Who needs to post about nukes or nudes when you have an election coming up? The Land of the Morning Calm will soon be blessed with another election and, in a bid to make my own blog completely irrelevant, I’ll do most of my posting about it here at the Hole.
The Next Election
Most of the elections on October 26 will be local affairs but they will have national implications. That is especially true of those in Chungcheong, the base of a new party that will probably back Goh Gun in the 2008 presidential elections. If they do well, I think we can expect a few Our Open Party (OOP, Uri) members in Chungcheong to get on board. That might even be enough for the United Liberal Democrats to finally dissolve and fold themselves into the new party.
Other than that, I think we should expect the normal match-ups of the Grand National Party (GNP) fighting it out with the OOP in Gyeonggi, the GNP struggling with the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) in parts of Gyeongsang and the OOP trying to hold on against a resurgent Democratic Party in Jeolla, although it is still a little early to tell in Korea’s mercurial political climate.
There will also at least three by-elections for the National assembly to replace lawmakers convicted of various crimes or currupt practices. Those seats are:
-Kim Gi-suk (OOP-Bucheon, Gyeonggi)
-Park Hyuk-gyu (GNP-Gwangju, Gyeonggi)
-Park Chang-dal (GNP-Daegu)
According to this piece in the Donga Ilbo, they will most like be joined by three more seats:
-Kang Sung-jong (OOP-Uijeongbu, Gyeonggi)
-Shin Sang-jin (GNP-Seongnam, Gyeonggi)
-Cho Seong-soo (DLP-Ulsan)
Those four Gyeonggi seats will be the ones to watch as they will be a pretty good barometer of how things are shaping up between the OOP and GNP.
The Next Realignment
We have had a couple of party defections this week (hat tip to One Free Korea):
Yesterday, Shin Jung-sik resigned from the Uri Party. A legislator from South Jeolla province, Mr. Shin said he would join the Democratic Party, the political vehicle for former President Kim Dae-jung. Mr. Shin said he would back Mr. Goh’s presidential bid, adding fuel to rumors that the new Chungcheong party would ally itself with the Democratic Party.
Also yesterday, Chung Woo-taik, a former lawmaker and minister, left the United Liberal Democrats for the Grand Nationals. He had been seen as a presidential candidate of his old party, although he would have had little hope of winning with them.
If memory serves, that means the OOP now has 144 seats while the GNP has 125 (UPDATE: The GNP still has 124 as Chung is a former lawmaker. My bad.).
I still don’t think the OOP will break up before late 2006 but, if they can’t show that they still have a base of support in any part of Korea, we could see a few more defections before the end of this year.
UPDATE
A comment from Orackay made me decided to share what I said about a potential Goh candidacy last December:
So, given the political minefields that must be negotiated and the contradictions inherent in Goh actively campaigning for president, how can a Goh presidency be a reality?
First of all, forget a ‘draft Goh’ campaign in the general election. For one thing, a campaign without a candidate can’t build a big enough war chest to sustain it. Also, a large and active ‘draft Goh’ campaign would split the vote on the right and ensure that the OOP candidate won. [emphasis added] So clearly, if you are going to have a campaign to draft Goh, you will need to do it during the GNP nominating process.
Park Geun-hye is the clear GNP front-runner right now but she has enough enemies among more conservative members of the party that she probably won’t be able to get the nomination without a fight. On the other hand, while they might be able to wound her it seems doubtful, baring some major scandal, that anyone will be able to displace her.
It is during the in-fighting for the GNP nomination that a draft Goh campaign could succeed. What would be needed are some cryptic words from Goh about ‘not seeking’ the nomination and a well-organized campaign to give it to him. If timed right, the campaign could hand the GNP nomination to Goh, who would ‘humbly and reluctantly’ accept the nomination. After five years of Roh Moo-hyun and three of an OOP-controlled Kuk Hoe, the general election should be a cakewalk.
Silly me. It seems that Goh will choose ‘plan C’ and run with a new party. That still doesn’t eliminate the danger of Goh splitting the conservative vote. That is where this bit of intriguing news comes in:
“When the new party sweeps the vote in the Chungcheong region in next year’s regional election, and the Democratic Party does well in its Jeolla provinces, Mr. Goh could be the connection between the two parties, leading to a new political structure,” said a figure involved in the new political party.
That statement seems to me to be a pretty strong indication that a deal is in the works. If the Democrats are really on the comeback trail and they throw their weight behind Goh, then that changes the equation considerably. Both Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun required Saddam Hussain-like electoral support from Jeolla to win. Goh wouldn’t need to pick up a lot of votes in the southwest to make things difficult for the OOP candidate, only about third. That is especially true since the DLP candidate will probably get 5-10% nationwide.
Goh, while being basically conservative (as far as I can tell), is politically nebulous enough that he could appeal to moderates and even some progressives by running a competence-based rather than issue-based campaign. With backing from his new party and the Democrats, I think he would be strong.
20 Comments
i think you’re right that we might start to get some idea of realignment by looking at early defectors. Shin Jung-sik from boseong has been a goh kun fan for some time, but i wouldn’t expect to see many jeolla assemblymen making the same switch. not so early at least. i think it’s better to look at that as an anomaly. however, if noh and the uri party continue to lack leadership on domestic issues (read the economy) then DJ’s old party will have a strong chance of coming back in those provinces.
