By SHELTON BUMGARNER
Marmot’s Hole Guest Blogger
The American magazine Newsweek has a pretty good summary of where things stand currently between the DPRK, the ROK and everybody else.
Aug. 29, 2005 issue - This is an extraordinary moment in the relationship between the two Koreas. Last week, for the first time since 1945, North and South Koreans jointly commemorated their liberation from Japanese colonizers at the end of World War II in Seoul. The North Korean delegation visited the South Korean Parliament, another first. The two countries also staged a joint football match where 50,000 spectators chanted, “Unified Korea, Unified Korea.” The lovefest doesn’t stop there. Trade is reaching new heights. Cooperation across the demilitarized zone is proceeding at dizzying speed.
It does contain this ominous sounding bit of prose, though:
…Whatever their public pronouncements, meanwhile, many American officials doubt that Kim will ever give up his nukes??meaning that regime change is the only way out.
Be sure to read the rest on your own.
47 Comments
Considering the highly probably loss of the current status quo, most Koreans would not be in favor of anything worse. The only people that would gain would be North Koreans, thus there is no unification to occur any time soon. It is more a matter of certain idiots bending over backwards to look the other way instead of considering the tremendous crimes of North Korea’s leadership. I suppose this means that the media will focus upon the great “crimes” of Park Chung Hee, Chun Doo Wan, etc., instead of Kim Il Sung, et al. as well as turning all attention to the *evil* foreign intervention in Korea that is still taking place to this day (damn Morning Star people!) It really does take an enormous, Korean “invisible hand” to revise history and fact in such a manner.
Also read the Chosun Ilbo’s report on the costs of unification, per Standard and Poor’s How much would it be? I laughed in appreciation of Mr. Wyss’s sense of humor when Mr. Wyss (Standard and Poor’s) said:
Wyss said if Seoul ran out of money it would be a good idea to borrow from Japan, where interest rates are low. . . Short of a resolution of the nuclear dispute, Seoul can only hope to raise its credit rating if it accelerates change such as improving the health of Korean financial firms and reducing household debt, he added.
I imagine such a statement would cause many of these miniture Korean statesmen to balk at turning to the Japanese to help subsidize Korea, especially after having vilified them so much.
You left out th important quotes IMO.
“…’Minister Chung’s remarks undermine an already shaky South Korea-U.S. alliance,’ says Ryoo Kihl Jae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. ‘The North will try to take advantage of the situation in the Six-Party Talks.’ The North’s delegation certainly leapt to the occasion during its visit to Seoul. At a solidarity rally involving workers from both countries, Northerners shouted that ‘U.S. troops object to unification,” while Southerners chanted, ‘Let’s kick out all U.S. troops and achieve unification through our own efforts.’….
…Many South Koreans tell pollsters they feel more threatened by American hegemony than by the North’s nukes. ‘South Korea’s mainstream has changed from an anti-Pyongyang to a pro-Pyongyang group,’ says Ryoo. ‘The two Koreas have become closer because the South, not the North, has changed.’ That in turn has stiffened Washington’s position. ‘The U.S. basically doesn’t trust South Korea,’ says Peter Hayes…
…a senior North Korean official accuses China of backsliding under U.S. pressure. His take on Seoul is striking: ‘I was surprised to learn how favorable South Korea is towards us,’ he says. ‘South Korea has begun to say, ‘We don’t need the U.S. any more. We will solve the problems on our own’.”
Yes. I did.
I did mention that you should check it out yourself — I, like The Marmot, have a MSM background so I want the evil old printasouraus to keep on truckin, even if it means not always giving you every juicy quote from a story.
All doggy sounds(???????). Most Koreans do support the U.S. Only f***ing commies love KJI.
Rho got two years left. When his party suffer heavy loss at the poll(this is very certain), there will be no commies in the SK.
You will see the lightening change in Korea’s politics. It will be more pronounced than the change seen when Bush replaced Clinton.
Koreans do not love KJI.
If the U.S. leaves SK, she will be leaving over fifty years of friendship. Just remember who fought side-by-side in VietNam? Korean troops. Who is helping the U.S. effort in Iraq right now? Korean troops!
Do not betray Koreans, just because it is convenient to do so. MacArthur statue still stands at Incheon harbor despite some f***ing commies shouting againt it.
Alway balance your opionions with reality, not with emotion.
Alway balance your opionions with reality, not with emotion.
This is good advice for Koreans, my friend.
As far as most Koreans supporting the U.S. over North Korea, I doubt it. Do you not know the saying, “???????? ????????”? I have seen nothing to indicate that the majority of Koreans will value anything higher than ethnic ties.
There’s a real stubbornness among a wide swathe of Koreans–in academia, politics, media–about accepting the “reality” that is N. Korea. Asia Times had another great article by Andrei Lankov about this:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GH18Dg02.html
First, the term “love-fest” has no business in a news article unless it is a direct quote from some important player, and then only if it is connected to some issue. It is strong, loose language like this that has turned journalism into crap. It might make the story more enjoyable for the reader, but it is editorial material, not news.
Next — I wish they would provide a definition for “trade” and “exchange” and “cooperation.”
The cooperation, it seems to me, is hugely a matter of North Korea allowing South Korea to pump in material resources. Wow. A really difficult stretch for it. Yes. It allows some Korean tourists a very limited chance to see an area or two of North Korea while going out of its way to keep most of the North Koreans away from them. It allows South Korean companies to set up factories (and especially infrastructure for an industrial city) in Kaesong, which I seem to remember is a North Korean ghost town.
