost Nomad)
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61 Comments
If it’s a Korea Times survey the results are very dubious, but I found it interesting that:
Half of the respondents considered themselves “progressive” (50.1 percent), while 21.1 percent of them said they are “conservative.”
And yet:
As potential voters in the 2007 presidential elections, 20.1 percent of respondents picked Rep. Park Geun-hye, chairwoman of the largest opposition Grand National Party (GNP), as the most appropriate candidate to become the next president. Lee Myung-bak, Seoul city mayor and a GNP member, placed second with an 18.5 percent approval rating, followed by former prime minister Goh Kun (14.6 percent) and chairman of the ruling Uri Party Chung Dong-young (8.5 percent).
What a schizo society….
That part of the poll didn’t mean much to me, because it said if the US attacked the North without consulting the South. It was a loaded question.
The item that seemed important to me was “Nearly 40 percent of respondents chose China as the partner most important for South Korea to keep friendly relations with. The United States came next with 18.4 percent, and North Korea came third with 18 percent.”
When the US is 20 percentage points below China, and far from 50%, on the friend list, and equal to North Korea, is time to stop putting American troops at risk if the North starts to crumble and decides to take out as many people as it can as it falls.
RE: michael
“And yet:
As potential voters in the 2007 presidential elections, 20.1 percent of respondents picked Rep. Park Geun-hye, chairwoman of the largest opposition Grand National Party (GNP), as the most appropriate candidate to become the next president.”
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Fact of the matter is, even these stupid kids who love to emulate the French in every way, like a typical mindless American Liberals, are realistic when it come to the world of “real politics.” Maybe it’s beginning to dawn on them that Anti-American politics has real consequence like America Army really thinking about pulling out of Korea and letting them tether in the winds with nothing but a “Maginal Line” between them and the Chinese Hoard to the North.
I don’t know if its the USs interest to completely pull out of here, just yet, but I really hope they draw down the number of troops further and further. Do they really need to have more than 8,000 or 5,000 (try 3,000) in the country, as long as they have lots of high-tech weapons are still here aimed at KJI?
Support how? Shoot at the US army soldiers?
They are just saying that to stop the US attack on NK nuclear facilities. Once that happens, these Korean college students will fight as NK retaliates with long-range guns. There is no other option for these young people but to fight these NK bastards.
NKs have threatened the most powerful country in the world. They must pay for their actions.
I think the first thing that’s being overlooked is that the point of the question was if youths would support UNILATERAL US action against nK weapons sites. That’s a far cry from saying ‘SK youth would not support a US attack on nK’.. something reeks of typical sensationalist Korean journalism and then quoted out of context to make it seem more insidious than need be.
Koreans aren’t stupid… it’s like getting dragged into a fight by a belligerent friend with some thugs… and you’re the one that’s going to take the brunt of the hits because it’s in your house the fight takes place while the friend lives halfway across town.
Let’s say the US attacks nK sites. Does nK lob 100,000 artillery shells at Washington DC?
If you were in the shoes of someone who was going to live here permanently and called this home.. you’d sure as hell want a diplomatic and multilateral solution to this problem before any military action was taken militarily.
Secondly, a lot of reactionary types seem to think that the ROK should be forever indebted to the United States and kowtow to every whim and wish of the US. C’mon, the world changes. I think a solid US/ROK alliance is a fantastic thing. Korea is growing up though… and the US has empty nest syndrome. I don’t think China should be a favored ally over the US, however, several thousand years of history is hard to just brush aside.
Random, it’s a totally loaded question meant to elicit exactly the response you have. Washington has repeatedly said it has no intention to unilaterally attack N.K. Now I know the big bad U.S. is not to be trusted, but don’t you find it odd that they didn’t also ask the kids who they would side with if N.K. attacked Seoul (as N.K. has threatened to do dozens of times)? It’s a little biased, and plays into the Korean uri minjok victimization mentality.
Also, can you cite some of these “reactionary types” who “seem to think that the ROK should be forever indebted to the United States and kowtow to every whim and wish of the US”? I haven’t seen statements from the U.S. gov’t to that effect…and I doubt the U.S. has “empty nest syndrome” when S. Korea has yet to grow up and pay for its own defense.
I agree that several thousand years of history is hard to just brush aside, especially when its a steamroller coming down hard on your heels. It’s good you don’t think China should be a favored ally over the U.S. because China will overtake S. Korea in most of the latter’s main industries within 25 years, and S.K. might want the preferred trade status of an ally with the U.S. to offset that.
Michael, while Washington has never stated officially that it would go that route… there are people of the opinion that a pre-emptive strike might be the best option to remove nK as a nuclear player. I don’t advocate this course of action… I’m just saying that there are people who are considering this as a viable option when it used to be something that belonged to the fringe element.
Can I cite some of these reactionary types? Read some of the comments from previous readers… not only in this article but in prior articles… I would have to go through two years of blogs to get the really juicy ones from marmot’s hole
Whenever the ROK government doesn’t toe the line with the US, the US brings to bear a lot of pressure and invokes US support of the ROK since the surrender of Japan.
It’s a visible theme that American administrations expect the ROK government to fall in line with little to no discussion on policy in the Far East… this was especially true during the Cold War.
However, however idiosyncratic Pres. Roh is… he is still the president of a sovereign government and when he enacts policies he feels are in the best interest of Korea, there are immediately cries of protest from American ex-pats in Korea as well as disapproval from the American government. The US has a Big Brother attitude to basically every nation in the world. It’s especially bullyish in a policy aspect with South Korea.
Then again, I think Roh is a flake and Park being elected should stabilize to a great degree the US/ROK alliance.
