This being a blog that is “Korea, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week” I guess one of us should say something about the latest Nork demand for a light water reactor (LWR) from the USA. First, here is the obligatory quote:
North Korea’s vice foreign minister has urged the United States to provide North Korea with light-water reactors as soon as possible, vowing to make every effort to make the Korean Peninsula nuclear-free, the North’s official news agency reported Sunday.
Choe Su-hon told the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday that the provision of light-water nuclear reactors would serve as evidence that the U.S. recognizes the North’s right to peaceful nuclear activities, according to the (North) Korean Central News Agency.
“Our republic will closely watch how the U.S. will actually move at the stage of implementation in the future,” Choe said in reference to the agreement forged in Beijing on Monday, under which they are to discuss the light-water reactor issue at an appropriate time.
Yada. Yada.
The Norks know that is not going to happen. All five nations except North Korea want it to end all of its nuclear programs before considering a new LWR. Also, if they expect the US Congress to pay for a new LWR they are completely insane. That’s not a deal breaker. It’s a non-starter (yeah, I stole that line from Hill).
The Norks know this. So their continued demands are either just positioning for the next round of talks or a red herring tossed in to derail them. Either way, it is not something to take seriously.
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Speaking of blogging, what happened here? Did the Marmot pull a muscle or something putting on his hanbok during Chuseok?
(Seriously, I hope he’s just on a temporary, well-deserved hiatus and there’s nothing wrong)
I’ll be back to blogging from tonight. Just needed a little breather, and besides, Shelton and Andy have been doing a good job holding down the fort.
Indeed they have, Marmot. Just missed ya, that’s all. How about them Yankees, eh? I would say something about the Indians but I just know if I talk smack now, I’ll jinx them.
Now I suppose they would like some obligatory cheese with their whine?
Maybe we could send an Army of Hippies to the North armed with geothermal energy systems, solar panels, and massive wind turbines. Hmmm… Birkenstok Brigade or something like that…
Yangban: “All five nations except North Korea want it to end all of its nuclear programs before considering a new LWR.”
Gerry: I am not sure if that statement is true, based on comments I have heard in the Korean media. At least one South Korean lawmaker is talking as if there has already been an agreement to supply North Korea with a LWR.
Last Thursday, on the MBC program “100 Minute Debate,” Uri Party lawmaker Im Jong-seok seemed to suggest that work could begin on a LWR while North Korea is disarming since it would take as long as ten years to complete the reactor. That makes me believe that the Roh administration will suggest such a compromise at the next round of talks. I believe that North and South Korea, at least, are plotting together on this issue. Otherwise, why is North Korea insisting that the US provide the reactor, rather than South Korea, for example? As a security guarantee? Bullshit!
I do not think the current South Korean administration really cares is North Korea has nukes or not. Their main goal is just to make North Korea economically viable, in preparation for eventual unification. Afterall, if North Korea has nukes when they unify, then a unified Korea will have nukes, which will be just fine with most Koreans.
South Korea wants the US, Japan, and other countries to normalize relations with North Korea so that South Korean companies can go to North Korea and manufacture and export their products from there. Without normalized relations, no one is going to buy North Korean products, except South Koreans. I think South Korea sees North Korea as one of her few options for competing with Chinese manufacturers and their cheap labor.
Again, if the US and Japan want to get rid of North Korea’s nukes, then they should ignore South Korean advice and wait until all the nukes are gone before normalizing relations with North Korea.
SK is a soverign country and it can do what it considers to be its national interest. It can promise to build a LWR to NK and start doing so, as soon as NK allows the inspectors in without delay. However, if NK says no inspectors till a LWR is built, which just put delay into admitting inspectors, then the US must say “no deal”.
For some, SK and the US seemed to be playing the good cop/bad cop routine and they may think it might have worked. With the pressure coming from China, NK will have to admit inspectors in near future with the promise (or the start) of a LWR construction. I expect the construction will take at least a couple of years. One may think that inspectors can at least delay NK’s nuke program sufficiently that the US can deal with Iran first before turning eyes back to NK.
However, these NK commies are worthy of no trust. After the 1994 accord of freezing nuke development, these commies have continued working on nuke bombs. Inspectors were completely fooled because, according to NK declaration, the concentration of Uranium was done with a different technology at a different location.