How much stuff is flowing South other than some top North Korean regime people and hand picked North Koreans whose ass the South can enjoy kissing?
It might allow this to fit under the definition of “cooperation” but with an eyebrow raised. Trade - it is not — unless there is a lot more North Korean product and other business elements heading south than I know about.
Next, I find myself somewhat overlapping with both points of view of South Korea in relation to the North.
I don’t agree that it is just a small minority of South Koreans that want to pretend they believe the North is their solid brother.
Where I fall in the middle revolves around the idea of arguments of convience.
Only a minority of Koreans, a small minority, really are leftists in the 1930s US mode. Only a few really believe Kim Il Sung has been dishonestly defamed and truly want USFK out.
But, a majority, possibly only a slight majority, but an increasing majority, want to pretend they believe the US is the problem and the North is their kin. It is clearly a majority of South Korean society that doesn’t want to examine both the contemporary nature of the North Korean state and its past.
In short, it makes a majority of South Koreans “feel good” about themselves and South Korean society to go through a process of extending a hand of favorable consideration at their long time enemy while slapping the long time ally in the face. Standing up to the United States has long been a boon to South Korean pride. Now, with the North so weak, it also makes them feel better to drop the highly negative discourse against the North from the authoritarian regime past and in the South’s mature democracy head in the exact opposite direction — revel in saying North Korea is not horrible, is much better than they ever imagined before, and that the best thing the South can do is embrace it in positive vibes.
What makes this an argument of covinence is the same thing that has made protesting the US-SK alliance, even violently, easy to do. The average Korean doesn’t believe USFK will leave. Even today when the shock of the move south of the Han and taking 5,000 GIs out of country has set in, they still really don’t believe the US will leave. They might be less certain about it than they were in 2000 when the first explosion of love for the North kick started this phenomenon in South Korean society, but the believe it is still true enough to vote in the polls as they do and shout the slogans they do or even write the news articles they do.
If USFK started packing all its bags, you would hear a different story, but until we look like we are approaching that day, the trend in dressing up the North and dressing down the US-SK alliance will continue.
I don??t agree that it is just a small minority of South Koreans that want to pretend they believe the North is their solid brother.Well, what is a “solid brother”? South Koreans even before the so-called “love fest” were taught that North Korea’s government was the epitome of evil but that Northerners were their kinfolk.
But if you just mean North Korea as a national entity being a long lost brother, I personally don’t know anyone who has lost a direct relative or a very close relative who thinks that way. It’s not that hard to get people whose families merely suffered hardship during the War to say, well, maybe we should start changing our attitude, but if you grew up on stories that your grandfather, grandmother, uncle, aunt, mom, dad, or sibling was rounded up and summarily killed by North Koreans or died in battles against them or led by them, it’s a different ballgame altogether.
Unlike Japan, North Korea is entirely unrepentant, and so attitudes of reconciliation among South Koreans can go only so far, even for those who are are not that old. If you know someone killed your grandfather, can you forgive them when they deny responsibility for it?
Yeah, the Western press makes a big deal about Roh’s kowtowing to Pyongyang, but these things fly against the sensibilities of millions of ROK citizens. I know a few left-leaners who think Roh and Chung and their government have really gone too far this time with the 60th anniversary festivities.
USINK:
Just the facts, m’am; just the facts.
Acoording to KITA, the Korean International Trade Association, as reported in today’s Korea Lies [
foreigner 
Posted August 22, 2005 at 5:00 pm | Permalink
I’m honestly not Andrei Lankov’s press agent, but his Asia Times article:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GH04Dg03.html
echoes what Sperwer said–the norks do not trade, they take, take, take, and that’s “juche.”
I can’t wait for Chung Dong Young’s rendition of “That’s Juche” a la Dean Martin’s version of “That’s Amore”
Maybe he Roh and KJI can get toigether their own “Rat Pack”
People are scared off by the costs of reunification. Do they ever talk about the economic gains? Just as the money will need to come from somewhere, it will go somehwere too. The money just does not disappear. Most likely it will go to South Korean companies (as well as to the people of both North and South).I don’t know how much that is discussed, but I have heard it discussed a few times, thought not as much now as during the Kim Daejung administration and earlier.
But I think the “scared off by” the costs of reunification is a foreign view of the situation that would more accurately be described as “scared of” the costs of reunification. The difference being that the former has you trying to avoid it, while the latter has you knowing that you’re going to have to deal with it so you do what you can to soften the blow.
Even though most everyone in Korea is anxious about the costs of reunification (and Shenzhen is right that they should also be looking at the potential benefit), I don’t know anyone who doesn’t think that reunification will eventually happen. This is, I think, one of the dismissed reasons why so many support Sunshine Policy: it’s going to happen, and it’s going to happen whether South Korea engages or not, but by engaging North Korea and by putting in infrastructure now, it will save on greater costs of doing the same later.
I’m not saying I support this view or not, but if you’re planning for post-reunification, which would you rather have, northern provinces connected to the grid or not connected to the electrical grid, cities up north connected to the south’s transportation system, etc.
East Germany collapsed with little warning. North Korea, when and if it does, may very well do so because of something happening in North Korea or China, something which no one will really see coming enough to plan for. Engineering a North Korean collapse by withholding any investment hasn’t worked for the South, so as long as China keeps supporting the North, why would it work now? At least setting things up in the North now softens the blow of reunification later.
Sperwer,
Thanks for digging up the info.
