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	<title>Comments on: Prof. Kang &#8212; he&#8217;s already won</title>
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	<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/</link>
	<description>Korea... in Blog Format</description>
	<pubDate>Sat, 11 Oct 2008 23:03:21 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24727</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Oct 2005 00:07:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24727</guid>
		<description>Yes, you're right about it being a "political" vacuum.  The disconnect between  political and diplomatic realities in many places has become dangerous IMO and the two need to be brought into alignment with each other.  

For one thing, we ought to use formal declarations of war again.  We should have one currently against Al Queda.  There should have been one against the Taliban (with a peace treaty and formal alliance then concluded with the current Afghan government, and the same with Iraq).  One big advantage: getting bloviating US Senators on the record ahead of time, before they can acquire 20/20 hindsight.  

And we ought to sign a peace treaty with North Korea and get out, now that South Korea has essentially recognized them as a separate country.  Political actions ought to have real (and irrevocable) diplomatic consequences.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, you&#8217;re right about it being a &#8220;political&#8221; vacuum.  The disconnect between  political and diplomatic realities in many places has become dangerous IMO and the two need to be brought into alignment with each other.  </p>
<p>For one thing, we ought to use formal declarations of war again.  We should have one currently against Al Queda.  There should have been one against the Taliban (with a peace treaty and formal alliance then concluded with the current Afghan government, and the same with Iraq).  One big advantage: getting bloviating US Senators on the record ahead of time, before they can acquire 20/20 hindsight.  </p>
<p>And we ought to sign a peace treaty with North Korea and get out, now that South Korea has essentially recognized them as a separate country.  Political actions ought to have real (and irrevocable) diplomatic consequences.</p>
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		<title>By: lirelou</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24726</link>
		<dc:creator>lirelou</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Oct 2005 17:22:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24726</guid>
		<description>Paul H. Good points. 1975, of course, was a political vacuum rather than diplomatic, and is not likely to be repeated soon. As I recall, we had zero formal alliance with Kuwait. It was merely in our interest. We have zero formal alliances with Israel. In fact, most of the nations that many of our generals loosely refer to as Allies are not in any form of alliance with us. (And some of those who are, we don't presently like very much) We don't need an alliance to go to war. Nor does an alliance dating back 50 years guarantee that we will be there. If the "chancellor" of the moment decides that the conflict is not "worth the bones of a Pomeranian Grenadier", then any alliance becomes mere paper.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul H. Good points. 1975, of course, was a political vacuum rather than diplomatic, and is not likely to be repeated soon. As I recall, we had zero formal alliance with Kuwait. It was merely in our interest. We have zero formal alliances with Israel. In fact, most of the nations that many of our generals loosely refer to as Allies are not in any form of alliance with us. (And some of those who are, we don&#8217;t presently like very much) We don&#8217;t need an alliance to go to war. Nor does an alliance dating back 50 years guarantee that we will be there. If the &#8220;chancellor&#8221; of the moment decides that the conflict is not &#8220;worth the bones of a Pomeranian Grenadier&#8221;, then any alliance becomes mere paper.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24725</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Oct 2005 10:32:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24725</guid>
		<description>An interesting analogy but a future war won't happen in a diplomatic vacuum.  If a future ultranationalist ROK government wants to take such "public positions", then a future US government can warn them formally that the US may decide to withdraw from its obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty.  

(Marmot linked to the formal text of the MDT a while back  I failed to bookmark it, or the bookmark is lost in an endless sea somewhere on my computer.  I need to go back and review it for myself, but I presume the language allows for both sides to be able to withdraw after appropriate notice is given).   

IMO the US has "hyperinflated" the currency of a formal alliance with us by giving the world the impression that we are willing to do anything and everything.  This has been a long time coming, but I think one key event in this development of this attitude post-Cold War was the sudden announced commitment by Bush 41 in early Aug 1990 that "this will not stand" (ref Iraqi invasion of Kuwait). 