You’re right about China… I think today’s South Korean youth are being pragmatic in embracing China… but don’t realize how dangerous China can be both militarily and more importantly economically.
With industrial espionage rampant in interactions with Chinese companies… you can expect to see some technological sectors in particular being overtaken within 11 years. Arenas that South Korea currently leads the entire world.
oh additionally, you mention that S. Korea has yet to grow up and pay for its defense… and yet who fits the bill for the American presence in Korea? It’s true the ROK Government doesn’t have enough money to buy all the technology needed to fill the void that would exist if ALL US troops were to be withdrawn… but you have to give credit where credit’s due. The Koreans pay their fair share.
I think Random and Michael were right on.
It was a loaded question meant to get the Koreans to respond in the negative. And I think Michael was right in saying it was bound to pull out people like Random too.
Those poor Koreans, with the Arrogant Americans forcing them to kowtow to us all the time when they have grown to big for that. “I am Korean. Hear me roar!”
As I said earlier, I didn’t pay attention to the quotes about what side they would choose if the US attacked the North without consulting SK. I also think Baduk is right — that if it came down to war, they would line up and fight the North to the death just like the US reversed itself in WWII and somewhat like SK did in the Korean War — there was a reason Kim Il Sung thought enough of the South Koreans would turn their weapons on the Rhee government — but those reasons proved wrong.
I disagree much, however, with the idea of drawing down US forces in Korea to a few thousand —– thus leaving the obligation to fight full tilt for South Korea if a 2nd Korean War came.
South Korea can defend itself.
South Korea likes to pretend it is no longer kowtowing.
South Korea wants to back a great Asian hope to contend with the American bully.
More importantly, South Korea’s priorities have shifted away from those of the US —- SK sees its most important task as preventing unification with North Korea through collapse - so it is working to give the North material aid —- which more often than not thwarts what the US believes is important now - putting pressure on Pyongyang to make a real deal.
Along this same line, the South Korean government, with the approval of at least half the society, goes even further and often seeks to shield North Korea politically. The government warns the US about as much as it does the US.
So, why in the world do Americans want to keep a few thousand troops in South Korea when we know this about SK and when we know two other things –
1. North Korea is terminally ill. The only question is when and how it will die.
and
2. The North Korean regime is the kind that would see lashing out as it goes down as an imperative.
Why keep US troops in a nation that loves to not like the US role in its society, that hopes to replace the US one day if a good alternative does fullfill its potential (China), and works counter to policy goals the US thinks are important to its future security? —- when those troops could very easily be attacked one day when the North falls and pull the US into a Korean peninsula conflict when the global Cold War has been over for more than a decade?
Given the reality of the NK threat, all the talk about force projection and can’t predict the future and other things that try to justify keeping troops in South Korea or in a unified Korea ring hollow and sound like forced justifications of a status quo that people see as too much a headache to think about ending.
End it.
Put US troops on safer ground outside of South Korea.
Stop risking so much for increasingly deminished return.
When the return already fell below the cost/benefit ratio sometime in the early to mid-1990s.
That should have been “I am Korea. Hear me roar.”
And if you check google for “South Korea” — you’ll see the poll was picked up by newspapers around the world. That will probably be the most significant thing about it.
To all of us, this is old news. It won’t be to others, though I doubt it will be remembered for more than 2 or 3 days.
“More importantly, South Korea?? priorities have shifted away from those of the US ?? SK sees its most important task as preventing unification with North Korea through collapse - so it is working to give the North material aid ?? which more often than not thwarts what the US believes is important now - putting pressure on Pyongyang to make a real deal.”
ding ding ding!
South Korea in it’s current economic state cannot support a collapsed nK. Look at Germany after reunification… this is much worse.
Reunification is great… they just can’t afford it right now… maybe next year
“1. North Korea is terminally ill. The only question is when and how it will die.
and
2. The North Korean regime is the kind that would see lashing out as it goes down as an imperative.”
nK has been dying since it was born. It will only die when the ROK government ceases to provide trillions of won in aid. or is it terminal? through illegal activities, KJI has been more than capable in maintaining a personal cash flow at the expense of the nK populace.
does anyone really know for sure? will KJI employ a scorched earth policy in his final moments of power? we dunno… and I don’t particularly care to find out.
as far as the Korean backlash on the US hegemony of which it is a part of ultimately… I have this sneaking suspicion it’s trying to be the bat from Aesop’s fable of the birds and the beasts. Good ol Korean pragmatism for you.
Random, check out Charles Kim’s comments here about the U.S.-S.K. military budget–he was involved in negotiations for the U.S. and says the ROK is getting a sweet deal for its defense expenses. I agree Roh is a flake, and yet no one in Washington is talking about regime change…Korea deserves better than him.
Obviously the U.S. pursues its agenda around the world, and often I disagree with it, but a lot of the new initiatives against N.K. are good ones and don’t involve military intervention.
US being the “World Police” that it is, needs S. Korea just as much as it needs Japan. US can be a great powerhouse only if it controls the world esp. China in the next few years. It cant afford to be “not a friend” of S.Korea. China will probably overtake US in the next 20 years economically and maybe in another 50-100 years, in defence sectors. US cant let that happen. Then its strong hold on the worlds oil will reduce. They are already cozying up with India to have a patner on the east side of China. It needs places like S.Korea,Japan and Taiwan to maintain some balance of power in the region.