This election may break the provebial camel’s back and we may see Pres. Rho resigning finally from the post that he held hostage for four years.
The only reason that he got elected in the first place was that GNP’s candidate, Lee HoiChang, was a dirty politician who pretended to be clean. He was a former prosecutor who sent many innocent people to jail while serving under the military regimes. And, he did not send his TWO sons to military service with medical excuse, underweight. This inflamed many who honorable served four years in the compulsary Korean military service. Furthermore, when he asked about his residence which was under somebody else’s name, he would not answer why. More dirty deeds of Mr. Lee are coming out these days such as accepting bribes through his brother.
He also wanted to keep his party chairman post even if he lost the presidential bid. He wanted to have it all. And, keep it all. People liked GNP party but not Mr. Lee. Just another dictator in the making!
That is the only reason Rho became the president. As expected, after gaining the post that he did not deserve, Rho’s actions were terrible. He just was too inexperienced, emotional and full of ideology to be an effective president. And, it showed. His speeches were not that of a stateman but that of adjussee. His policies were frequently reversed creating confusion. His leadership was almost non-existent, even his own party members opposed him.
Many politicians (some from Uri party) are predicting Rho with his approval rating dipping below twenty percent will not finish his presidential term but resign gracefully in near future. It may come right after this election!
Baduk is a riddle wrapped in an enigma and so forth. One day he’s as wrong as wrong can be, and then the next he’s right on target.
President Rho’s recent speech at the UN will be remembered years after as the example of his ineptitude and stupidity. Why did he yap about “hegemony of emperialist nations” at this time of history? Why? How does it help Korea?
Many derided the president for being stuck at 1960s. His level of thinking is just that of 1960’s - rich vs poor, small nation vs empires, etc. Things have progressed from then on, but Rho must have missed them all. He still thinks at the level of 1960s’ Korean college students (BTW he never attended college).
His recent speech at UN does nothing but bring self-gratification to him. It has no other value. Just like an African dictator, he yapped about the abuses by emperialist nations. How does it apply to Korea? And, even if his views were true, how does his speech help Korea? A politician who uses an international prestige for his own enjoyment and advertisement for his oblique ideology does not deserve to be a president. He is forgetting the first rule for being a politician - represent people!
Right on! Go, baduk, go.
So, you like that, huh? Here are more of the same.
America is the number two trader of Korea (China just edged out last year as the number one). However, while China mainly buys production equipments from Korea, America has been number one consumer of Korean products such as Samsung, LG, Hyndai and Kia.
Yet, this left-wing president derides the US by delivering thinly-veiled message aimed at America. How dare him? Furthermore, his speech does not represent the sentiment of Korean people. Korean people want more prosperity which can come through better trade with the US. Only audiences for his type of pro-Communist speech are radical pro-North communists in Korea. The former student activists.
While these darn fools pat Rho’s shoulder and congratulate him on this comeuppance, the majority of Koreans regret that they have voted for this “emperor without clothes”.
His attitude, anti-Americanism, only brings retaliation. Who would buy at the same store if the manager spits at customer’s face? The customers will stay away. Then, the workers in the store will rise up and replace the manager. This is the 21st revolution! The Consumer revolution! More realistic than Commie revolutions in the last century, which only brought pigs(dictators) into power.
Wow, baduk, you’re on a roll. Heck, don’t stop now, give us some more. Better yet, why not combine all that into an editorial to one of the local Korean papers?
Baduk do you have a blog?
If you live anywhere near Philadelphia I’d love to buy you a drink. Or several. Don’t stop the music!
Hey Andy thanks for that post lotsa stuff I hadn’t know or hadn’t thought of.
Uri has to be creamed in this election OR what will happen is that if Goh Kun runs he’ll be running against whoever runs for GNP and that’ll split the vote and give some Uri amateurish candidate much better chances. I predicted long ago that Korea’s next president will be conservative and I’d like to be right
The Chosun has been running some great stuff about all the presidential hopefuls, listing reasons they can’t be elected, ie, the things they’d have to deal with and overcome to get elected. They had some really good stuff on Goh which pissed him off so much that he wrote a rebuttal and on each and every point and sent it to Ohmy which of course ran it with pleasure. Really funny actually, he essentially said “I’m not even a candidate so I don’t know why they’re going after me… but if I was…” and then fought back at Chosun on each argument. Sorta unofficially declared his candidacy, in my opinion.
? ?????§_??§
????(?? )???
????/??/??
?????Ώ??Ώ????
??????§_??§ ?Ύ??Ύ??½Ό?½??½?
??? (/???????Ύ??Ύ??½Ό?½??½?
??? /??/??
?????Ώ??Ώ????
???§_??§
.(?΄??`)??????
???|??|??
.????Ώ??Ώ?|
Oranckay,
There is certainly possible that a Goh candidacy will split the conservatives the way the two Kims split the anti-Roh Tae-woo vote in 1987(?). In fact, when I was wildly speculating on a Goh candidacy last year, it was premised on his being drafted by GNP members who are not satisfied with Park Geun-hye.