“along with goods processed in NK on a commission basis for SK manufacturers….According to Foggy Bottom, in 2004 most of the value of NORK exports to SK consisted of such commission income.”
I think that is a big item too. I would toss that item out to be dealt with seperately. I would’t count products made by South Korean companies with North Korean labor. Those good would be in the South Korean economy anyway, and it would seem to me that is just a case of the North getting hard currency through what their workers make at South Korean factories.
“Trade will occur with a regime change and reunification.”
I don’t actually mind that trade isn’t equal or is one sided. Since South Korea has decided that collapse is to be avoided at all costs, it makes sense for them to give and give and not worry about getting back — they are getting back in a way — they are getting to push off a collapse.
But, what irritates me is how some in academia and a bunch in influencial circles in South Korea will label South Korea’s shipping of resources up North “trade” and then push toward a conclusion that North Korea is “opening up” or taking “great strides” to reach out to the South.
They should call it what it is — a one way street - for the most part.
“At least setting things up in the North now softens the blow of reunification later.”
It could work that way, or it could be like I think Flying Yangban has said often —
—- that efforts to strengthen North Korea actually work toward anti-unification.
For the first idea to work out, a couple of things could happen —- as the present North Korean regime power begin to die out, newer generations, effected by whatever knowledge of South Korea’s efforts to help the North gets filtered down in Norht Korean society, decide they will reach out and try to settle difference with the South and unify. — That SK’s current approach leads to a generational shift in thinking, and when the older generation dies, unification becomes desired on both sides of the DMZ.
Or, South Korea’s efforts somehow get filtered down to the average North Korea and they decide to revolt.
Being a pessimist, I lean much further to the idea that SK’s efforts to push NK away from collapse stengthens the regime, and strengthen the regime will only prolong its hold on the people — giving it the space to suppression opposition better and help them do as they have done successfully for decades —- keep information about the outside world from the North Korean people.
And in short, without that information, it is difficult for me to picture how North Korean society would get up enough steam to topple the regime, and without that kind of grassroots upswing, I would think it would be hard for new generations of regime leaders to make a decision to buck the system. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t…
Another factor against any of what people call the “technocrats” is the same fear that lies deep in Kim Jong Il and the conservatives’ hearts — fear that when unification does come, the North Korean people are going to string them up from lampposts.
I think propping up North Korea will delay unification rather than helping set it up.
amen… pushing towards reunification in the way that it’s currently being done is short-sighted and impetuous (as most political movements here tend to be). however, the way that it’s being done is the rub.
setting up the infrastructure for manufacturing plants in NK and using the labor there, coupled with some sort of tax scheme paid into SK’s pension system is being looked at as one way to avert the aging society crisis sure to hit hard here all too soon. i don’t think it’s a bad idea to look at all options, but NK will need to be controlled with an iron fist (read the ability to cut their power from SK completely when the power grid is in place).
i vaguely remember a hyundai (?) scheme to ship NK laborers to vietnam to work cheaply for SK manufacturing companies under guard by NK soldiers. if i recall correctly, it was for shoe manufacturing a few years ago.
although an obviously wacky scheme, the tightly controlled workforce is an inevitability if there is to be any kind of stability.
Kushibo, I totally agree with your projection of Korean unification. It will come totally unexpected. And, totally from outside influence. Like Bush bombing PyongYang.
Shenzhen Whitey, you do not understand the real cost of unification. The north Korean people. Do you think they will happily turn into wonderful workforce and work for a minimum wage? Think again.
These are military-trained, hard-core, share-and-share-alike men. Men who will not think twice about killing whom they conceived to be a capitalist pig. When NK collapse, they will form a mob as it happened in Russia. These former military officers will control entire NK and even entire Korea if I am correct.
How do you think General Chun Do Whan grabbed the Korean government? Never underestimate the power of people who form a mob. They kill. They rule.
Korea might have an appearance of democracy, but it will be run by these former NK military officers. Like it is going on in Russia.
When NK opens up, SK basically have to do what Japan did to Korea at the early 20th century when it ate up Korea. Strong police force, Segregation and Enslavement.
First, you strike fear into these inhabitants that any who disobey the occupation force (Japanese policemen) will die. To show this, policemen roamed the streets and kicked, punched and arrested any who even looked at them. Kill if necessary.
Second, Japan segregated the school, bank, entertainment and companies from Japanese ones and Korean ones. Like deep South. There has to be SK children schools and NK schools. All teachers will be from SK. NK has to learn how to obey SK system. Beat the heck out of any who disobey. It takes time.
Third, alway downplay anything NK. Have them respect and follow SK ways. Eradicate anything that has to do with NK history. Brainwash them into lust after SK ways.
These steps, which may seem archaic and totalitarian, are absolutely necessary. If these are not done properly, entire Korea will move backward to poverty and confusion.
Are SK up to this momentous task? I think not. Koreans are dumb. Too sentimental.
If I were South Korea, I would strongly consider an opposite path than it has currently decided to take. I’d seek to snuggle as closely to the US and Japan as I could get, and I’d try to get as close to China as possible, but I would work the the US and J. to try and strangle North Korea to death. I’d do my best to talk China into going along.
I would take this risk (from the collapse) in order to approach my primary objective — which would be to get as much committment to massive, and I mean M-assive, economic and material assistance when the North did collapse.
It would be a hard road to follow due to the amount of pain North Korea could inflict when it implodes. We have no idea if North Korea would refrain from using all its WMDs if the regime began to collapse. It is the kind of regime that would kill millions for spite.