A takeover of Asia by the big red dragon bully is just not good for the world. So even if US pulls out its troops from here,it cant afford a takeover of S.Korea by N.Korea, which has strong ties with Korea. The rest of the world will be just pawns in the power game between US and China in the the new cpl of decades.
and these neocons here, when they talk about China, it’s as if america is not benefitting from the cheap labor of the Chinese. Look, Walmart is the 8th biggest trading partner of China! americans could not even make their own aprons anymore
and do not forget about the treasury bonds that the Chinese are holding. The same treasury bonds that feed the military-industrial complex no? jeez, the Chinese are financing the manufacture of war materiel that might, in the end, be used against them.
Go ahead, Korea; condemn the attack. It is the only way for you to save precious face after secretly giving consent to launch such an attack.
This is the all too familiar story of the barracks slut who cries “rape” after her boyfriend refuses to pay.
Michael,
I definitely will… I have somewhat of an inside perspective too so it’ll be interesting to see what he has to say.
as far as nK policy initiatives… i tend to think the cultural differences and ultimately nK’s brinksmanship makes diplomatic progress nearly impossible. ultimately, once nK declares its nuclear weapons capabilities full on the US will be hard pressed not to take some sort of action/sanctions.
you can full well imagine the possible consequences when nK decides to put its nuclear technology on the market … terrorist groups around the globe are rubbing their hands with glee even as we speak.
something’s got to be done… unfortunately there isn’t a consensus between the US and the ROK.
there needs to be a revamp of the UN imho.
usinkorea,
“1. North Korea is terminally ill. The only question is when and how it will die.
and
2. The North Korean regime is the kind that would see lashing out as it goes down as an imperative.”
Contrary to this popular scenario, NK will not go down or die. As long as China supports the present dictatorship of KJI, NK will live even if the half of its population die of hunger. China must answer for this. And, about its continuing support of NK nuke by supplying oil to that regime.
“End it.”
President Bush warned about “increasing sentiment toward isolationism”. Pull out troops->SK collapse->united Korea attacks Japan with China’s backing->Japan collapse->(Korea Japan) attacks the CONUS.
Far-fetched? I don’t see any other scenario.
President Bush warned about ??ncreasing sentiment toward isolationism?? Pull out troops->SK collapse->united Korea attacks Japan with China?? backing->Japan collapse->(Korea Japan) attacks the CONUS.
Far-fetched? I don?? see any other scenario.
what’s far-fetched is thinking S. Korea would collapse if the US pulled troops out of the peninsula.
A united Korea wouldn’t be able to muster an offensive army for decades even if that were to flicker on the consciousness of the Korean public.
What’s most probable in the next ten years is escalation of tension in the Taiwan strait with increased support of Taiwan militarily from the US and China getting irked by Taiwan’s bolstering of its autonomy.
China invades Taiwan, US intervenes unilaterally prior to UN support… SK hesitates to assist in US action and reluctantly enters on the US side with Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Depending on the situation in Iraq within the next 10 years… The Brits should enter the fray as well. What’s gonna be hairy is the stance Russia takes. A Sino-Russo coalition would be brutal.
India not being particularly a fan of China could possibly join the party too on the US side.
I find this to be far more plausible than the collapse of KS and a ROK/nK unified field army invading Japan.
When the US leaves, Koreans will have no friends!!!!! No international support. No ally to depend on. A baby in the woods. A virgin in a red-light district. Very similar to VietNam after Paris peace talk. Do you know that four countries signed the paper stating that they would come and help VietNam to defend itself? None came.
How long can SK last? I guess not too long, maybe a couple of years. During that time, SK Commies will rally to the max. The conservatives will come under harrassment from these Chinese-paid hoodlums and be hunted down like the Jews under Hitler.
What would Koreans eventually do? Many including intellectuals will think two Koreas can unite and join the Great Chinese Empire(GCE) and prevent the war with China. They will join China camp.
Koreans will die when the war between China and Japan breaks out. Koreans will be used as the front troops for GCE.
i’m just wondering what intellectuals you hang out with this that say this will happen
Nations do not have “friends”, only interests.
Right now, SK is just a giant forward base for the US military not just because of NK, but as a key component of a grander, unspoken China containment policy. It is an impediment to the engagement policy and an impediment to the peace process. As long as US troops remain in SK, NK understands that it is in a state of war. Therefore, the ROK needs to take ownership of its own defense as quickly as possible and gradually phase out US troop presence.
In a way I agree with you, Bluejives, in that it might be better for the U.S. to tighten sanctions on N.K. and force KJI out of power to be off the peninsula, because there would be no policy conflict with S.K. at that point. The U.S. can handle the region from Japan (that’s not an endorsement of U.S. policy, just an acknowledgemnt of reality). I’m certain S.K. can handle its own defense, but really doubt the efficacy of engagement or the possibility of peace without regional coordination.
Also, I don’t get why the current S.K. gov’t is so utterly spineless about insisting on regular family reunions and the return of S. Korean POWs and kidnapped civilians after all the one-sided “engagement” it has done so far. Wouldn’t that be a purely domestic matter that has no impact on the nuke issue?
Kind of apropo of nothing, but this Reuters story was amusing:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenew.....161947.htm
It’s impossible to imagine Korea not up in arms over something, makes life here, ummm, interesting….
Bluejives, I like the idea of the US getting out of here eventually, too, but the future might not be as simple as many Koreans assume. Can we be sure that reunification will even happen at all? After all, I’m not so sure that China would ever let it happen (they’d probably rather see a weak North dependent on China for the long term). Also, does Korea want to stand as its own independent nation in a sea of sharks? If and when things ever get nasty in this part of the world, who’s going to come to Korea’s aid? Do you really trust the Chinese to act in Korea’s best interest? How about the Japanese? At least America’s interests and Korea’s have coincided to a fairly high degree in the past, helping to fuel massive growth in the South.