If I'm not mistaken, we had no formal alliance with Kuwait (a traditional ally of UK, prior to the UK withdrawal from "east of Suez"; if the UK had kept a battalion or two resident in Kuwait, it's interesting to speculate on how current history might have turned out very differently).  But the Kuwaitis were as content as anyone else in the Arab world to indulge in US bashing and to keep their distance from any defense relationship with the US -- until suddenly they calculated wrong.  

And then all of a sudden they can't wait for us to get there fast enough.  "Stay out of sight far offshore US, but oh by the way if we decide we need you we will want everything you've got and it better be here instantly."   

If you want to be a US ally there ought to be a cost.  And that cost is: a country's politicians and people don't get to have their cake and eat it too. 

I don't ask for "kowtowing", just a refrain from US-bashing for purposes of domestic politics.  Prolonged indulgence in this exhilarating wine ought to produce severe consequences.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An interesting analogy but a future war won&#8217;t happen in a diplomatic vacuum.  If a future ultranationalist ROK government wants to take such &#8220;public positions&#8221;, then a future US government can warn them formally that the US may decide to withdraw from its obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty.  </p>
<p>(Marmot linked to the formal text of the MDT a while back  I failed to bookmark it, or the bookmark is lost in an endless sea somewhere on my computer.  I need to go back and review it for myself, but I presume the language allows for both sides to be able to withdraw after appropriate notice is given).   </p>
<p>IMO the US has &#8220;hyperinflated&#8221; the currency of a formal alliance with us by giving the world the impression that we are willing to do anything and everything.  This has been a long time coming, but I think one key event in this development of this attitude post-Cold War was the sudden announced commitment by Bush 41 in early Aug 1990 that &#8220;this will not stand&#8221; (ref Iraqi invasion of Kuwait). </p>
<p>If I&#8217;m not mistaken, we had no formal alliance with Kuwait (a traditional ally of UK, prior to the UK withdrawal from &#8220;east of Suez&#8221;; if the UK had kept a battalion or two resident in Kuwait, it&#8217;s interesting to speculate on how current history might have turned out very differently).  But the Kuwaitis were as content as anyone else in the Arab world to indulge in US bashing and to keep their distance from any defense relationship with the US &#8212; until suddenly they calculated wrong.  </p>
<p>And then all of a sudden they can&#8217;t wait for us to get there fast enough.  &#8220;Stay out of sight far offshore US, but oh by the way if we decide we need you we will want everything you&#8217;ve got and it better be here instantly.&#8221;   </p>
<p>If you want to be a US ally there ought to be a cost.  And that cost is: a country&#8217;s politicians and people don&#8217;t get to have their cake and eat it too. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t ask for &#8220;kowtowing&#8221;, just a refrain from US-bashing for purposes of domestic politics.  Prolonged indulgence in this exhilarating wine ought to produce severe consequences.</p>
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		<title>By: lirelou</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24724</link>
		<dc:creator>lirelou</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2005 15:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24724</guid>
		<description>Paul H. Calling in Air Power will also be up to the Administration of the period. The U.S. was obligated by agreement to provide air support to the Republic of Vietnam in April 1975, but the Ford Administration opted not to do so. To be fair to Ford, no one had ever directly elected him President, and he knew the divisivness a decision to send in the Air Force could have triggered just a few years after Kent State, itself a reaction to the invasion of the Cambodian sanctuaries. Korea could find itself in the same situation if some ultranationalist government took a series of public positions against the U.S. that eroded public support for assisting Korea in any conflict with the north.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul H. Calling in Air Power will also be up to the Administration of the period. The U.S. was obligated by agreement to provide air support to the Republic of Vietnam in April 1975, but the Ford Administration opted not to do so. To be fair to Ford, no one had ever directly elected him President, and he knew the divisivness a decision to send in the Air Force could have triggered just a few years after Kent State, itself a reaction to the invasion of the Cambodian sanctuaries. Korea could find itself in the same situation if some ultranationalist government took a series of public positions against the U.S. that eroded public support for assisting Korea in any conflict with the north.</p>
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		<title>By: usinkorea</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24723</link>
		<dc:creator>usinkorea</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2005 12:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24723</guid>
		<description>I haven't read the comments, so if somebody scooped me on this, I didn't see it...

