The Marmot’s Hole

By ANDY JACKSON
Marmot?????s Hole Guest Blogger

Korea is having by-elections today to replace four legislators who were convicted of illegal campaigning or other corrupt practices. The four seats were held by two members of the Grand National Party(GNP), and one each from Our Open Party(OOP) and the Democratic Labor Party(DLP).

If typical voting patterns hold in Korea, the GNP will be aided by the fact that these are minor elections on a week day since older conservatives tend to be more consistent voters. That and the fact that the GNP already holds two of the seats limits the potential propaganda points that a GNP sweep would score.

Here are the predictions:

The Korea Herald: 2 GNP, 2 toss-ups
The Korea Times: 2 GNP, 2 toss-ups
Yonhap: 3 GNP, 1 toss-up between the GNP and DLP
The Yangban: 3 GNP, 1 DLP

Interestingly, one of the more competitive districts is in Taegu, an area that I had thought would be safe for the GNP. It is my understanding that Lee Kang-chul, the OOP candidate, has unsuccessfully run for office several times. In the States such a track record would earn one the politically fatal moniker of ‘perennial candidate.’ But in Korea, were Kim Dae-jung ran for president something like three times over the course of three decades, such persistence can pay off.