I think Koreans should be careful about what they wish for, cause they may find themselves in a position they never planned for, with little recourse, having thrown the US out.
Yeah, I saw that article too.
I saw some pics sometime ago of SK farmers violently protesting trade agreements to allow US agricultural goods to the Korean market. That’s how I discovered that Hyundai shipping containers make excellent barricades. I once got a dose of tear gas when I was in Korea. Felt like a very high concentration of whatever is that stuff in onions that stings your eyes. I also read somewhere that Koreans have developed some of the world’s finest riot control gear and techniques due to decades of experience and provide consulting services to the Israelis, Turks, and Russians.
I posted about this more than a month ago, as it was reported in Japan. The percentage of people that replied that they would help North Korea if ‘America attacked North Korea without the permission of the South Korean government’ was 47.6%, which matches the poll by these Korean newspapers.
“Protests are just a part of life in Seoul,” shrugged one police official.
You don’t even know how true this is… College students regularly protest … almost like attending a social function. You can tell the depth of their feelings for an issue by how quickly they scatter the moment inclement weather rears its ugly head.
On the other hand, back in the 80’s, I remember riding a bus through clouds of tear gas. The riot police were in in much greater force then.
My mom used to tell me stories of how they would hold demonstrations in the sixties… it was very kumbahya and idealistic. Koreans in general are very zealous and passionate compared to westerners. But most younger kids honestly don’t give a rats ass about political events that are ongoing in this country. If you talk to a large number of 20 somethings, most of them don’t have a clue about a grasp of global culture or current events either. However, you have to give credit to their notion of civic responsibility, when is the last time you ever heard of 50 percent voter turnout in the US or Canada among 20-24 year olds?
The future is an uncertain beast and nothing’s for sure. However, there are concrete steps that can be done in the present to tilt things in favor of peaceful reunification. There are two main directions: war and peace. This is the criterion with which I judge all events that happen regarding dialogue/interactions with NK and the larger issue of reunification. Is it more conduscive to war or to peace? The US is a military power so it will try to use force to produce quick results. But it only lead to more of the same old, which is a frustrated state of stalemate at best or disastrous escalation at worst. SK is not a military power, but it is an economic power, so it will use economic tools to foster not quick results but to sustain a long-term process which we hope will eventually “soften” NK and pave the way for reunification. At the heart of this philosophy is the faith and belief that NK’s are human beings too (not hopelessly brainwashed weirdo wackos as Western political media propaganda insists) and they want to prosper also.
Koreans dont trust anyone, Chinese, Japanese, or even the US, to act in Korea’s best interest. The Norks are a big of a headache to the Chinese as they are to anyone else. But they are a useful tool in dealing with the US. But if hypothetically the North Korean threat were neutralized somehow, via reunification or whatever, and US troops are still on the Korean peninsula, then there can only be one reason for that. And I dont think the Chinese will be amused by that. It is Korea’s diplomatic and foreign policy responsibility to continuously clarify China’s NK stance while maintaining good relations with China.
bleh. too bad i can’t go back and edit the typos.
i meant to say ‘most don’t have a clue about or a grasp of…’
The first time I was in Korea, in 1997, I was wandering around Seoul and stepped off the subway somewhere downtown only to get a blast of teargas on the steps going outside–that was intense. My hat’s off to people who can keep going while breathing that stuff.
My political upbringing was far to the left of even a lot of the protestors, and yet on N.K. I sound like a Korean “conservative” because I think it’s morally right to sanction and push the regime out of existence on behalf of the oppressed in N.K. who are unable to do so alone. I don’t think working with the U.S. and the EU and UN toward that end is “kowtowing,” it’s a moral obligation the Roh gov’t is abdicating. Just throwing money at the KJI regime is going to make matters worse, because there is no real reciprocity–it’s set a bad precedent.
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RE: Bluejives
Quote:
“As long as US troops remain in SK, NK understands that it is in a state of war. Therefore, the ROK needs to take ownership of its own defense as quickly as possible and gradually phase out US troop presence.”
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Once again, people like you live in a delusional lala-land that does not exist. China owns North Korea. Kim Jong “the mentally” IL one has absolutely no say so in whatever politics that goes on in his own country. The mentally IL One can’t even wipe his own ass without getting an O.K from Chinese beurocrats.
This delusional idea of glorious “Korean Unification,” is something you people will have get out of your thick skull. This will never happen. China is looking to expand it’s Empire, not shrink it. Some of you people has yet to wake up to this Reality. I know it’s difficult, but…plz try.
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further Quote:
“Koreans dont trust anyone, Chinese, Japanese, or even the US, to act in Korea?? best interest.”
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I don’t think you’re really getting it. Obviously Koreans wish all these Empires would just leave you guys alone because you guys are the cutest people in the world, but, once again, you’re not living in a real world that I would recognize. It doesn’t matter what you think, what Koreans think, whhat anyone thinks. As the old Dylan song goes, “We all have to serve somebody.”
Sure it would be nice to live in a cute world where everyone got along, but that is not the Reality that we are living in. I hope you understand this point:
In a real world, there will always be Empires, and in this Reality, you have to decide who’s Master you’re willing to serve. That is the Reality we’re all living in.
It’s a question of choice, not some fantasy “niceness,” we all prefer to live in.
Unfortunately, being a small country, stuck bewteen two of the most powerful Nations in Asia is not best feeling in the world, but, it isn’t like you can pack up and move somewhere. You have to deal with it.
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“The Norks are a big of a headache to the Chinese as they are to anyone else.”