But, the only way South Korea is going to be secure is with the North gone. The only way, in the foreseeable future, we can imagine unification is from collapse.
And by far the only real chance South Korea has upon unification is for massive amounts of money and material pumped in from around the world.
I think it is far from a given that the nations of ASEAN or the OECD or the EU or the US or Japan are going to make rebuilding North Korea anything close to a priority like it might need to be for South Korea to not be badly damaged by unification when it comes. And I don’t think I would look to China for massive help either.
Right now, South Korea is doing the opposite of what I want. They are purposefully sticking their thumb in the American eye — by far the richest and most allied nation that could help South Korea on unification when it comes. They are also still fully committed to keeping Japan at arm’s length. And I would even think South Korea’s wishywashy attitude toward the North’s nukes probably makes the EU scratch its head a little.
Right now, if things keep going as they are, South Korea had been pray they and China can keep the North alive. Because if they fail, I don’t believe they will get but an inadequate amount of help rebuilding the North that they could if they worked the diplomacy differently.
Sperwer, Fascinating comment. Thanks for compiling all that information.
I don??t have any evidence at hand, but I??ll bet dollars to dimes that SK will never be paid for the Kaesong construction equipment . . . .
Maybe these links will help:
http://www.theeastcarolinian.c.....e54fc76d28
http://www.boston.com/news/wor.....rs?mode=PF
usinkorea, it is not a matter of economics.
Korea, by its historical advancement, should be at where China is at. Or, VietNam. Or, NK. Or, Russia.
SK was lucky.( I believe it is God’s intervention through the use of McArthur). It is an oddity in that region of Asia. Japan received the European influence early on. Therefore, it escaped out of Oriental ignorance and anti-democratic form of society. Korea is more like China. Korea should be earning $1,000 as the national GNP. Instead, it is blessed with $18,000.
The rest of Asia, including China, VietNam, even Russia and Taiwan, still stuck at 19th century someplace. People do not have democratic frame of mind.
When NK collapse and the Unification comes, SK will be pulled back into China frame of mind. Democracy or capitalism will be erased from people’s mind. The whole country will regress back to 19th century. Communism or a form of totalitarian government will emerge. Democracy will disappear like a dew on sunny morning.
Napoleon will emerge. Dictatorship. Totalitarian government. Or, pseudo-democracy like in China or Russia. Mussolini under Hitler? KJI fits the mold.
When the dust settles(after millions of deaths), Korea will be a poor country.
A person being strangled will do anything possible to avoid certain death, grasping anything within reach.
If China, South Korea, Japan, and the United States all successfully conspired to “strangle” the North, they would either find other “sponsors” or they would sell more drugs and eventually, if really threatened with collapse if they couldn’t get hard currency, selling nuclear weapons in part or in whole.
With the US, Japan, and South Korea giving food aid, with China, Japan, and South Korea engaging the North economically, North Korea knows that on balance it would be an unnecessary risk to sell a nuke, because that would mean certain and violent destruction if it were used by someone else.
But if it were in a corner anyway, faced with certain death if it didn’t do anything, maybe the temptation to try to surreptitiously sell a nuke or nuke parts would reach the threshold where this is a likelihood, not a hypothetical.
Strangling is not the answer, because it sets you up to be struck in the temple by that shard of glass or the sharp rock that is lying within the radius of the intended victim’s flailing grasp. Sure, you may kill him, but he’s going to give you an ugly, ugly scar.
“Therefore, it escaped out of Oriental ignorance and anti-democratic form of society.”
I agree with part of your main point — that Japan picked a different path from China and Korea when the encroachment of the West (and Western thought) began to get hot. Japan embraced the new, but I would also say it kept the old too - specifically in regard to the comment about democracy. Japan was a totalitarian state (in a different mold from pre-modern China and more along the lines of Germany and Italy), but it was two atomic bombs that brought the war to an end and occupation by the conquering US forces that shook Japan into democracy. They did embrace it after that, but it wasn’t strictly by choice.
Also, I’m not so pessimistic about South Korea’s future after unification or partial unification.
I do believe what you outlined is possible. There has been enough ignorance about Juche and real world communism spoken in the last ten years in South Korean society to make me believe it could happen, but I still give South Korea a better chance than that.
In fact, I could more easily picture this —- oddly enough —- South Korea deciding to take a kind of Franklin Roosevelt approach. It would work something like this —
South Korea tells the post-collapse North that the South will be more than happy to unite with them as equals, once the North is closer to an equal.
Until then, until the South along with massive amounts of aid and technical support from around the world can build the North Korean economy and society (including the political society up, the South will keep the DMZ border functional and limit the amount of inner connections the two Korea’s have.
What I mean is, I can picture South Korea telling the North they will have to wait 50 years (or so) before they can really unite with South Korea as in a normal state even if the North Korean regime implodes.
I don’t know if they could manage it technically in such a case, but I can see South Korea mulling it over and giving it a shot if they think they can get away with it.
In the end, however, unless the outside world completely ignores Korea after the collapse, which I don’t think will happen, I don’t think the two Koreas will fall back to a type of society that even matches China today.
To Kushibo,
I’m not really that worried about the selling of a nuke if South Korea and China agreed to cut North Korea off and force a collapse or an opening up. I don’t think it would take long for the North to drop if they did so. I don’t think NK would have the chance to sell the nukes, and I think with those two nations helping, the US could put enough of a strangle hold on Korea to guard against the selling of a nuke, and such moves would also warn off most potential buyers.