Don’t talk to terrorists. Just bomb! The US doesn’t have to listen to four fools before taking out the villain who openly threatens the security of the US. Bombing those suspected sites will put strong dent in their nuke program (might even collapse KJI regime) and show these fools in no uncertain terms that the US will not stand for this kind of nonsense any more.
Be strong under threat. Remember the difference between Chamberlain and Churchill in dealing with Hitler.
And, the Hitler in the present situation is China. (with Russia in the background).
Who said the cold war is over?
As I wrote before, joining the six party talk was a mistake. The US must walk out now! Don’t join in again till NK approves all demands.
And more. The US should ask unlimited travel in and out of NK to inspect ANY suspected sites. ANY sites! The 1994 accord left this out.
Since NKs openly declared hostile intentions against the US and teach their population so, the US must have rights to wage war against the hostile terrorist regime. Since the US does not recognize KJI regime to be representing the people of North Korea, the US must deal with KJI regime as terrorists.
Just walk out of the six party talk. It was and is a trap. Just walk out. And, dictate terms.
As Gbevers said, the URI party probably has other ideals about providing nuclear plants to North Korea.
But as for these couple of retorics that keeps popping up:
Afterall, if North Korea has nukes when they unify, then a unified Korea will have nukes, which will be just fine with most Koreans.
South Korea is perfectly and easily capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons technology on its own, why would they need outdated/untested North Korean weapons of mass destruction? That quote is out of a fiction book. Even if Koreas unite, it will only make sense that South Korea would be under severe international pressure to liquidate and hand over all the nuclear weapons left over by the North Korean regime.
Without normalized relations, no one is going to buy North Korean products, except South Koreans. I think South Korea sees North Korea as one of her few options for competing with Chinese manufacturers and their cheap labor.
South Korea doesn’t need to ship out the goods from North Korea. They can easily ship the North Korean made goods out of South Korea and stamp them “Made In Korea” and nobody would know the difference. That’s not the main reason for the eagerness of South Korean administration to see normalization with North Korea. It’s the fear of implosion (or explosion however you look at it) that is driving South Korean policies.
It?s the fear of implosion (or explosion however you look at it) that is driving South Korean policies.
Instead of antigonizing KJI for playing with a fire(nuclear), SKs are brainwashed by Rho to “embrace” their brother. This may be good for now, but is not good for the long term future of Korea.
Even in the US, people are being told to “understand” the dictator and his need for nuclear bombs for defensive purposes. It is back to “fight-or-flight” response when faced with danger. I believe American people are too brave to kneel down and beg for mercy like SKs.
The next Korean administration should and will change this Commie tide and restore the country to the right path. In the case that it does not happen, we will see the unified Korea becoming a Chinese satellite.
Kimbob,
Koreans will want nukes if ever the two Koreas unify. Not only will they be suspicious of a nuclear-armed China, but Koreans, by nature, seem to hate not having what others have. Koreans want to make their own tanks, the own fighter jets, their own warships, their own missles, their own submarines, and their own satellites. Why wouldn’t they also want to make their own nukes?
The only reason South Koreans do not have nukes today is because the confrontation with North Korea gives the US a lot of leverage. That leverage will pretty much disappear when the two Koreas unite.
Koreans dream of making a united Korea into the world’s greatest country. They will reason that nukes will be necessary to make that possible.
International pressure on a united Korea will work just about as well as it has worked on North Korea, India, and Pakistan.
I think the United States will know if South Korea tries to illegally export North Korean goods. South Korea has invested a lot of money in North Korea and has big plans for investing more. That money will have been wasted and those plans ruined if the US and Japan do not normalize relations with North Korea.
Why wouldn?t they also want to make their own nukes
Because there is what we call reality. South Korea belongs to NPT, and not getting rid of the inherited NK nukes will break that (and turn S.Korea into an outlawed state) at a time when South Korea will need all of the international help (especially American money) it can get to rebuild a reunited Korea. Please, I know the current SK government is dense, but not that dense.
Some South Koreans may want to make their own nukes (this minority may change to majority if North Korea doesn’t collapse and the US withdraws from South Korea), but there is absolutely no shred of evidence that the majority want the crudely made North Korean nukes.
Some questions for anyone who knows:
How far along did they get with the previous LWR’s for NorK? If I recall correctly, there were two of them, Japan and ROK were funding them, they poured some portion of the concrete base and/or framework but that’s all (in sporadic bursts of activity?).