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North Korea isn’t a headache; they are a “Human Shield,” to the Chinese
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“But they are a useful tool in dealing with the US. But if hypothetically the North Korean threat were neutralized somehow, via reunification or whatever, and US troops are still on the Korean peninsula, then there can only be one reason for that. And I dont think the Chinese will be amused by that. It is Korea?? diplomatic and foreign policy responsibility to continuously clarify China?? NK stance while maintaining good relations with China.”
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I don’t know quite what to say, you really think the Chinese are “nice people,” who will listen to Reason? People who have no qualms about running over their own people with tanks, in front of the whole wide world, certainly will not have time to take anyone else seriously.
I agree, Origami. I would say, do business with the Chinese, but don’t cosy up to them and certainly don’t trust them. And carrying a big stick won’t be enough in this neighbourhood. Better to have the backing of someone with real power.
bluejives,
You’re so much like the present administration. You’re stuck on “unification” as if that would solve all problems - including the class struggle between the rich and the poor.
You are so wrong!
Let’s assume that China, Japan and Russia just sit around and do nothing and two Koreas can unite. Do you think NK will automatically assume the secondary citizen status? No way, my friend. They will want to rule the peninsula. They will be damning SK for being the slaves to the US for last fifty plus years and they will want at least one half of what you have. Or, more than half.
Are you willing to give one half? If not, shut up. “Unification” will cost, cost and cost. It will wipe out all the advances Korea has made in last decades. And, back to the poor house of 1960s.
And, as many have pointed out, the United Korea will have to kowtow to China. Otherwise, Korea will have to fight China. Good luck on that. Do you think any country will come to help Korea? UN? F***, No. None at all.
Kowtowing to China means all women becoming Chinese whores and young boys being slaves to Chinese farmers.
NK has been doing these kowtowing for long time. Soon, SK will join them. Good luck!
Too many f***ing intellectuals in Korea call for unification. The outcome is plain to see.
China will slowly extract everything good from Korea. Hyundai and Samsung will be relocated to Beizing.
Korean peninsula will be a gigantic “poor house” as NK is right now. That is what China wants.
That is what China wants Korea to be. A poor servant.
Chinese people have warts with long hairs growing out of them. Why would anyone want to be controlled by people with long hairy warts?
Origami, you obviously havent read the report by the International Crisis Group regarding the current nature of relations between NK and China, China’s priorities, and the limits of Chinese influence on NK. NK-China relations are analogous to SK-US relations, both are strained and problematic. Please be more informed before you decide to spew some more proctologically originated assertions.
Korea had its own version of Tianamen Square in 1980 called the Kwangju Massacre. So are you saying that Koreans are not nice people who wont listen to reason as well?
Folks, when all is said and done, there are four possibilities:
1. Things dont change.
2. There is a military strike on NK.
3. NK is squeezed to the point of collapse through sanctions.
4. Pursuing a positional strategy with regard to NK through conditional engagement and economic joint ventures. What bombs and threats cannot achieved will be accomplished by the powerful liberalizing effects of market forces.
BTW, I think most Koreans accept the fact that reunification cannot and should not happen overnight, but must be worked towards via a managed process that could take many years or even a few decades.
Number 1 is unacceptable both to Koreans and other countries for reasons which I dont think I have to spell out. Otherwise, we wouldnt even be having this discussion.
2. US strikes NK, NK retaliates with rockets and artillery fire on Seoul. Game over. Basically, in this scenario the SK capital is sacrificed just so that the US could take out NK nuclear facilities. Not an acceptable option.
3. If there are anybody who is being delusional it is the ones who really believe NK would collapse via sanctions. This only demonstrates how these people poorly understand and furthermore underestimate NK. But for argument’s sake. lets say that sanctions do succeed and NK collapses somehow. How a situation which causes the ordinary NKs to starve and suffer much more worse than they already are while the powerful elite still get their supplies smuggled via the porous Chinese border immune to US imposed sanction is helpful in anyway is beyond me. But lets say for argument’s sake that somehow it leads to a collapse. A “collapse” necessarily means that the ruling powers and authorities are no longer functional. This means that there is no one to enforce law and order. Uh, whats going to happen in a country where everyone is starving, destitute (because of the sanctions) and suddenly there is no more authority? Extreme lawlessness, lootings, rapes, killings, chaos…basically all the usual things that come with anarchy. This is not what I would deem a “managed process”. A collapsed NK would give the Chinese the perfect reason to occupy NK and impose martial law because the anarchy effect would spill over into their borders as well. This is not acceptable also. But if the Chinese hypothetically withheld from intervention, would SK alone be able to control the NK situation? I dont know. Would a combined US-SK coalition take over NK then? If thats the case, then we would effectively be exchanging a DMZ at the 38th parallel for another one at the Yalu River, but this time vis-a-vis against the Chinese. Sino-Korean relations would suffer greatly for that. This also is not an acceptable option purely from the Korean perspective. Also this would be an example of a forced sudden reunification executed not on Korea’s term and would become a huge liability for SK in economic terms. Not an acceptable option.
My other thesis is that US involvement in NE asia has a polarizing effect. This was true during the Cold War and it is certainly true today also. What East Asia needs to achieve is a pan-Asian unity, despite all the challenges inherent in that goal. East Asia needs to quickly become what European nations have achieved for themselves today. Although it took Europe two entire World Wars to realize that nationalism was a bad thing, I am confident that Asia would not need to go through a similar experience to realize it not in least because of heavy intra-Asian trade activity, other diplomatic and cultural exchanges, globalization, and the Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention. The US neocon foreign policy attitude of “you are either with us or against us” has a discernable “divide and conquer” effect on Asian nations.