I'm working on a long post, but I am getting a strong feeling the anti-US civic leaders, with possibly some direction from Pyongyang, have played all this masterfully.

I couldn't make sense of the promotion of the 9/11 protest and then the low turn out of even the core members.  

Now, after watching the last few weeks, I think the professor coming out like he has works hand in hand with what we saw before and after the 9/11 protests.

I thought the groups might have made a big mistake by attracting the international press and driving Korean society's anti-US activity by average Koreans into a period of turtle mode, but now I think they played everything right.

They have set up the interntional coverage and took the heat from the average Koreans, because they knew they were going to bury the violent Pyongtaek protests that have been going on for the last several months as well as the violent protests at Inchon, and they were going to highlight the nutty professor --- who can say the same stuff, get as much rise out of conservative Korean society and possibly some in the press --- but who can be easily dismissed as a wackjob -- and even more easily defended outside of inside but more so outside Korean society for academic freedom.

The whole violence leading up to the 9/11 protest and that day</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven&#8217;t read the comments, so if somebody scooped me on this, I didn&#8217;t see it&#8230;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m working on a long post, but I am getting a strong feeling the anti-US civic leaders, with possibly some direction from Pyongyang, have played all this masterfully.</p>
<p>I couldn&#8217;t make sense of the promotion of the 9/11 protest and then the low turn out of even the core members.  </p>
<p>Now, after watching the last few weeks, I think the professor coming out like he has works hand in hand with what we saw before and after the 9/11 protests.</p>
<p>I thought the groups might have made a big mistake by attracting the international press and driving Korean society&#8217;s anti-US activity by average Koreans into a period of turtle mode, but now I think they played everything right.</p>
<p>They have set up the interntional coverage and took the heat from the average Koreans, because they knew they were going to bury the violent Pyongtaek protests that have been going on for the last several months as well as the violent protests at Inchon, and they were going to highlight the nutty professor &#8212; who can say the same stuff, get as much rise out of conservative Korean society and possibly some in the press &#8212; but who can be easily dismissed as a wackjob &#8212; and even more easily defended outside of inside but more so outside Korean society for academic freedom.</p>
<p>The whole violence leading up to the 9/11 protest and that day</p>
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		<title>By: virtual wonderer</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24722</link>
		<dc:creator>virtual wonderer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2005 09:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24722</guid>
		<description>Baduk, I donno...  The damage has already been done, and the schoolboys already believe him.  At this point we can do two things:  minimize damage and engage in the healing process.  People associate Korean Police with Hannara, and I think they screwed up.  But I feel like broken tape recorder so i'll stop.

Rowan, I'm not sure where our views differ...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baduk, I donno&#8230;  The damage has already been done, and the schoolboys already believe him.  At this point we can do two things:  minimize damage and engage in the healing process.  People associate Korean Police with Hannara, and I think they screwed up.  But I feel like broken tape recorder so i&#8217;ll stop.</p>
<p>Rowan, I&#8217;m not sure where our views differ&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24721</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2005 06:41:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24721</guid>
		<description>The US airpower/seapower analogy (between Taiwan 1996 and ROK today) is an appropriate analogy though (between the two situations).  

If (when?) US ground forces are gone, it will be a clarifying moment.  US can support from offshore against the DPRK threat.  With US ground forces gone, they will be removed as a convenient scapegoat in ROK domestic politics.   It can't come a moment too soon.   

