A number of experts who attended a forum at Kyungnam University??s Graduate School of North Korean Studies suggested that like President Roh, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il wants the United States to play a "balancer role" in Northeast Asia:
Tong Kim, who on various occasions attended the U.S.-North Korea meetings accompanying the U.S. delegations, suggested that the North Korean leader wants to be on the side of the United States rather than that of China or Russia, both the North??s traditional allies.
"Kim Jong-il wants the United States, which has no territorial ambition in the region, to play a balancer role in Northeast Asia," Tong Kim said. "He hopes that the United States would rein in the competition for hegemony between China and Japan. Once the United States politically accepts North Korea, North Korea??s harsh anti-American rhetoric would disappear at once."
Hwang Won-tak, former senior presidential secretary for foreign affairs and security during the Kim Dae-jung government who was present at the inter-Korean summit in 2000, backed the argument, by describing how the North Korean leader had changed his attitude toward the U.S. forces stationed in South Korea (USFK).
North Korean official media outlets have often criticized the presence of the U.S. military in the South, which functions as a deterrent against possible invasion by North Korea, as the stumbling block in inter-Korean reconciliation.
During the summit, former President Kim Dae-jung asked the North Korean leader what he thought of the USFK, according to Hwang.
"Kim Jong-il replied that the North changed its thinking about the USFK since the end of the Cold War era," Hwang recalled. "Kim Jong-il said that the USFK is serving to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula now, and that its role will be necessary even after the reunification of the two Koreas."
My gut instinct is that KJI is less concerned about the regional balance of power than he is getting a third source (behind China and South Korea) of funding to keep his regime afloat. And while North Korea’s harsh rhetoric might in fact disappear if the U.S. "politically accepted" the North (one wonders, however, if this would be the case, given the role such rhetoric seems to play in maintaining internal discipline), this in no way means that the issues of concern that make U.S. political acceptance of North Korea so difficult (i.e., the North’s nuclear programs, missile sales, human rights, drug smuggling, counterfeiting, etc.) would disappear with it. And what’s more, if Sunshine has taught us anything, it’s that "reconciliation" with the North comes at a price, and you get precious little for that price other than the honor of Pyongyang accepting your money.
Meanwhile, former Unification Minister and favorite Marmot whipping boy Jeong Se-hyun was apparently in the house and feeling talkative:
"Such wars of words have typically caused a delay in the talks," Jeong said during a forum hosted by Kyungnam University??s Graduate School of North Korean Studies in a Seoul hotel Monday. "We cannot but question whether the United States has a ‘real intention’ that is quite different from its ‘proclaimed policy’ of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue."
Jeong added that if the incumbent U.S. government maintains a hard-line stance on North Korea, further progress in the nuclear talks cannot be expected at least until the U.S. elections for the House of Representatives and Senate scheduled for November.
"Washington seems to want to keep North Korea as its ‘necessary enemy’ to maintain its control and interests in the Northeast Asian region," Jeong said.
Very good, Jeong. The KCNA couldn’t have put it better themselves. North Korea is a regime seemingly built on hate, and it’s the United States that needs a "necessary enemy?" And what U.S. interests, pray tell, are best served with North Korea kept as a "necessary enemy?" Of course, I’m a bit slow, and sometimes, it’s hard to keep track of it all when evil U.S. conservative warmongers are simultaneously trying to destroy North Korea in a reckless bid to spread democracy while keeping the country alive to justify American military hegemony in Northeast Asia and promote U.S. arms sales in the region.
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That forum sounded like a true meeting of the mindless. Tong Kim: “Under the U.S. system, those working-level officials cannot but relay the message of the “tier one, or the president, just like official mouthpieces of North Korea adopt a hard-line stance toward the outside world to prove themselves to the inside leadership, including its leader Kim Jong-il, he said.”
Uh, right, the parallels are obvious. And low-level South Korean officials are encouraged to make off-the-cuff remarks when they feel so inclined? In most any country, working-level officials toe the gov’t line–it’s ridiculous that he sees differences within the U.S. State Dept. (which often become known publically) to be on a par with a totalitarian gov’t mouthpiece that squawks the same BS every day.
What a collection of dunces.
I’m confused. I thought the Great Pretender and the Roh Nothings wanted ROK to be the NE Asia balancer.
I don’t think it’s so outrageous that North Korea may see the United States as a useful/necessary balance to China (or even Japan) for now or in the future. When that statement by then President Kim Daejung came out, it was a bit surprising, but it made a lot of sense.
Of course, the United States should take the lead with this and make a list of demands for North Korea to join the US camp: an end to the gulag, dropping the nuke program, opening markets, free movement of its people, resolution of the kidnapee issue with South Korea and Japan, personal freedoms equaling at least those in next-door China.
Give them something to shoot for (besides escapees).
Thank God - I thought I was going to be deprived of my fix of Stupid Jeong Tricks after he left the Unification Ministry.
The obvious rejoinder to Jeong, of course, is his own words: “At this point, I don’t think we need to talk about policy issues based on the possibility of negative scenarios.”