Korea had its own version of Tianamen Square in 1980 called the Kwangju Massacre. So are you saying that Koreans are not nice people who wont listen to reason as well?
Um, Blulejives, since 1980 Korea has gone through a transformation of government and a transfer of power that China has not at all gone through since 1989. The leadership responsible for Kwangju was eventually pushed out of power, later tried, convicted, and harshly sentenced. They were eventually set free but stripped of power nonethless. Not so with Tiananmen, where the same ruling apparatus still controls the country. Unlike Korea, China is NOT democratic and they really answer to no one except so far as other countries or the citizens of other countries might put economic sanctions in place or boycott events held by China.
That’s interesting.
Although leftists have long claimed that the US is the main source of instability in East Asia, the opposite is much more true, that the US has been a major source of stability in East Asia for the last 50 years. If the US hadn’t been in Korea for that time, this place would have crumbled into civil war long ago.
Bluejives, I agree that a nuclear strike on the North would not be a good thing. So who in the Bush admin says that they’re going to go that route? It seems plain as day to me that nothing’s going to happen while Bush is in office, cause they know they don’t have any good options in this situation. Why take the military option off the table? It is always useful as an ultimate bargaining chip. Only idiots like the UN or the EU say remove the military option from negotiations. Throw out one of your only real bargianing chips (whether you would actually use it or not)? Sounds stupid to me.
Don’t forget Korea was unified when McArthur pushed the Commies to Yalu river. The entire Korea belonged to free economy and people-elected form of government.
Then, China entered the war without any justification. They pushed the US/Korean (don’t forget Korean soldiers) back to the 38th parallel and occupied the NK. Korean people were under Chinese rule, then. They put the puppet (kim ilsung) back to the head of the government with a strong warning that he would die if he disobeyed the Chinese.
China is using KJI and nuke bombs to threaten the US and SK. South Korean people would better know the Chinese role in this crisis in the Korean peninsula. This Chinese pressure will continue till all Korean people serve the old master, the Chinese.
bluejives, you and other young people will drive South Korean peole to certain deaths, starvation and poverty. Your Commie-fed mind will make SK to destruction.
that the US has been a major source of stability in East Asia for the last 50 years.
Amen.
If the US hadn?? been in Korea for that time, this place would have crumbled into civil war long ago.
Yeah, what the f~ is up with that? Usually splitting a country in half and putting it at the front of the Cold War is a real stabilizing force.
Kushibo, the US did not split Korea in half. Brush up on your history.
Nah, kyopos like bluejives will be cancelled out by the ones like John Yoo.
“Kushibo, the US did not split Korea in half. Brush up on your history.”
That’s strange, I could have sworn the country was split between Russian and US control after the fall of Japan… which seems to me the US was instrumental in ’splitting Korea in half’. Better that than give both halves to Russia. or is that not how you view it Mizar?
That?? strange, I could have sworn the country was split between Russian and US control after the fall of Japan??which seems to me the US was instrumental in ??plitting Korea in half?? Better that than give both halves to Russia. or is that not how you view it Mizar?
It’s not a matter of views, randomguy. The brief administrative control exercised by Soviet and American troops is only a small part of a larger, more complex drama.
The well-documented mission of the UN and the US was to unify the country. Soon after liberation, a UN delegation arrived to supervise the process of establishing national elections toward the formation of a single unified nation. Kim Il Sung unilaterally rejected the UN resolution for unification, seperating from the South and officially splitting the nation in two.
Kim Jung Il Sung then armed the North to the teeth and initiated civil war against a poorly equipped Southern defense. At the request of President Rhee, UN forces, under US command returned. Again their express mission was to unify the peninsula, which they succeeded in doing by pushing the Northern Army back to the Yalu. Unfortunately, Korean unification was finally thwarted by outside intervention from the Chinese.
The Chinese warned they would not accept the conquest of North Korea and poured troops into Korea, retaking Seoul and pushing about two-thirds of the way down the peninsula. The UN’s second offensive in February 1951 pushed the Chinese back north of Seoul again and was met by a second Chinese offensive in which huge waves of Chinese soldiers cut off and destroyed advance UN troops, stopping just north of Seoul until a third UN offensive in May of 1951 pushed the Chinese back up near the thirty-eighth parallel again. For the next two years, the war was fought mostly in the air as the battle line on the ground hardened into a massive defensive network on both sides. Incursions on the ground by either side during this time could only be made with great loss of men and little territorial gain.
It took 2 long years for the UN to finally yield to the North Korean/Chinese proposal to divide Korea at the 38th parallel in July 1953.
It took 4,000,000 military and civilian casualties, including 33,600 American, 16,000 UN allied, 415,000 South Korean, 520,000 North Korean and 900,000 Chinese to reach a stalemate not far from where the War began. A truce was reached between the UN, North Korea and China with the South Korean delegation walking out in protest at the behest of Singmund Rhee. The US had done everything it could until that point to unify the peninsula, but this was not to be tolerated by the Communists.
“It?? not a matter of views, randomguy. The brief administrative control exercised by Soviet and American troops is only a small part of a larger, more complex drama.”
(rest snipped)
Mizar,
You’re right, there’s always more to the story. But initially and ultimately, the splitting of Korea was a battle between Communist and Capitalist idealogies. The details in this case show the Norks and the Chinese are the bad guys… but the split was necessitated by the identification early on by the US that Communism could not be allowed to flourish. Otherwise do you think the US would have come to fight in Korea?
Random guy: “The details in this case show the Norks and the Chinese are the bad guys??but the split was necessitated by the identification early on by the US that Communism could not be allowed to flourish. Otherwise do you think the US would have come to fight in Korea?
