North Korea junkies might appreciate this ICC report on Sino-DPRK ties. From the executive summary:
China’s influence on North Korea is more than it is willing to admit but far less than outsiders tend to believe. Although it shares the international community’s denuclearisation goal, it has its own concept of how to achieve it. It will not tolerate erratic and dangerous behaviour if it poses a risk of conflict but neither will it endorse or implement policies that it believes will create instability or threaten its influence in both Pyongyang and Seoul. The advantages afforded by China’s close relationship with the North can only be harnessed if better assessments of its priorities and limitations are integrated into international strategies. Waiting for China to compel North Korean compliance will only give Pyongyang more time to develop its nuclear arsenal.
As they say, read the rest on your own.
(Hat tip to reader)
3 Comments
I don’t know if many Koreans truly believe that reunification will come soon, but I’m not sure that it will ever come (or at least not in the next 40-50 years). The Chinese think that having a stable China-friendly regime in the North is in their best interests, so I think the likelihood of reunification is remote (barring events such as a collapse or coup, which China will do its best to stop from happening). Koreans should realize that it is not the US standing in the way of reunification, but China.
As I wrote several times before, even if Kim’s regime folds, reunification will not take place.
1) Chinese troops will roll into the NK without any justification.
2) The South Korea will be restrained because it cannot risk a direct confrontation with China.
3) The Chinese will set a new dictator who will suck up to them as KJI has done.
Nothing will change. The only other scenario is the China-Japan War.
I read this report, yes all 30 pages of it.
It presents an excellent look at the NK situation from the Chinese perspective, general Chinese foreign policy mentality, discusses Chinese dilemmas in diplomatic handling of NK, and relationship difficulties that can occur between China and NK (not unlike ones between SK and the US).
Good bedtime reading.