Regardless, selling a nuke wouldn’t not substantially alter the North’s sitaution. It would have to make such a thing a habit, and it would also have to raise its drug running and money laundrying to such an extent, if it tried to make up for losing SK and China, that it would invite invasion.
My fear of the strangle idea is the one I think the US (and others) already have in mind when they don’t talk much about increasing sanctions —
that a desperate North Korea will directly attack US forces in South Korea, South Korea as a whole, and/or Japan and US forces in Japan.
I’m more worried about a collapsing NK deciding it should take out as many of its enemies as possible.
USINKOREA wrote:I??m more worried about a collapsing NK deciding it should take out as many of its enemies as possible. That’s the shard of glass within their grasp.
Look at North Korea’s economic stats. The $400 million of trade from South Korea is a mere 1% of their $40 billion economy. With China and Japan it’s a few percentage more. The Pyongyang leadership can survive solely on what happens within North Korea if it came down to that, though I’m sure they’d rather not.
Will the people of North Korea stand up against them? Millions have died from starvation, but they haven’t risen up. What would make them do so now? Escape is the only option. Bleed North Korea dry by allowing the Northerners out.
I don’t have a lot of faith in “strangling” North Korea. It didn’t work in Cuba, Iraq, Myanmar, etc., so why here and now?
And with China’s leadership still ideologically allied with North Korea’s, why would they join such a strangling?
Two-pronged Sunshine is the only way: opening up the doors and the windows to the North, forcing them open if necessary, and carrying a really powerful flashlight to shine on the dark nooks and crannies to expose what Pyongyang doesn’t want anyone to see.
North Korea’s ability to control information, people, and activities erodes exponentially with every bit of outside influence. So far there is actually very little, so it’s easy for North Korea to cordone it off, but the more there is, the less able they’ll be to do it. And then their grip is loosened.
Engagement, yes. Pressure on human rights (on both China and North Korea), yes. Choking them off in the hopes they’ll collapse even though this really doesn’t work in most places and it ends up just leading to dead civlians, no.
I don’t have much faith in the two pronged approach. Maybe the leakage of information will erode the regime’s hold in the end, and I agree with the couple of others here that we probably won’t have much of a clue until it does happen.
But, I would rather see at least the US and Japan work together to cut down on what North Korea gets. The dead civilians are on Kim Jong Il’s head. He could end the suffering of his people tomorrow if he wanted. It would take letting the world in and mostly likely the end of his regime and possibly his own death or imprisonment, but he or the regime could change things over night if they wanted.
I have no faith in the two prong process, because all we are going to get is a stronger North Korea, more capable of defending itself and more capable of threatening others, without the cooresponding light of truth being shown.
In fact, it seems South Korea is a perfect example of this. They have penetrated into North Korea further than any other nation with the possible exception of China (at least these days) but along with this deeper approach into North Korea has come a deliberate burial of the light of truth about it in South Korean society.
If I were really devising strategy to put in play, I would do the first part of what I said — hemming North Korea in as much as possible. Surely not building it up so it can feel more free to act.
Usinkorea, I have no disagreement about flooding North Korea with subversive information (as long as it is true information, because providing disinformation will sow the seeds of distrust and resentment after reunification, and since the truth stands against the Northern regime, there is no reason to use disinformation). But this is a very different thing from “strangling” the North.
In fact, flooding the North with information is precisely why I think that stepped up engagement would eventually work: both of them work against the Northern regime by eroding the ideology and propaganda through which the people are controlled.
Also, I don’t ever think China would go along with the strangling. People are lulled into thinking that our wonderful economic partner China is somehow against the regime in Pyongyang, but they are ideological partners. Even if South Korea, the United States, and Japan (which has substantial economic ties with North Korea) were to end all engagement, China would provide a valuable conduit.
Toppling the North Korean regime will not occur by strangling. It’s useless to whine about South Korean engagement (or Japanese engagement, too, if we were to be fair) and suggest that if Seoul or Tokyo stopped economic ties, and that Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington stopped all food aid, Pyongyang would fold. It’s not going to. It hasn’t for fifty years because it always finds a lifeline.
Maybe Vollersten is right: the way to topple them is to bleed them of their people. A grand scheme for dealing with the refugees has to be reached. Washington has in place the legislation, but it’s time to put it into practice with a grand plan involving China’s acquiescence, Seoul’s experience, Japan’s money and perhaps some other resources, the resources and venues of other countries like Mongolia, the Philippines, etc.
If China cuts oil supply to NK, NK will fold in three months.
Pres. Rho declared this morning that he is against demolishing MacArthur statue in Incheon.
I think he and Minister Chung(Dingbat)DongYoung play the good-cop-bad-cop routine. Chung represents radical commie line and Rho comes in and gives concession.
I hope it was different. In next administration, the right wingers will have one ultra-right Secretary of state, maybe Mr. ChoGabje. And, the next president, Yi Myengbak, will make concessions and steer the country toward the right direction.
We just have to wait two more years.
China is getting so big and powerful. NK will work nicely as the buffer zone. SK has to become ultra-pro-American and form a resistance line with Japan.
Korean unification only leads to Korea becoming a part of China. Like it was before Japan took it.
No engagement with NK. No nothing. No communication whatsoever. Just fogeddabouthem. Just erect a big wall at the DMZ. Then, SK can survive as free people together with Japan and America. Otherwise, all Koreans will become Chinese slaves.
Some ass****s say what’s wrong with becoming a Chinese underling. The answer: China’s GNP is $1000 and Korea’s is $18,000. Imagine what will happen.