Random guy, you’re right. World War II brought the US into geopolitics. Until then, they had been pretty much isolationist. Even Teddy Roosevelt’s Cuban involvement was pretty much just an extension of continental expansion.
“It took 4,000,000 military and civilian casualties, including 33,600 American, 16,000 UN allied, 415,000 South Korean, 520,000 North Korean and 900,000 Chinese to reach a stalemate not far from where the War began.” _Mizar5
Thank you, Mizar5, for the statistics. 900,000..Do you think the Chinese would let Kim IlSung and Kim Jongil out of their grip? China is waiting to punish SKs if foolish SKs come under their influence. Ditto on the Japanese.
Random guy,
Please read books on Korean history. Stalin wanted the whole Korea. Roosevelt could have easily given the peninsula over to the Ruskies. Then, Koreans would be speaking Russians now and be poorer than Russians.
Or, Russia could have given Korea over to China. Then, Koreans would have been under Chinese rule for last fifty years. Much like NK today. A gigantic poor house that constantly prepares a war against Japan, instead of SK.
SK lucked out. Or, was it by God’s grace?
Lost Nomad posted an article on the survey from a U.S. investor site with apparently some libertarian leanings:
http://www.howestreet.com/arti.....le_id=2102
In Korea we do downplay these surveys as inaccurate or poorly conducted, but people elsewhere take them seriously:
“We in the United States owe these South Korean youths a debt of gratitude. These young South Koreans are doing us all a favor. They are providing a face-saving way for America to disengage from an expensive, if not bleeding, commitment to their national security. This is good, because America alone does not really have the political will to disengage from South Korea. There are too many entrenched and vested interests in the status quo.”
^^ I read the article.
Utterly amusing. Insufferable, flag waving, yellow ribboned Americans with weepy memories of American blood lost in Korean soil during the “Forgotten War” always sound like a rejected lover reacting to a “Dear John” letter and trying to come to terms with it even as it hasnt completely sunken in yet, when they learn of such things.
If it should make Mr King feel any better, I’d be sure to remember to give some money to the old folks in exchange for a small “Made in China” US flag. The ones who strategically park themselves by the entrance to Hanareum supermarket on Veteran’s Day, as if to implicitly say, “the only reason why you Koreans can live here and prosper is because of our sacrifices.”
If peaceful coexistence does not work and the North Koreans decide to make an effort to reunite the place like they did in 1950, then the Southerners can always make their own deals. Good luck, boys! Remember, just say, “juche,” if the North Koreans come calling.
Fucking typical asinine-ness of such aforementioned insufferable dickwads.
What is so fucking hard to understand about SK youth not wanting war happening on the Korean peninsula, esp one instigated by US neocons?
Utterly amusing. Insufferable, flag waving, yellow ribboned Americans with weepy memories of American blood lost in Korean soil during the “Forgotten War”
Bluejives, even though you have something of a point there (but not entirely), I find this sentence to be pretty damn offensive.
Yeah, much is owed to this people (Korean War vets). At the very minimum, a modicum of respect.
“Please read books on Korean history. Stalin wanted the whole Korea. Roosevelt could have easily given the peninsula over to the Ruskies. Then, Koreans would be speaking Russians now and be poorer than Russians.”
Baduk, what is your point here? I’m sorry, but you make nonsensical rants with some extremely rectally extracted assertions in perhaps 90 percent of the posts of yours that I’ve read… and I fail to see what you’re getting at here.
What different perspective would I gain from reading _more_ books on Korean history? Rather, what history books are you referring to that would shed light on this issue that would help me see understand this from your viewpoint.
Ok, you say Roosevelt ‘could have easily given the peninsula over to the Ruskies.’ Are you referring to Roosevelts discussion with Stalin at the Cairo Conference over the ultimate disposition of Korea? Nowhere have I read anything that even remotely hints at giving Russia control over the entirety of the Korean peninsula.
Anyhow, how could he when he was dead when Japan surrendered.
(Regardless, if the Russians had taken control over the entire peninsula, I’m sure Koreans would still be speaking Korean. And can you fathom the problems the RUSSIAN Hakwons would be having!?!?!)
Anyhow, I digress.
Truman and the Truman Doctrine. Are you familiar with this? Truman was an avowed anti-communist… Truman stated, “the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” This was his treatment of communism thus his foreign policy towards Russia. Truman would not have allowed Korea to be just ‘give Korea over to the Russians.’
How about you read some real history books and come back with something other than bs rhetoric.
What politicians say in public and what they say in private could be totally opposite. Their actions and voting records really tell who they are.
Truman stopped Korean War. When the McArthur wanted to drop A-bombs to stop the Chinese from invading Korea, wimpy isolationist Truman said no. He did not want to send American boys to Korea in the first place.
Korean war is “McArthur’s war”. Many in Washington, including Truman, had no interest in Korea. “Where the f*** is Korea, anyway? We are not going to fight Russians for a small piece of land.”
McArthur convinced these morans (some may now say that Mac was a moran) to defend Korea. So, SK was born.
Random guy, you and young Koreans are wrong in the following points.
1) America did not split Korea. Kim IlSung did, by refusing a nation-wide election.
2) American public still do not know where Korea is.
3) The US has never been interested in Korea and troops in Korea themselves see no need to defend Korea.
4) Young Koreans are so dumb if they think SK will be able to defend itself without the US troops.
5) China controlled NK and the China-NK alliance will eat up SK as soon as the US troops leave.
6) SK has a very low odds in surviving as a nation fifty years from now. China is getting stronger and Russia is still strong militarily. And, Japan is re-arming. Good luck, SK.
