I’m sure you have all read it, but in case you haven’t, you are strongly encouraged to give ICG NE Asia Director Peter Beck’s piece on North Korea a read. Here’s a money shot if there’s ever been one:
South Korean officials almost never admit it openly, but they are increasingly worried about Beijing’s growing economic influence over the North. North Korea watchers in Seoul are already referring to the North as “China’s fourth northeastern province.” Given that China has released a development plan to reinvigorate this region, such concerns are well founded. Speculation is no longer whether Chinese forces would enter North Korea in the event of Kim’s regime collapsing, but how much territory they would try to hold if it did.
(Hat tip to Mingi)
13 Comments
I’m really beginning to wonder if there won’t be any reunification of the North with the South.
Would China invade or do something to prevent it from happening? I don’t think the possibility can be ruled out and in fact it could be a distinct possibility. And because of this, I think the South is crazy to cosy up to China while seemingly pushing to deep-six the relationship with the US (to some degree). Why can’t the South make lots of economic deals with China and yet stay ‘buddies’ with the closest thing to a real friend (and the only one) they’ve got in Asia?
When it ever comes to the possibility of reunification, I’m not so sure that things will go quite the way most Koreans (and I) hope it will.
If one used logic, the only real enemies that Korea has could only be the Chinese. The Chinese have the military, the geographical position and the only plausible reasons to threaten Korea. I really wonder why the so called “progressives” do not mention this obvious situation more often.
Everybody made a big deal about KJI’s trip to China last month. Did any change occur? Not a damn bit.
KJI probably went there to provide some Korean women and gold from Korean mountains. And, to kowtow to Chinese leaders.
NK has been the satellite of China ever since the Korean War. KJI and his father before him kissed Chinese asses to survive. NK is not an independent country at all.
And, the Chinese will keep NK poor by extracting any resources from it. As a lone supplier of oil to that miserable place, the Chinese can demand anything from KJI, even his wife if they want her.
Only fools are SK Commies who believe that NK is a honorable representation of Korean people. F*** those idiots. NK is a China’s lap dog.
I dunno, Baduk, from the 60s to the 90s NK played the USSR and PRC off on each other pretty well and didn’t do much it didn’t want to.
1. so china is going to invade and take north korea, huh? will china be taking any other part of asia or is it just korea? still further, i never see folks who say that china will gobble up korea tell us why. for what reason would china be risking a nuclear war? do you really think this will be a situation in which china does whatever it feels like? that’s a wrong answer. thye’re going to have a war. i gurantee it. and they will lose.
2. so when south koreans fear the total economic engulfment of north korea by china, you right wing types insist that south korea antogonize the north thus pushing nk further into the arms of the country you constantly villify. do i have that right?
3. the economic dependance of the north should be on the south. south kora should accelerate it’s investement there and damn bush and his cronies.
*****
‘we stand by the right of free speech!’ journalist from west in reference to the muslim looney tune cartoon.
‘holocaust denier sentenced to four years for expressing his belief the european holcaust did not happen.’ newspaper
‘……..’ those in the west who stand by the right to free speech in reference to the holocaust denier
pawikirogi,
1a) Taiwan, Mongolia…even Russia
b) According to China, SK sided with the US to fight their “Communist liberation forces”. For that, they look at SKs as traitors, considering the entire Korean people served the Chinese people for thousands of years.
c) China pushes the envelope whenever it can.
d) The Chinese may not lose in Asia. The only country that can stop China is the US, but the US may like to talk peace rather than endure the damage. After all, it is only a regional fight between China and Japan.
2. NK is already s***ing China’s d***. Trying to entice it away from its master now would be similar to trying to buy another man’s wife. It is dirty and you will only lose your money. Her heart belongs to her master (gives her oil).
3. No other nation invests money in its enemy. The money invested will come back as “bombs”; with the money provided by SK, NK has perfected the nuke weapons. NK will drop it someday on SK soil. Thank you, Kim Dae Joong.
Thank you very much.
It’s unlikely China will invade N.K.–they don’t have to, because the norks are already controlled to a large extent by financial aid and economic partnerships, and China is N.K.’s biggest trade partner. It seems more likely China would install a puppet gov’t or even make Norklandia a semi-autonomous special administrative region like Hong Kong and Macau. It can use its claim to the Koguryo kingdom as its excuse for the takeover.
There isn’t much S.K. on its own can do about this because the ruling clique in N.K. knows there’s a strong possibility it would be put on trial if unification happened, where China would maybe just ease them out without punishment.
As for the tangent about holocaust denial, there is a debate in legal circles on whether it should be protected speech, and I’ve heard good arguments on both sides.
I lean toward the Western view, where these things are open to discussion, rather than the religious fascists that kill others who don’t believe exactly as they do. How about you, Nulji?
Quote:
pawikirogi
“1. so china is going to invade and take north korea, huh? will china be taking any other part of asia or is it just korea?”
—————————————————————————————–
Why would China need to invade North Korea?? They own it for god sakes. Kim Jung the “Mentally” IL one sold North to China long, long time ago. Just what reality are you living in that you cannot see somethjing this obvious?
I’m just curious what LUX thinks of all this, If he really is “Korean” as he claims to be. Anyway, Since North is already owned by the Chinese, does he believe South should be owned by them as well??
You know, I never really baught into all these stupid arguments about just how the two Korea’s could be “Unified,” if we did this or if we did that…. the Fact of the matter is, all these stupid theories doesn’t really matter when the real issue happens to be the 80,000 pound Godzilla sitting next door breathing fire down your neck.
You liberal, socialist, Marxist, French lovers, do you really believe China will ever alllow a “Human Shield,” like North Korea to get away from their grips??
Get Real….
Here’s a reality check for all you morons who think China is just the cutest little panda bear you can cuddle up to in the darkest hour of the night:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.image?id=6973
Michael,
“There isn?? much S.K. on its own can do about this because the ruling clique in N.K. knows there?? a strong possibility it would be put on trial if unification happened, where China would maybe just ease them out without punishment.”
Contrary to what SKs think, NKs are counting days to the US withdrawal from the peninsula and SK government collapse followed by the Commie revolution, which will surrender SK to KJI.
KJI will put people like me on trial, along with Kim DaeJoong, Rho MuHyen,….
No Baduk, KJI will put people like ME in Korea on trial, and I’m expecting you to fly over from the U.S. and Rambo me out of trouble
Nevermind, they’ll just shoot me without a trial
Me and some KoreanAmerican fighters will try an invasion similar to the “Bay of Pigs” on Busan, Korea.
I just hope that Koreans wake up to this reality, which is coming closer every day. Presently, the US is seriously thinking about pulling out of Korean peninsula and the Korean administration is decreasing Korean troop strength.
Good luck, Korea. China and KJI welcome you (to eternal poverty and death in labor camps).
no way!
the americans will never leave the Korean peninsula.
But if they ever did, we’d have to declare a holiday to commemorate it.
Yeah, Lux, Korea could declare it a holiday, but first they’d have to get permission from Beijing to ok it.