NK has nothing to lose by becoming one. And, NK already is. Now, SK has a lot to lose. Houses, cars, lands, wives, daughters… The Japanese had them when they ruled Korea.
Be free. Resist unification. Stay free.
I don’t think North Korea will allow enough in to risk being toppled. It isn’t the South’s or the US’ or any other nation’s choice how far and fast North Korea opens up. That is a crucial point in a discussion of the pros and cons of the current Sunshine regime.
The South and China are content to wait for North Korea to decide what it wants/content to offer X, Y, and Z to Pyongyang and patiently wait to see which parts North Korea accepts and then not press on the things it rejects.
Maybe the North won’t be able to control things as the Soviets weren’t, but I highly doubt it. North Korea doesn’t have the geography the Russians had to put up with, and for that matter, the North hasn’t had the historic cultural ties to European (Western) society that the Russians did pre-Cold War. It was much more difficult for the Soviet’s to control the people and the reform once the nation began to crack.
North Korea has been MUCH better at it than that.
I have no faith in the idea a continuation of what we are currently seeing on all sides will do anything but give the North some strength, insure unification doesn’t come, and leave it a dangerous threat capable of playing everyone else like a piano when it so chooses.
But my head still hurts today, so maybe I’m being too pessimisstic..
The way I see it, China has KJI’s dick. And, China is jerking it anyway she likes.
The case in point. Why do you think suddenly KJI mellowed? China jerked KJI’s dick, which I proposed all along.
The U.S. state department, after long misunderstanding of the situation, found the right man to pressure. And, it is not KJI. The U.S. finally got to the right guy, somebody in the Chinese government.
The U.S. kicked this guy’s butt, as I have long proposed, and this guy pressed KJI’s dick. Finally, KJI is singing a different tune.
This is how things work in the real world.
I don??t think North Korea will allow enough in to risk being toppled.Not on purpose, they won’t.
But that is the nature of engagement, it leads to unforeseen circumstances. When there is only a little, Pyongyang can adeptly control it, but the more there is, the more that ability is eroded.
If they cordone off Kaes??ng and Shin?iju and Najin, and keep cordoning off new areas, eventually they’ve hemmed themselves in. No, the idea of setting aside entire areas of the country where no DPRK citizen can go will not work if they want to keep money flowing in. They will have to make the choice to allow DPRK citizens to come face to face with ROKers, Japanese, maybe even Americans, etc. That will be the next step.
The best analogy I can think of is eating ice cream without getting fat. There’s a point at which the ice cream won’t effect you, but you crave to go much further than that, and you don’t see the effect of the ice cream until it’s too late.
For fifty years, North Korea had no contact with the West and it became hardline and dangerous with no sign of cracking, not to mention a human rights nightmare. What is it about a hardline approach that would change them now?
On the other hand, On the other hand, Western exposure is precisely what worked in heavily controlled China, with its SEZs, East Germany, etc. North Korea cannot control the law of unforeseen circumstances.
“…Western exposure is precisely what worked in heavily controlled China, with its SEZs, East Germany, etc. North Korea cannot control the law of unforeseen circumstances…”.
Kushibo, your arguments for engagement make “rational” sense but I think the will to power is ultimately a fundamentally irrational one. How can it be otherwise, considering the clear historical evidence of the inferiority of the Communist system of North Korea (China too). Dearly bought evidence too, paid for by the death
of millions.
I think that the the North Koreans (and the Chinese too) can maintain heavily totalitarian states in spite of all possible “engagement” undertaken by their neighbors, as long as the Communist ruling elite can find within themselves the will to use the power of the state apparatus to make their potential political opponents bow in fear (or else disappear).
I think history shows that totalitarian states have to maintain iron control until things become intolerable, at which time the facade cracks and then they fall with a thunderclap. A careful systematic dismantling of such a state is the exception.
And the trick for bystanders is to not get caught in falling debris.
i had a lunch with a korean friend the other day. he is quite well mannered guy(for a korean). the place was crowded, and an ajuma waitress made some mistake. he had small chat with her, then let her go.
then he angrily said to me that “she was chinese-korean(??????. allways its so hard to have good service from them. but they are cheap.”
is it different from chinese-koreans and north koreans ?
after the unification, i wonder how ex-rok people would complain at restaurants.??
“They will have to make the choice to allow DPRK citizens to come face to face with ROKers, Japanese, maybe even Americans, etc. That will be the next step.”
I don’t think so. I think it is a matter of geography coupled with what the engagers abroad are more than willing to let North Korea get away with.
NK has already established a level of control - both physical and mental - Stalin and Moa could not have hoped to accomplish. North Korea isn’t as isolated geographically as South Korea, but it is still a minor land area on a peninsula. If North Korea wants to keep the society closed at point X or Y, it will have a much better chance of seeing it work than the Soviets or Chinese did when they started playing with reforms.
And since we know South Korea and China have a “no collapse” primary policy, they will side with North Korean restrictions when NK fears it is losing control.
And a third point that is perhaps equally central –
The Soviets and Chinese really reformed. What set in motion the scale tipping changes in the Soviety Union, and what might eventually tip the scales politically in China, were major government led reforms.
I know I am told constantly by South Korea, and not just one or two sources outside of Korea, the North has been taking those kinds of moves, but I don’t see it that way.
I don’t think they have come remotely close to take definite measures like the USSR and China did fairly early on.
Even when you read all the great hype about NK’s reforms outside of Korea, they speak heavily about “the will to change” tiny minor step X or Y has “proved.”