Kushibo–I don’t find it outrageous that North Korea would seek better relations with the United States; if we grant, just for argument’s sake, that North Korean hostility toward the United States is not a function of North Korea’s internal politics, then it’s highly conceivable that North Korea would want to improve relations with the United States, if for no other reason than there’d be no logical reason to maintain the hostility. But even if this were true, it would seem to me that North Korea is simply trying to do the same thing it did with China and the Soviets during the Cold War, i.e., play the two off while giving up nothing in return for its “friendship.” Sure, I could see how North Korea might wish to extract aid from both China and the United States. Who wouldn’t? But the question is, what would the U.S. get out of it? Increased leverage? Didn’t seem to help the Chinese or Soviets any. In fact–and bear with me for a moment–it would seem letting North Korea off the Chinese hook would, in fact, decrease the leverage any foreign power had over Pyongyang, while at the same time greatly strengthening Pyongyang’s position. The only reason China has any leverage at all over North Korea is because Pyongyang no longer has the ability to threaten to run to Moscow if China did something the North Koreans didn’t like. This changes if Washington enlists North Korea as a “friend.” All you do is develop a situation where Pyongyang can manipulate both Washington and Beijing into playing its game by “leaning toward Beijing” or “leaning toward Washington” to get what it wants. Meanwhile, both Washington and Beijing are going to be more afraid of “loosing influence” in Pyongyang to the other side than they’ll be asking themselves whether they really have any influence at all. Pyongyang, after all, is the master of the tail wagging the dog.
Of course, the United States should take the lead with this and make a list of demands for North Korea to join the US camp: an end to the gulag, dropping the nuke program, opening markets, free movement of its people, resolution of the kidnapee issue with South Korea and Japan, personal freedoms equaling at least those in next-door China.
Yeah, I wish. Of course, this would be no different from asking the North Korean regime to commit suicide, and hence a non-starter to negotiations.
The situation with N.K. and the U.S. has its own inexorable logic, as they say: even with a peace treaty, mutual troop pullbacks, denuclearization, etc., you still have a totalitarian, military dictatorship that denies its people basic freedoms and can’t allow the transparency needed for cross-border trade to sustain its economy. For that alone, N.K. is odious enough to merit sanctions and global ostracism. I just can’t see how there could be a “peaceful” N.K. with its present leadership. Even China and S.K., by propping up the regime, just prolong the inevitable–Kim Jongil and his regime are an anachronism, it’s amazing they’ve made it this far, but there is no future scenario in a N.E. Asia more economically intertwined than ever that would include them.
“if we grant, just for argument’s sake, that North Korean hostility toward the United States is not a function of North Korea’s internal politics”
Now, there’s a counterfactual assumption of epic proportions; the regime orchestrated anti-americanism is on a scale that far exceeds the “Hate” that Orwell imagined in 1984.
And there are other more fundamental factors besides the NORK’s transparent duplicity in such international diplomatic ploy to make itself the balancer for NE Asia for its own narrowly conceived benefit - the rank criminality of the regime. Do they really believe they are going to be taken seriously while they are counterfeiting greenbacks, proliferating meth and missiles, etc.
Now, there’s a counterfactual assumption of epic proportions; the regime orchestrated anti-americanism is on a scale that far exceeds the “Hate” that Orwell imagined in 1984.
Hence, the reason I qualified that with “for argument’s sake.” Actually, I should have said, “Even if I grant, just for argument’s sake…”
I wasn’t being critical, just making an observation that there are more fundamental reasons for the daftness of the idea that the US would ever be drawn into anything like a non-confrontational relationship with the NORK regime.
I think their (Kyungnam Us) argument is a bit specious. While the U.S. doesnt have territorial ambitions, and the DPRKs *external* rhetorical might cease if diplomatic ties were established, the DPRK population is thoroughly indoctrinated (i.e., brainwashed) when is comes to Imperialist Americans, and internal rhetoric would likely continue as a unifying tool. Would probably have to, in fact.
And while the North would welcome assistance and trade (in that order) from the U.S., the idea that Kim Jong-il would *really* want reunification under realistic circumstances (i.e., the Souths system) is absurd; U.S. troops in South Korea, and political friction with the U.S. gives him the excuse to not be serous about reunification, just as brinksmanship and tinkering in WMD practically guarantees a threatening U.S. military presence in the South and the region.
North Korea has to do little to maintain this almost-self-perpetuation cycle. Delay talks, cancel them, go back to them, rinse, repeat. A few patrol boats into ROK waters. A few very carefully worded statements on nuclear programs ? and of course the reality of those programs. Lob a missile once in awhile, or act like you will. Maintain the worlds 5th largest military. U.S. troops stay in the South, tensions stay high, the aid keeps coming in, the military first policy is still intact, WFP can be kicked out with zero consequences (thank, ROK), and the Kim regime is still there.
Unless the balance of power somehow changes so that North Korea would have an actual chance of retaining its system in the event of reunification, this overall situation will not change, with the exception of Kim Jong-ils death or some other catastrophic change in the North.
“Washington seems to want to keep North Korea as its ‘necessary enemy’ … ” Jeong said.
It is true that the Pentagon is trying to milk the North Korean threat for all it’s worth. Ever since the Cold War ended with Russia, and China opened up to America, the Pentagon has been scrambling to find justification for $ billions spent on Star Wars research on missile defense. NK has become the convenient scapegoat. Not only is the Pentagon getting money from Congress, it was able to use the NK threat to convince Japan to pay billions for a joint missile defense.
Considering how much money the Pentagon gets because of NK, it’s no wonder that some of them are not eager for a diplomatic solution.
It’s most often too late to pay for military defense after the war starts.
And as scapegoats go, North Korea is very well armed; missiles, nukes?, WMD, million man army, etc.
If you’re the Pentagon, what do you do? Pretend North Korea doesn’t have all of that, doesn’t have a history of agression?
NK and the US are both caught up in a vicious cycle of using each other to justify heavy military spending. This is not good for either country, but especially bad for NK. A peace treaty would help to end the craziness on both sides.(Along with Kim Jong Il’s death.)
A little inside info on Kyungmam University. Park Jae-kyu had to resume running his university (yes, he OWNS it) to save it from financial ruin. It is one of the WORST universities in Honam so the Commie Loving is a way to fame for it. At a dinner with Park once, we were all told that “working at Kyungnam is an expression of support for the Sunshine Policy.” Further, we were expressly forbidden to say anything negative in regards to North Korea in our classes.