Konchog over at Dreaming Of Danzan Ravjaa discussed the role Mongolia is trying to play in encouraging the North Koreans to change. He notes:
How interesting that Mongolia, a democracy that is all of 15 years old, is already trying to export what has worked for them, and help others avoid its mistakes.
There’s more to chew on here, from the tricky balance of power and interests of strategic alliances with large, strong nations, to coping with refugees, to Mongolia’s understandable wish for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.
Interesting, indeed. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how successful Mongolia can be in this regard, judging by Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayar’s comments:
‘We are just trying to show North Koreans that when the whole world is changing, somehow you have to respond to these changes, and it’s better by changing yourself,’ said Mr. Enkhbayar, who was elected to office in May. ‘And that there is no danger in changing by yourself.’ “
You see, Mr. President, that’s just it — for totalitarian dictators like Kim Jong-il, changing by yourself can be mighty dangerous. One slip up, and he’s hanging from a lightpost. This is the whole crux of the issue — even the North Korean authorities have to understand that things probably need to change, but at the same time, they realize that change is a threat to the survival of their regime, and a threat to the survival of the regime could be a threat to their physical survival. Hence, recent moves suggesting that Pyongyang might be retreating from even the limited “reforms” undertaken in 2002. And, of course, with Pyongyang receiving generous support from its Chinese and South Korean patrons, and still awaiting the “Mother of All Paydays” from the United States and Japan, the North Korean authorities might be able to avoid making a choice between economic collapse and risky reform.
9 Comments
The only thing changing on this pen is the color of the leaves.
why should anyone listen to those undeveloped mongolian dogs? (not serious, just incase someone takes offence)
Marmot,
I see you are in a literary mood today.
Here are my two-cents,
“One slip up, and he?s hanging from a lightpost.”
I might add ” with his **** cut off”.
“still awaiting the Mother of All Paydays??
I love it. NKs are waiting for a Jackpot that will never come. They should be happy just milking their own brothers dry. If SKs let them, they like to bring down SKs to their level of living. “Brothers together in suffering, brothers together in poverty” - unification slogan.
“And, of course, with Pyongyang receiving generous support from its Chinese and South Korean patrons”
Does this mean that Marmot is pro-sanction? Just curious.
With South Korea, it is not an issue of imposing sanctions but ending hand outs.
At a minimum ROK food aid should be monitored by the World Food Program and any economic aid should be tied to reciprocating measures by the North Koreans. I think Kim Dae-Jung could have at least bought the closing of some prison camps for the $500,000,000 his government arranged to put into KJI’s coffers. Roh could also ask North Korea to give a little for the aid it is taking.
That takes us to the heart of the whole puzzle we find ourselves in. It has been official policy of the last two Korean governments to keep the Pyongyang regime propped up at all costs. This means that there are few credible sticks in Uncle Sam’s negotiating bag in the Six Party Talks. I don’t think there can be a negotiated solution that will be funded by Congress (a crucial factor in any deal that requires American economic aid to NK) until a new government is elected in South Korea.
On the other hand, if Chung Dong-yung gets elected in 2008, it’s time to wash our hands of the whole matter and just let Seoul finance the Norks until they realized that they are getting taken for a ride.
The full story appears on the One Free Korea blog. The Mongolians have also acknowledged offering a safe haven to North Korean refugees, in spite of opposition from North Korea and China. Hooray for Mongolia! Even the US refuses to take any North Korean refugees on the excuse that spies could pose as refugees in order to get into the US.
Even the US refuses to take any North Korean refugees on the excuse that spies could pose as refugees in order to get into the US.
Is that for real? What about that whole North Korean Human Rights Act? Does that still not offer NORKs refugee status in the U.S., if they ever make it here?
And I guess the whole spy thing is a legit concern. It’s happened in ROK (or was it China too?) but would they care about Mongolia?
unrelated to this post, and I don’t care if Kim Jong Il ever opens up, because he deserves to be hanged…
Why do those North Korean Buddhist monks have hair? Full grown normal hair?
I already know that they can’t be really involved with their religion, because Kim Jong Il is supreme in North Korea, but that was really weird.
i think Kim Jong Il, when captured, should be tried in a court, broadcasted world wide, and hanged. Let his family members have freedom as long as they are not innocent.