7) The only way to survive in that neck of woods is to stick to the US as much as SK can. Otherwise, SK will be raped by its neighbors once more and be a servant to them.
Egocentric Korean media give the idea that the US is very interested in Korea. Well, the US public still don’t know where Korea is located in the globe. Many Americans may guess that Korea is an African country.
Americans are interested in what happens in Europe, South America and Australia,etc. And, totally not interested in Korea. Nobody gives flying f***.
It has been this way for the last century and it still is. The US troops can pack and leave right now if they wanted. The US has no strong interests in Korea. I think the Japanese “money” in Washington is what has kept the troops in Korea. And, now the Chinese “money” is flowing into Washington and we may see the US troops leaving Korea in near future.
I bet the substantial number of them has already left.
The president Bush included NK as one of the axis of evil because the other two enemy nations were Islam and he did not want to look like a “MiddleEastern nation-hater”. So, he threw in NK. He is not interested in NK. Never has.
Six-nation talks. What a joke!
The US will slowly diminish its influence in the region. Japan will re-arm to the max to fight China-Korea alliance. The US will stay in Australia to watch the war.
Don’t blame the US. China is a jerk and Japan has to what it has to do. NK is a joke as a nation and SK still loves her brother despite every sane advice against it. Both countries will go down after serving Great Chinese Empire(GCE) in the war effort against Japan.
Only if SKs were smarter, things could turn out different!
Baduk,
I’d go about addressing each of your salient points… but there really aren’t any.
Once again, you randomly assert things that have no basis in reality and expect people to read and believe this.
What do you know of the link between Iran and nK? It looks like you don’t. why don’t YOU do some research and write something intelligible. You obviously have no idea what my background is nor what kind of work I do.
Well, “what my background”,”what kind of work”..McCarthism is back?
Why don’t you spell them out?
But no credentials will surprise me. The 9/11 happened. No amount of analysis and prior information did deedly-squaat.
Your reply to my post is bland as well. Why don’t you write some facts and ideas instead of blabbering on about your credentials. I need facts. I wrote my observations about the US military, politicians and presidents. Not all of them are written down.
If you want to limit your discussion to the published materials only, then that is your choice. I want to apply my life experiences to the situation at hand. Since I have some background in these matters as a former intelligence officer of the US Navy stationed in Korea, I think my opinions are with some weight.
I was right about Dr.Hwang, two years prior to his being exposed. That is my credential.
Kushibo on Bluejives: Yeah, much is owed to this people (Korean War vets). At the very minimum, a modicum of respect.
Bluejives may come up short on human decency but the expression of opinions like these is precisely what the US wanted for Korea.
“Random guy, you and young Koreans are wrong in the following points.
1) America did not split Korea. Kim IlSung did, by refusing a nation-wide election.
2) American public still do not know where Korea is.
3) The US has never been interested in Korea and troops in Korea themselves see no need to defend Korea.
4) Young Koreans are so dumb if they think SK will be able to defend itself without the US troops.
5) China controlled NK and the China-NK alliance will eat up SK as soon as the US troops leave.
6) SK has a very low odds in surviving as a nation fifty years from now. China is getting stronger and Russia is still strong militarily. And, Japan is re-arming. Good luck, SK.
7) The only way to survive in that neck of woods is to stick to the US as much as SK can. Otherwise, SK will be raped by its neighbors once more and be a servant to them.”
Ok I guess I am allowing myself to be trolled again.
I guess it’s a ‘fun’ way to spend a Friday night
1. The US and the Soviet Union divided Korea and jointly administered the country with the division along the 38th parallel. Elections were scheduled but they backed different leaders. Everything else you say is just splitting hairs.
2. The American public doesn’t know where a lot of places are. Your point? Policy makers know where Korea is and that’s really all that matters.
3. US interest in Korea goes back to the 1800’s. Or did people dying then ‘not really matter’? Commodore Perry was all about opening up the Hermit Kingdom.
4. nK doesn’t have the infrastructure or ability to fight a prolonged fight. The US has a single heavy brigade combat team in place on peninsula. Would the ROKA be capable of defending itself? Yes. Will they be able to hold out if China enters the fray? Dunno. Point being, the ROKA is capable of sustaining a defense. Going on the offensive will require help from its friends.
5. You are saying China and nK WILL attack the moment the US leaves Korea… do you honestly believe this??
6. So I see you envision military chaos in Northeast Asia. Right. Yes, and once the INS stop patrolling the southern border, Mexico will rise up and reclaim California, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico. Please. get a grip.
7. Yawn.
Like I said before, I would address your salient points but the utter ridiculousness of them make them difficult to counter.
Calling out Dr. Hwang gives you as much credence as the National Enquirer.
For your information, since you seem to be factually impaired, I did not ‘blabber on about my credentials’ I merely stated that you don’t know my background, whether I’m young or Korean or ANYTHING. I hadn’t even made remarks about most of the 7 things you listed and yet you said I was ‘wrong’. How is that possible when I hadn’t said anything?
If you are a Naval Intelligence officer, then I am the Emperor of Korea. For the most part, regardless of your background, if you’re deriving your analyses from classified information, then you’re in violation of a non-disclosure agreement. I use open source information because that is the only legal way to present an argument on here. Basically, stop trying to pass off rhetoric and opinion as fact. As far as your life experiences, sure, use them.. but a single or even multiple tours in Korea doesn’t give you any more insight than any other ex-pat in Korea.
AND just to be nitpicky, your grasp of the English language is horrible. If you’re not a native English speaker, my apologies. Your poor writing skills make me cringe. On that note.
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