So, going to the War Cemetray is heralded as a NK being a just a tiny step away from them establishing a great kumbaiya Peace Treaty…….(to illustrate my point with a little exaggeration.)
North Korea’s minor, minor moves are trumpeted far beyond Korea based almost wholly on — their being a sign of what “will come next.”
I’m waiting for that time to come…….Then I’ll believe it…..
I think, USinkorea, you are missing my point, but I don’t have time to elaborate on it.
There was a time, back in the 1980s, when there were no SEZs and then there was one, and then two, then three, and now so many that they don’t even really make the distinction anymore.
Prior to the first SEZ, no one ever imagined how it would turn out in China, and I know very few China experts who predicted the scale that we now see (and I know more than a few China experts, including some who are or have been based in Hong Kong).
North Korea is isolated, but the engagement requires them, bit by bit, to allow outsiders into their country. Right now, it is under control, just like in China back in the early 1980s, but eventually it won’t be if there is engagement. (Also, if your theory is that North Korea has little contact with the outside world, the increasing contact with China is rendering that moot.)
Am I 100% certain it would work? No, not at all. But every model of a reformed or collapsed communist society has involved a heavy dose of engagement by the outside. On the other hand, every model of an entrenched communist regime that survived past the end of the Cold War has involved enduring an effort to isolate them and choke them off.
Where much worse would the people of the PRC have it if Nixon had never traveled there and Carter (?) had never established diplomatic relations? It’s still a less than perfect world we have, but it is not worse because we engaged an oppressive regime with the hope that they might change their ways.
Kushibo:They will have to make the choice to allow DPRK citizens to come face to face with ROKers, Japanese, maybe even Americans, etc. That will be the next step.
It is of course impossible to tell what the actual impact of the Southern tourism to Kumgangsan (DPRK Romanization!) is in the minds of the Northerners, but it cannot be that it stays only within the barbed wires of the mountains. Recently there was a very interesting Kumgangsan travelogue in Hankyoreh21 (registration needed?) by a Southern tourist who’s originally a Northern refugee. (ROK authorities said they made a mistake in letting him travel.) Unshameful quote of my own translation of a snippet for a blog entry on the topic:When asking him [a kind of an overseer] what he’d like to get as a present from the South next time I come back, he requested a laptop computer. I told him that because it costs one month’s salary for an average wage earner, giving laptops as presents is possible only for the rich. “But this one Southern hy?ngnim (”older brother”, South Korean tourism entrepreneur) visiting here often told he makes 50000 dollars a month, and I asked him to bring me a laptop, but I haven’t heard from him since. He must have been only bragging.”
I also remember reading perhaps at DailyNK that Im Su-gyeong’s unauthorized visit to the youth festival in Pyongyang in 1989 and its aftermath made an impact in North Korea, but not like the Northern authorities would have wanted. She was at first hailed as a hero, especially when jailed in the South after her return. The Northern media reported on her even after she was released, but ceased soon of telling anything about her since the news of her living a relatively free life in the South after her conviction of a crime concerning national security was deemed potentially subversive.
I’m not missing the point. I just respectfully disagree with it. I hope you turn out to be right, I I doubt it will work out that way.
The “if” on engagement should not lie with the others but with North Korea, and I believe there is more than enough reason to believe it won’t take the steps necessary and I believe they will/would be successful in stamping out too much leakage if the tiny measures it has taken start going sour for regime control.
The biggest difference between your view and mine, and the reason I keep up the commenting, is in trying to map out how things will/could work based on the China and Soviet example.
I think my point about geography and size is valid.
And I will add here another effort to undercut your idea that North Korea has been moving forward a good bit — especially with the economic zones.
A huge difference is that China has so far been successful with its zones. It has taken REAL reforms to bring in foreign investiment - not handouts.
It’s reforms has also led to it becoming a star economy in the world growth rise.
What has North Korea’s economic zones produced?
The answer to that is one reason I get frustrated hearing people tout the North’s moves as “serious” reform and a sign of a positive future. In effect, North Korea has strangled itself through an inability and unwillingness to follow the China model. It sets up the zones for failure by the leakage-prevention safeguards it surrounds them with.
So, I don’t grow any more confidence when these zones are one of your primary selling points for the idea North Korea has been engaging significantly and pointing to a fact they will engage more in the future, and that will tip the scales.
I am just not that optimistic and I don’t give North Korea as much credit to date than you and a good number of other people looking at the situation do…
Also, one a side note, kind of, I don’t think any connections today between China and North Korea are a refreshing sign either. Even though North Korea was successful in isolating itself more than most any other nation, when the Soviets and Chinese were bankrolling it, the North did have Chinese and Russians moving in and out. Not a free flow of people at all, but I would guess wildly the exchanges were not a heck of lot less than what we see now, and possibly they were much higher — when North Korea felt itself strong.
What has North Korea??s economic zones produced?About as much as China’s first two SEZs at this point in the game.The answer to that is one reason I get frustrated hearing people tout the North??s moves as ??serious?? reform and a sign of a positive future. In effect, North Korea has strangled itself through an inability and unwillingness to follow the China model. It sets up the zones for failure by the leakage-prevention safeguards it surrounds them with.An unwillingness to follow the Chinese model? The Chinese arrested the North Koreans’ hand-picked governor for Shinuiju who had promised the very thing you suggest!
At any rate, I’m focusing less on the economic change than the social change. The SEZs have changed the social fabric of China and how the governing elite deals with its people. That’s something Beijing tried to keep a lid on but eventually realized it couldn’t.