What were the inclusive dates when actual constrution was still ongoing? Was there still some activity through the end of the Clinton administration or did construction stop completely prior to Jan 2001?
Location of them (ie in close proximity to each other or separated by some distance)? If there were two LWR’s previously promised under the Agreed Framework, why is there now only implied discussion of just one?
And presumably any “new” deal would involve renewing the construction activity on one (or both) of these, rather than starting a new one in a second (or third) location?
Please Baduk, spare me any rhetorical bombing attacks, as I’ve put on my “neutral” hat for this post. Politicians of all countries are capable of reversing field at any moment; I’m just asking some questions about the practicalities of restarting the previous LWR project, in case the parties do reach some kind of an “agreement”. I’m not holding my breath expecting this will happen.
What were the inclusive dates when actual constrution was still ongoing? Was there still some activity through the end of the Clinton administration or did construction stop completely prior to Jan 2001?
I don’t know, but Gbevers assertions that South Korean want NORK nukes because Koreans want to be ‘greatest country in the world’ is an over the top projection on his part. First of all, who doesn’t want their country to be the greatest country? But that doesn’t mean everyone wants nukes.
And if you look at the history of South Korea, most of the emphasis has been economic development, not military buildup. South Koreans want to build cars, micro chips, cell phones, and flat panels, not build up and maintain wasteful military hardware like nuclear missiles made by North Korea. South Korea, unlike North Korea, heavily depends on the world for export markets. Breaking the NPT will shut off that economic pipeline.
gbevers-
I think the United States will know if South Korea tries to illegally export North Korean goods.
they’ll never know. korean factories in shandong, china manufacture goods everyday that are shipped to SK. “made in korea” is affixed and then they go directly to the US. china can get around quotas and korea can say that it’s still a globally competitive manufacturer.
just think of how much easier it will be in DPRK.
as for having nukes on a united peninsula, that’s a want. you’re right that many south koreans currently think that a united peninsula with nuclear capabilities would be wonderful. however, it ain’t gonna happen. US lawmakers and the war machine know too well the temper-prone korean characteristic. they’re simply just too volatile a people for nuclear capabilities. japan is also too aware of their pent-up payback mind to allow them.
Hey, I know Solar Power is a nice, clean, and safe alternative to Nuclear power. Think the Norks would take us up on that offer in place of their precious nukes?
well, it’s always a case of contract creation when it comes to defense budgets. the more they have, the more we need, and so on and so on. SK has put aside a bit of money for military robotics:
http://times.hankooki.com/lpag.....211960.htm
perhaps the timing is right to fill a presumed US military void or perhaps it’s just their way of trying to get on the world stage with all the other military robotics coming out as of late. now if they can arm it with a nuke…
On nukes in SK: Many SKoreans are somewhat proud of NK nukes, and might like the idea of having them if reunited. I am sure it would be much easier to rationalize possessing nukes if they didn?t actually make them, but inherited them. Especially if the international community didn?t realize they existed (e.g., inspectors missed a few, etc.). It would not be surprising to find out in such a case that a N-S conspiracy existed for that very purpose (if it was apparent the reunifications was immanent and under the SK system). If the world knew/found out, I agree that SK would likely let itself be compelled to give it up, since they could not
But the main factor in determining if SK will go nuclear or not is the presence of U.S. troops after reunification ? if the U.S. leaves/is ??asked? to leave, SK will feel threatened by China, as Bevers pointed out, but also by Japan, rational or not. They will be weak with the cost of reunification, and nukes would be a very attractive/cheap alternative to investing in an expensive conventional military (NK?s military is in real terms practically worthless, except the big guns and bunkers, otherwise mostly a bunch of junk). It would most likely lead to a regional arms race, which could also pressure Japan to go nuclear. The key to avoiding all of that is for the U.S. to stay in Korea.
On SK military investment: Actually SK tried to build their own fighters, but opted out after spending a lot on it. They developed their own tanks and personnel carriers, and recently announced their somewhat absurd ?dog/horse?? combat robot under development mentioned above. It?s not only a process to build the expertise, but a major pride factor, and somewhat less financial.