US airpower is immensely more accurate and powerful than it was in 1950.  It'll be up to the ROK administration whether they want to call it in or not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The US airpower/seapower analogy (between Taiwan 1996 and ROK today) is an appropriate analogy though (between the two situations).  </p>
<p>If (when?) US ground forces are gone, it will be a clarifying moment.  US can support from offshore against the DPRK threat.  With US ground forces gone, they will be removed as a convenient scapegoat in ROK domestic politics.   It can&#8217;t come a moment too soon.   </p>
<p>US airpower is immensely more accurate and powerful than it was in 1950.  It&#8217;ll be up to the ROK administration whether they want to call it in or not.</p>
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		<title>By: baduk</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24720</link>
		<dc:creator>baduk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2005 17:20:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24720</guid>
		<description>Rowan,

China joined the world economy.  However, that did not stop it from openly attacking Taiwan.  You remember about seven years ago, China sent troops ships to Taiwan.  The US Navy stopped the attack by blocking them. 

When the US pull out, NK and China will attack together.  SK military may(this is a big may) take care of NK but, when they see Chinese army, the white flag goes up.  And, SK will be serving KJI from that day on.


virtual wonderer,

If one does not stop likes of Kang, more Commies will start talking.  And, some innocent schoolboys may believe these fools.  

The Uri party will be gone soon.  It was fun to contact NK about four years ago, but KJI has been nothing but a gadfly who sucks up money from SKs.  Nobody like extortion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rowan,</p>
<p>China joined the world economy.  However, that did not stop it from openly attacking Taiwan.  You remember about seven years ago, China sent troops ships to Taiwan.  The US Navy stopped the attack by blocking them. </p>
<p>When the US pull out, NK and China will attack together.  SK military may(this is a big may) take care of NK but, when they see Chinese army, the white flag goes up.  And, SK will be serving KJI from that day on.</p>
<p>virtual wonderer,</p>
<p>If one does not stop likes of Kang, more Commies will start talking.  And, some innocent schoolboys may believe these fools.  </p>
<p>The Uri party will be gone soon.  It was fun to contact NK about four years ago, but KJI has been nothing but a gadfly who sucks up money from SKs.  Nobody like extortion.</p>
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		<title>By: rowan</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24719</link>
		<dc:creator>rowan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2005 15:39:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24719</guid>
		<description>Baduk,

the difference now from 50 years ago:

the cold war has ended,
the USSR has broken up and russia has turned to the market system,
China has joined the world economy,
Sk has developed greatly,
NK has become poorer than ever,

The only neighbour that hasn't really changed in a way that would affect the situation is japan.  i'm sure there are many more but thos ealone change the dynamics so much that i can't see a NK attack happening, and if it did certainly not being successful.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baduk,</p>
<p>the difference now from 50 years ago:</p>
<p>the cold war has ended,<br />
the USSR has broken up and russia has turned to the market system,<br />
China has joined the world economy,<br />
Sk has developed greatly,<br />
NK has become poorer than ever,</p>
<p>The only neighbour that hasn&#8217;t really changed in a way that would affect the situation is japan.  i&#8217;m sure there are many more but thos ealone change the dynamics so much that i can&#8217;t see a NK attack happening, and if it did certainly not being successful.</p>
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		<title>By: rowan</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/10/18/prof-kang-hes-already-won/#comment-24718</link>
		<dc:creator>rowan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2005 07:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rjkoehler.com/?p=2080#comment-24718</guid>
		<description>i don't think that the taiwan issue is really that appropriate to the korean situation.  not many countries even recognise taiwan as an independent country, and even since that time china has come a long way.  the further they come the more they have to lose.  i think that they may well intervene if NK was attacked, but they wouldn't support a NKorean attack.

your point to VW, i have to disagree with too.  just shutting people up is not the way to go.  you have to show why they are wrong, give a counter arguemnt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i don&#8217;t think that the taiwan issue is really that appropriate to the korean situation.  not many countries even recognise taiwan as an independent country, and even since that time china has come a long way.  the further they come the more they have to lose.  i think that they may well intervene if NK was attacked, but they wouldn&#8217;t support a NKorean attack.</p>
<p>your point to VW, i have to disagree with too.  just shutting people up is not the way to go.  you have to show why they are wrong, give a counter arguemnt.</p>
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