Comments on: David Kang on unification and the ROK-U.S. alliance http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/ Korea... in Blog Format Wed, 9 Jul 2008 05:40:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: baduk http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26054 baduk Fri, 02 Dec 2005 19:32:05 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26054 Actually China is the only country that can open up NK. But it won't. Hugh investment in mineral mining? I doubt it. If China wanted it, it would have done it ten years ago. China does not want a competitor. It wants NK to be poor and backward. It may even hamper SK's move into NK. After soaking in enough technology from SK, China may actually order KJI to attack SK because, with a competitor gone, China can sell more electronics and cars. But, it may be hoping SK Commies to bring the whole country in the platter. And, it may happen. And, maybe soon. Actually China is the only country that can open up NK. But it won’t. Hugh investment in mineral mining? I doubt it. If China wanted it, it would have done it ten years ago.

China does not want a competitor. It wants NK to be poor and backward. It may even hamper SK’s move into NK.

After soaking in enough technology from SK, China may actually order KJI to attack SK because, with a competitor gone, China can sell more electronics and cars. But, it may be hoping SK Commies to bring the whole country in the platter. And, it may happen. And, maybe soon.

]]> By: Michael http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26053 Michael Fri, 02 Dec 2005 18:07:09 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26053 There is no scenario for reunification that includes Kim Jongil or his retarded children, um, I mean heirs. Baduk overreaches a bit, but quite probably China will eventually cut a deal with some nork military figures and install a puppet gov't in Pyongyang. There doesn't have to be an outright war for this, and China is already preparing with huge investments in N.K., which has unexploited mineral resourcs China wants. S. Korea can do nothing about this on its own, especially the current idiots in charge, and if S.K. keeps pushing the U.S. away China will step in. There is no scenario for reunification that includes Kim Jongil or his retarded children, um, I mean heirs. Baduk overreaches a bit, but quite probably China will eventually cut a deal with some nork military figures and install a puppet gov’t in Pyongyang. There doesn’t have to be an outright war for this, and China is already preparing with huge investments in N.K., which has unexploited mineral resourcs China wants. S. Korea can do nothing about this on its own, especially the current idiots in charge, and if S.K. keeps pushing the U.S. away China will step in.

]]> By: slim http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26052 slim Fri, 02 Dec 2005 15:20:07 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26052 David Kang effectively endorses regime change in North Korea, which is arguably the only solution to the security, economic, crime and human rights problems posed by the DPRK. David Kang effectively endorses regime change in North Korea, which is arguably the only solution to the security, economic, crime and human rights problems posed by the DPRK.

]]> By: baduk http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26051 baduk Fri, 02 Dec 2005 10:30:53 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26051 When the USSR fell, very few people predicted what eventually happened. Many expected the country to go full steam into Democratic market economy. What is taking place in Russia is a pseudo-market economy run by former military and KGB officers. They formed the Russian mob and this mob is running the country. Why is it so difficult to see that this will happen in Korea? A similar mob/political organization happened in Korea in 1940's as well, so I have two precedences to support my theory. Why does everyone assume it will be like East and West Germany? NKs are more like Russians. When the USSR fell, very few people predicted what eventually happened. Many expected the country to go full steam into Democratic market economy.

What is taking place in Russia is a pseudo-market economy run by former military and KGB officers. They formed the Russian mob and this mob is running the country.

Why is it so difficult to see that this will happen in Korea? A similar mob/political organization happened in Korea in 1940’s as well, so I have two precedences to support my theory.

Why does everyone assume it will be like East and West Germany? NKs are more like Russians.