Engagement, even if it is not economic projects but just tourism of Pyongyang, for example, is going to irrevocably change North Korea. A very little bit at first, then more and more. It is a very, very powerful thing.
Demonization and isolation has failed to topple the North. It’s time to kill them with kindness. Just plan on holding your nose for a while.
I would think China and Russia killed them with kindness for about 45 years and look where it got them.
Chinese and Russian citizens in North Korea weren’t walking examples of a free and prosperous West.
Kushibo,
You brought up “Shinuiju incident” and it shows what China wants in regard to NK. China will not let NK be prosperous; China wants NK to be its servant, a satellite nation.
When Korean unification comes, this intention of China will become so very apparent. Chinese domination of Korea will equal that of Japan: cruelties, inhuman conditions, segregation, demolition of Korean culture and language, and land stealing. China had ruled Korea for thousands of years.
Correct. The Soviet Union and China were blood brothers (especially the Chinese) in despotic communism with the North Korean regime, and they were not given free reign, but managed to keep a 45 year relationship in which the regime in Pyongyang ran the country as it saw fit.
I don’t see the gifts and goodwill flowing from the industrial democracies leading to the regime giving access to those nations it didn’t give to its communist friends.
Of course, the Russians and Chinese were not pushing for democratic capitalist reforms.
But then again, nobody is today either…..
Paul H. wrote:My point is that I think both countries (ROC and ROK) presume the patience and resources of the US to come to their aid is infinite. A most convenient posture for the politicians of both countries to assume, since it provides them with free disaster insurance.I do understand the frustration you’re feeling, but in both Seoul’s and Taipei’s case, I think they really believe that engaging the enemy diplomatically and economically is making the prospect of war less likely, which would keep their own troops and U.S. troops more out of harm’s way.
After all, it’s not just U.S. lives and materiel that would be destroyed, but the homes, families, and societies of these decision-makers in Taiwan and in South Korea. I don’t think they would be doing what they’re doing if they really thought it were increasing risk of confrontation (whether they’re right or not is a different matter).
By the way, Paul, I’m glad you did bring up the Taiwanese, who are following a path not at all unlike that followed by Roh, yet are getting considerably less flak for it (maybe because they’re engaging the same threatening communist dictatorship that the U.S. is).Well, maybe it will indeed continue ??infinitely?? into the future. Let??s hope Iraq doesn??t continue to tie down US resources ??infinitely?? as well, and that the high cost of oil doesn??t lead to a US recession just as all the baby boomers begin to retire and the enormous US budget deficits and consequent national debt begins to accelerate even faster.I really hope it doesn’t turn out that way.
Pres. Rho said this morning,
?? ????????? ?????????? ????, “????????? ??????? ????? ?????????? ???? ????????????? ????, ??? ???? ?????? ????????? ????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ???????? ???? ??????????????? ????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ??”???????? ????????.
Anti-Americanism, that all responsibility rests with the U.S. and all problems will be solved if we resist the U.S., is not practical and will fail.
? ????????? ???? “???????????? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ????????????????? ?????( ?????? ?????????????? ?????????? ???? ???????? ????????? ???? ???????????”?? ????????.
For the future of two Koreas and the security of the region, it is advantageous for Korea to cooperate with the U.S.
He finally realized that the majority of Koreans want a better relation with the U.S. He cannot gain support for his Anti-American posture any longer. So, he started to sing a different tune. He is against demolishing the MacArthur statue and now he stresses more cooperation between SK and the U.S.
Baduk, he’s listening to you!
Kushibo,
We are just small waves in the pond. However, even a big Tsunami arises from small waves all moving in one direction. You and I are influencing a handful of people, but when they influence others and so on and on, Watch out. Dynomite(JJ in the “Good Times”)!
I read the transcript of Pres. Rho’s conversation with people last night on MBC TV. I have to admit that his point of view(moderate and cooperative) is worth listening to. And, he did come out and declared the anti-American view to be not practical. He did explain his views well.
Maybe I was too harsh on the president. He did seem reasonable in many topics: economy, realestate, government policies, North-South relationship, regionalism, and the role of the president.
He, however, still leans too much to the left. Some of his people do as well. I wish he were more on the right.
Kushibo:
“…I??m glad you did bring up the Taiwanese, who are following a path not at all unlike that followed by Roh, yet are getting considerably less flak for it…”
Well, if it was up to me I’d be putting a lot more pressure on Taiwan to purchase the needed weapons. But, the difference in emphasis put on the similar ROC and ROK postures is not at all surprising, considering that there are zero total US military forces on Taiwan ever since 1979 (though before that date I think there were only some US advisors and reconnaissance acft. Pretty sure that the ROC has never had major US Army/Air Force combat formations on its soil unlike ROK).
A posture I’d like to see the US duplicate vs a vs. ROK as you well know. Should improve remarkably the clarity of the political thought process in some folks.
I don’t think there is even a US military attache in Taiwan (no “embassy” to have one if I’m not mistaken, I guess the US has an “interests” section of less than formal diplomatic status in ROC (?)).
The US military isn’t even allowed to do any staff planning for “contingencies” with the ROC military anymore! (Source, front page WSJ article on ROC -PRC potential military confrontation in 2001, after the US recon plane was forced to land on Hainan island after it was bumped by the Chinese jet (April? if I remember correctly)).
Now that’s definitely carrying it too far, you’re right to point out US administration hypocrisy with its stance towards PRC vs that towards DPRK.
But, it’s a hypocrisy they’ve shared with all their predecessors…