The Marmot’s Hole

10 Comments

1. Michael
   Posted January 25, 2006 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

   Here’s kind of an old article by Andrei Lankov that I think makes a good case for why the norks might prefer to be (unofficially at least) part of China than reunite with their “brothers”:

   http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GL17Dg01.html

2. oranckay
   Posted January 25, 2006 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

   Yo marmot… I haven’t read the article yet but it would be interesting to hear what it is from what you’ve summarized that you don’t agree with. Is it that you really think one day China will decide that NK is too costly and that it would be easier to have a US military ally across the border? Just wondering…

   Kim Tae Kyeong is a smart guy and he knows China well (not just for having majored in Chinese at Yonsei). Whatever China’s intentions really may be with NK, it think it is a very positive development to have SK’s left-of-center be concerned about them.

3. The Marmot
   Posted January 25, 2006 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

   Yo marmot… I haven’t read the article yet but it would be interesting to hear what it is from what you’ve summarized that you don’t agree with.

   The same thing we discussed last evening. Namely, that Kim seems to be using the “Chinese dependency” argument as a justification for Seoul pumping even more money into North Korea than it is now. Personally, I don’t see the point in throwing good money into a bad investment just because China’s content to do so. This is the thing I warned against in an earlier comment–everyone in the neighborhood rushing to pump money into North Korea so the “other side” doesn’t acquire undue “influence” in Pyongyang. Moreover, he seems to ignore–see the last paragraph, that South Korea differs from China in that the former is accountable to voting taxpayers while the latter is not, ergo, Seoul can’t simply pump in all sorts of aid into North Korea without making public–and discussing politically–the totals and particulars of the moneys involved.

4. Kiwon
   Posted January 25, 2006 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

   China will never allow a democratic, unified Korea to exist on its border.

5. baduk
   Posted January 25, 2006 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

   NK has always been a satellite of China, ever since the fall of USSR. Hu can order KJI around and Hu is calling shots about (now debunked?) six-party talks.

   KJI is just a puppet.

6. baduk
   Posted January 26, 2006 at 1:50 am | Permalink

   Actually this year is very interesting time for China-Korea-Japan relationship.

   China, after using NK nukes as trading chips against Taiwan acquisition, may try using NK in a new venture.

   KJI visited China this year with military generals. This is significant move. And, I am afraid that the purpose of visit was not economic change as many media have reported.

   China may start using NK to attack Japan!

   The following events may take place.

   1) NK will be very belligerent toward Japan, attacking Japanese boats and even shooting some missiles.

   2) The US will be put into an awkward position. To defend Japan, the US may have to start a war against NK. However, this will not pass in the Congress. Koizumi’s Yasukuni visits will be a convenient excuse for the US not to commit troop. The US will just take the issue to the UN.

   3) When NK attacks heighten and the Japanese require the US to live up to the mutual defense treaty, the US will reluctantly have to commit troops.

   4) This is where the most intriguing events will follow. South Koreans will ask the US to leave the country! SK will join NK and China alliance.

   China wants this consequence and may activate this scenario.

7. baduk
   Posted January 26, 2006 at 1:57 am | Permalink

   The US will pull out of Korea and just supply the Japanese Self-Defense Corps some missles to fight the war against NKs.

   As soon as the US pulls out of SK, NK ends hostilities against Japan, with China working as the peacemaker.

   Five years later, the Unified Korea attacks Japan under China’s orders. The US is nowhere to be found.

8. kushibo
   Posted January 26, 2006 at 6:13 am | Permalink

   Baduk, you forgot to include the nuclear device hidden in the vending machine.

   Anyway, I’m not worried. Jack Ryan will come in and save the day at the last minute.

9. slim
   Posted January 26, 2006 at 7:00 am | Permalink

   Color me as unimpressed by Kim’s China analysis as I am with any of Cheong Wook-sik’s masterpieces. I don’t see where Oh My News wins its many reported admirers, at least based on the English language pieces it puts out.

10. pawi kirogi
    Posted January 27, 2006 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    can i post here again? the article illustrates why korea got to spend big money on north korea.