]]> By: juan http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26050 juan Fri, 02 Dec 2005 09:17:35 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26050 Bauk I do repect certain nuggets of insights that you do provice in your posts, but the above post reminds me of Yaron Ezrahi's words, "The new system of diffusion -the Internet- is more likely to transmit irrationality than rationality, because irrationality is more emotionally loaded, it requires less knowledge, it explains more to more people, it goes down easier." Its just a great relief that most posters on Marmot's Hole are are the inquisitive, rational type, not mentally lazy or prone to conspiracy theories. Bauk I do repect certain nuggets of insights that you do provice in your posts, but the above post reminds me of Yaron Ezrahi’s words, “The new system of diffusion -the Internet- is more likely to transmit irrationality than rationality, because irrationality is more emotionally loaded, it requires less knowledge, it explains more to more people, it goes down easier.”

Its just a great relief that most posters on Marmot’s Hole are are the inquisitive, rational type, not mentally lazy or prone to conspiracy theories.

]]> By: baduk http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26049 baduk Fri, 02 Dec 2005 07:57:13 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26049 MiHwa, When the US leaves, Korea will implode. The poor people in Korea will be incited by NK and China to rise up and kill the rich. Rich people will flee to other countries. With no US influence, politicians will kowtow to China in major way. They know Korea cannot fight China. Slowly Chinese banks and Chinese companies will buy up Korean industries with these politicians help. China's GNP is 1/10 of Korea's. The Chinese will sap the wealth out of Korea. Even down to the level of NK. Kushibo, After unification, there will be Russian style mob in Korea, composed of former NK military officers ruling Korea. They will blackmail and assassinate South Koreans till they gain the wealth of the country. They might even resurrect the Communist party and make the whole country a Communist nation. Maybe another Kim IlSung will appear, an absolute dictator. One thing is clear. It will not be a smooth transition. Much confusion like in 1945. Mucho violence. Mucho death. In the end, people may welcome Chinese troops to come and restore order. Unification is not good. After the collapse, giving NK to China is not a bad idea. Let the Chinese deal with them for a while. Educate them in market economy. Better than having those refugees come down and wrecking havoc(civil and military) in SK. They are more used to Chinese lifestyle anyway. MiHwa,

When the US leaves, Korea will implode. The poor people in Korea will be incited by NK and China to rise up and kill the rich. Rich people will flee to other countries.

With no US influence, politicians will kowtow to China in major way. They know Korea cannot fight China. Slowly Chinese banks and Chinese companies will buy up Korean industries with these politicians help.

China’s GNP is 1/10 of Korea’s. The Chinese will sap the wealth out of Korea. Even down to the level of NK.

Kushibo,

After unification, there will be Russian style mob in Korea, composed of former NK military officers ruling Korea. They will blackmail and assassinate South Koreans till they gain the wealth of the country. They might even resurrect the Communist party and make the whole country a Communist nation. Maybe another Kim IlSung will appear, an absolute dictator.

One thing is clear. It will not be a smooth transition. Much confusion like in 1945. Mucho violence. Mucho death. In the end, people may welcome Chinese troops to come and restore order.

Unification is not good. After the collapse, giving NK to China is not a bad idea. Let the Chinese deal with them for a while. Educate them in market economy. Better than having those refugees come down and wrecking havoc(civil and military) in SK. They are more used to Chinese lifestyle anyway.

]]> By: baduk http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26048 baduk Fri, 02 Dec 2005 07:37:34 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26048 Brendon, Do not worry. Pseudo-intellectuals like Kang and others are slowly moving Korea away from the US influence and toward China's sphere of influence. Within ten year(?), SK will be more friendly toward China. China-SK-NK alliance will be born. Free travel in all three countries. No war and no headache for the US? No. NK and SK will play "double trouble" for the US. Both countries will have nukes and missiles that can hit the continental USA. Under China's guidance, both countries will play gangsters. They will demand payments from the US. You know that NK is rather difficult to attack due to their troop strength and possibility of China entering the war. Multiply that by two. "Penny wise and pound foolish"! Brendon,

Do not worry. Pseudo-intellectuals like Kang and others are slowly moving Korea away from the US influence and toward China’s sphere of influence.

Within ten year(?), SK will be more friendly toward China. China-SK-NK alliance will be born. Free travel in all three countries. No war and no headache for the US?