‘korean pride…’
here we go again with that korean pride thing. you mean no other nation feels pride? please, wake up. pride can be a double edge sword, can’t it? sometimes pride motivates you out of poverty. and sometimes, pride makes you continue a war you know you can’t win.
which is worse? i suppose i should ask an iraqi.
Depends on which particular Iraqi you ask. If you decide to approach and ask the ones fighting the US, do so carefully; they’ve been known to take hostages and even behead foreigners.
Over at the “Songun” blog, you can find assertions (I would presume made by Koreans) that Americans are routinely engaged in the cannibalism of Iraqi children. I suppose if you are an Iraqi and you can believe that sort of thing, then “pride” could motivate you to keep fighting on endlessly in the face of all reality.
On the other hand, such “pride” (based on a belief in a distorted reality) can lead to extinction (both on a personal and a national level) if carried on far enough and long enough.
Still, if enough Iraqis opposed to the US can continue to be motivated by an absolute belief that Allah is with them, perhaps they can “alter” reality. Allah doesn’t have dominion over the peninsula but perhaps a shared belief in triumphant Korean nationalism can serve as an equivalent motivating force.
paul, the people of america are waking up to folks like you and the he-man expat with his well manicured nails. bush’s iraq war is a FAILURE.
i said it would be so. and now it’s so. so, when you gonna step aside so that we, who knew it would be so, can sew back the fragments you sowed from america?
your policies for the united states have failed, paul. ???!???!
’stop, listen, what’s that sound? everybody look what’s going round…’ words from a famous song
Nulji,
I did not mean, say, or imply that other nations don’t have pride.
Korean pride?? one thing that many Westerners notice when reading Korean
press, especially those that don?t read it often or having been away from
it for awhile, is the outright obsession with Korea’s place in…
everything. Ranking 11th here, 9th there, 3rd someplace else. And the
desire to move up in that ranking. That type of ‘pride’ is not (most
usually) addressed that way in the West. I don’t know how many times I
have been told by Koreans that they were the first to have moveable metal
type, have ironclads, etc.
Korean pride in industry? You bet. Military industry is no different,
hence the projects I mentioned above.
It?s noticeable and should not be controversial to say so.
As far as Iraq, my answer is that it took U.S. help (billions of dollars
and decades) to get South Korea on the track to democracy - all the while
some saying it was a waste of time and money, that the Koreans could never
achieve anything like democracy - so we can give Iraq a little more time.
Iraq was a big success. Remove the threat and got the oil. What more do you want?
Nulji, how come you never go after Baduk here? From what I can see you two seem to be political opposites.
We’re all American citizens right? So how come the dif?
Could it be “pride” in your shared Korean ethnicity? You swing furiously at me, yet give Baduk a pass when he calls for the immediate bombing of North Korean reactors. And see immediately above for his views on Iraq.
According to you the real problem is “…folks like [me] and the he-man expat with his well manicured nails…”. Well, thanks for the reminder — it is time to get my nails done again.
‘why don’t you go after baduk?’ paul
here’s a nice one for you, ol man: i wanna have a bit of debate with those who live here on planet earth. got nothing to do with ‘pride’.
If the US did not go to Iraq after Afgan, we may had another attack like the 9/11. More Islam fundamentalist freaks would have attacked the US. They just want to be the number one in the world. Knocking Americans off gives them reaffirmation that “Allah rules this planet”.
The fact is “Jesus rules the Earth”. Spain, England, America…and…and maybe Korea? Why not? England was just a small island before God used her.
The more Koreans follow THE TRUE God, the better Korea will become.
nulji,
why is it that you feel the urge to add to this forum but can never come up with relevant or at least semi-objective content? a word of advice-if you keep your mouth shut, people won’t know how stupid you are.
and judy, if you just kept your mouth shut, nobody would know what an apologist you are. i suggest you simply skip over my posts. i do that all the time with bevers and baduk. you can do the same. now i’ll let you get back to the mea culpas.
unfortunately, even when i step over doggie-doo i sometimes have to deal with the obnoxious smell-much akin to skipping your posts.
i’m just suggesting that you find some new territory to empty your bowels on.
you can always say your japanese. can’t you, judy?
Iraq was a big success. Remove the threat and got the oil.
Oh, removed it, did they?
Anyone who believes we are much better off now in Iraq (and the rest of the world) than the first few months of this war is a fool.
And why are my gas prices still so damn high?