The Marmot’s Hole

Almost a year ago I did a post at my blog on former prime minister Goh Kun. I had this to say about rumors that he might be in the running for president in the 2007 elections: “When Goh Kun indicates that he doesn’t want the job, maybe, just maybe, he really doesn’t want the job.”

Perhaps I spoke too soon. Goh tested the political waters yesterday by visiting a symposium on the creation of a new Chungcheong-based party:

Former Prime Minister Goh Kun, considered a hidden dragon in Korean politics, heightened his profile yesterday when he appeared at a political gathering for the first time since his resignation from the cabinet last year.
Mr. Goh attended a symposium for the foundation of the People First Academy, a think-tank for the establishment of a new party rooted in the Chungcheong provinces. The Governor of South Chungcheong province, Sim Dae-pyung, is leading the push for the new party, which he publicly announced at the symposium.
“I’m here as a friend of the governor, to congratulate his new party,” Mr. Goh said. “I’ve declined interview offers since I resigned.”

Sim seems to have a pretty realistic plan for getting his new group into the upper ranks of Korean politics:

“When the new party sweeps the vote in the Chungcheong region in next year’s regional election, and the Democratic Party does well in its Jeolla provinces, Mr. Goh could be the connection between the two parties, leading to a new political structure,” said a figure involved in the new political party.

You will very rarely hear a party leader so succinctly lay out how they plan to achieve power. The first phase (winning in local elections next year in Chungcheon) is certainly doable. The conservative Chungcheong-based United Liberal Democrats are basically finished as a major party. OOP (Uri) blew its wad in Chungcheong once it settled on a final resting place for the semi-capital move (as last spring’s by-elections showed). That leaves an opening for a new party.

From there, they would use the allure of a Goh candidacy to get the newly resurgent Jeolla-based Democratic Party on board for a unified ticket. It could work.

The biggest roadblock I see in the plan is that they might become victims of their own success. If this new party shuts the OOP down in Chungcheong while the Democrats dominate in Jeolla, the OOP could very well melt down well before the 2008 elections. If that happens then the Democrats might decide that they are strong enough to field their own candidate. This development certainly bears watching.