No. NK and SK will play “double trouble” for the US. Both countries will have nukes and missiles that can hit the continental USA. Under China’s guidance, both countries will play gangsters. They will demand payments from the US.

You know that NK is rather difficult to attack due to their troop strength and possibility of China entering the war. Multiply that by two.

“Penny wise and pound foolish”!

]]> By: Mi-Hwa http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26047 Mi-Hwa Fri, 02 Dec 2005 07:29:52 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26047 Even if China were to takeover North Korea after its collapse, China has no claim over South Korea. South Korea is a member in very good standing at the UN, and is respected as a sovereign and independent nation. If China tries to threaten South Korea, there will be so much world outrage that China would not even dare. Plus, China wants to maintain friendly relations with South Korea for political, economic, cultural, and historic reasons. Even if China were to takeover North Korea after its collapse, China has no claim over South Korea. South Korea is a member in very good standing at the UN, and is respected as a sovereign and independent nation. If China tries to threaten South Korea, there will be so much world outrage that China would not even dare. Plus, China wants to maintain friendly relations with South Korea for political, economic, cultural, and historic reasons.

]]> By: Brendon Carr http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26046 Brendon Carr Thu, 01 Dec 2005 22:55:32 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26046 If North Korea were to suddenly implode, PLA troops would be in downtown Pyongyang and at the DMZ within hours, holding the disintegrating DPRK hostage until the ROK adn the USA give them what they want, which might mean the ROC. This is true. Why, again, is it in the United States' interest to remain in "alliance" with the Republic of Korea until this happens? So that American troops cities can get nuked when the South Korean president "cannot accept" the PRC's demands? If North Korea were to suddenly implode, PLA troops would be in downtown Pyongyang and at the DMZ within hours, holding the disintegrating DPRK hostage until the ROK adn the USA give them what they want, which might mean the ROC.

This is true. Why, again, is it in the United States’ interest to remain in “alliance” with the Republic of Korea until this happens? So that American troops cities can get nuked when the South Korean president “cannot accept” the PRC’s demands?

]]> By: kushibo http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/11/29/david-kang-on-unification-and-the-rok-us-alliance/#comment-26045 kushibo Thu, 01 Dec 2005 22:48:19 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2181#comment-26045 Maybe strengthening North Korea will only delay unification forever, but that is better than the alternative of seeing our #11 economy slip to #25 or #50. Korea's #11 economy is in terms of overall size, right? How would this go down by absorbing North Korea? Even if the absorbed North Korean economy were worth only 39 cents, Korea's trillion-dollar economy would still be at least 11th in size. I've heard lots of people worry about the cost of unification, the uncertainty of jobs as cheap North Korean labor floods the South, the worry of crime, etc., but never a worry that the GDP size rank would go down. Certainly not from an informed person (and hopefully it is informed people making government decisions, though sometimes I wonder). Per capita GDP (currently around $19,200) would go down, certainly, but Korea is much further down the list on that anyway (around #45 if you don't count the Isle of Man, Macau, Greenland, Guam, etc., as separate countries). Maybe strengthening North Korea will only delay unification forever, but that is better than the alternative of seeing our #11 economy slip to #25 or #50.

Korea’s #11 economy is in terms of overall size, right? How would this go down by absorbing North Korea?

Even if the absorbed North Korean economy were worth only 39 cents, Korea’s trillion-dollar economy would still be at least 11th in size.

I’ve heard lots of people worry about the cost of unification, the uncertainty of jobs as cheap North Korean labor floods the South, the worry of crime, etc., but never a worry that the GDP size rank would go down. Certainly not from an informed person (and hopefully it is informed people making government decisions, though sometimes I wonder).

Per capita GDP (currently around $19,200) would go down, certainly, but Korea is much further down the list on that anyway (around #45 if you don’t count the Isle of Man, Macau, Greenland, Guam, etc., as separate countries).

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