In fact, I think I’ll go back and update the post to include that information.
Kimchiboys,
WTH?
My own prediction (in February) was that Goh would probably not be running, but that if he was it would certainly not be with the GNP because there’s just no way the GNP would just hand him the nomination. Not because of the way it attacked him when he sought confirmation as Roh’s PM, mind you, but because there are just too many people in the GNP who want to run and there’s no way they would just give that up. Goh has no factional backers in the GNP. PGH barely does too, and she was only called in to be chairwoman after the impeachment evilness backfired and they were hurting going into the last general election. Two-time loser Lee Hoi Chang does better than PGH in surveys of opinion in PGH’s own district, and I don’t think anyone in the GNP have ever been “satisfied” with her though she has managed to strengthen her position - I’d thought they’d have done away with her by now.
I can’t imagine anyone in Uri who would do well against Goh because as Andy says he’d make a strong candidate, but if he’s running against Lee Myung Bak I might get naturalized and run for Uri’s nomination myself.
He still thinks at the level of 1960s? Korean college students (BTW he never attended college).
I thought he was a lawyer?
Ray,
Rho was just a high school graduate. He did self-study and passed the bar exam. I guess he is good at memorizing facts. But, other than that, he has no idea about economics, military(he was juat an enlisted), world events, protocols and history. Just full of Communist ideologies and propaganda. Never set foot outside Korea till he became the president.
These lack of experience, which is shared by his inner circle, cost Korea great deal. The most damge done by these country bumpkins was the loss of close relationship between Korea and the US. These student radicals of 60s just recite Communist manifesto and NK propaganda. Their head is wired like that. Hey, even Chinese communists see the power of market, but not these dumbasses. They are forever stuck in 1960s.
They love to see the US departing from Korea. One country that really helped Korea! Yet, these simpletons want “blood purity” as claimed by NKs, not realizing NK is under China. Their actions will only subjugate entire Korea under Chinese control.
Andy and Oranckay,
I think Park GunHye and Lee MyongBak combination will retake the country from these left-wing nuts. Yesterday, Lee said he would work closely with PGH to bring about changes in Korea. More pragmatic, pro-America, pro-defense and pro-market approach.
As long as they do not fight among themselves about the candidacy for presidency(I think LMB will gracefully bow out and take the secretary of State. You got to love this man!), I think the conservatives will enjoy easy win.
GoGun pretends to be pro-America but he is from Cholla province known as the breeding ground from Korean Commies. He also did not send his son into military service. A crucial weakness. He also has been around too long - a closet full of skeletons.
I do not see any problem at this point. With DJ dying, this history of Korean Commies must end here! Even earlier, if Rho realize what is good for the country and resign.
Lee MyungBak came from a poor family just like many of Rho’s student radicals. Like them, he was active in anti-government demonstration and may have been arrested once.
But, he changed. Instead of scheming how to kill the rich, he decided to work. He joined the Hyundai construction company(the beginning of Hyudai corporation) and worked his way up. His sincerity, devotion to work, fairness to fellow workers and effectiveness are familar to all Koreans.
He is now the mayor of Seoul. He brought changes in Seoul’s traffic system and restored Chunggechun(a water flow through the center of the city). He definitely made Seoul better.
He is a proven leader with very positive record. He is a Christian who hates Communists. He should be the center of next Korean administration.
Yee Myung Park all the way baby!! hehe
Honestly, don’t you guys think that Go-Gun is just too old?
I agree with much of what Baduk (capitalizing your user name, sorry) said, excep this…
…military(he was juat an enlisted)
Why is growing up in poverty such a great thing but being “just” an enlisted man not? (Incidentally, I don’t think that being an enlisted man in any way makes one better qualified to be president, but…)
Baduk,
I think that one reason Jeolla has been a “breeding ground for Korean Commies” is that it was the odd region out during Korea’s rapid economic development under Park Chung-hee. Also, as the home region of the ‘anti-government’ Kim Dae-jung and the site of the Gwangju Massacre, the the people of region have not been comfortable supporting the GNP. I think that a Goh candidacy and party realignment would give a home to moderate and conservative voters in Jeolla.
Juggertha,
Yes, I think that Goh is too old, but if I think that most Koreans would prefer an old goat like Goh to either PGH or ‘Vlad’ Chung Dong-young.
Gihyeon,
I didn’t mean that growing up in poverty was a great thing. It is rather a great obstacle that these men have overcome.
Enlisted soldiers usually do not have a big picture. Nor do they gain experiences in planning and executing a wide scale manuevers. To lead a nation, this command experience in a large scale is absolute necessity and high-ranking officers(generals) or big corporation executives have this experience. They usually make a better president, in my opinion, than lawyers or college professors.
Andy,
The Cholla “republic” voted 95% Uri party in the last election. This is dangerous regionalism! Some Koreans start looking at Cholla people as separate entities from the rest of Koreans. These selfish people band together and dictate the rest of Korea. In this administration, most important posts are held by Cholla natives. The hate toward these people are growing every day.