Comments on: Regime change and its limits: Foreign Affairs http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/08/15/regime-change-and-its-limits-foreign-affairs/ Korea... in Blog Format Thu, 4 Dec 2008 02:19:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Shelton Bumgarner http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/08/15/regime-change-and-its-limits-foreign-affairs/#comment-21596 Shelton Bumgarner Wed, 17 Aug 2005 08:33:36 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1916#comment-21596 Something troubles me about the continued belief that there could never, ever be renewed military conflict here. I can't quite put my finger on it, but...I don't know...just because something makes no sense and logically should never happen, hasn't stopped dumbassed stuff from happening before. (Not that I honestly believe or hope anything other than peaceful unfication will happen -- it's just sometimes A Superpower Has To Do What a Superpower Has To Do.) Just ask (among other people) the French in 1940, the Germans in '42-'43 and the Americans in '62 and '64-'73. Smart people sometimes do really stupid things when caught up in the moment. The same dynamic that almost caused WWIII in 1962 could happen here under the right conditions. May God have mercy on all our souls (and Seoul) if that should happen. Something troubles me about the continued belief that there could never, ever be renewed military conflict here.

I can’t quite put my finger on it, but…I don’t know…just because something makes no sense and logically should never happen, hasn’t stopped dumbassed stuff from happening before. (Not that I honestly believe or hope anything other than peaceful unfication will happen — it’s just sometimes A Superpower Has To Do What a Superpower Has To Do.)

Just ask (among other people) the French in 1940, the Germans in ‘42-’43 and the Americans in ‘62 and ‘64-’73.

Smart people sometimes do really stupid things when caught up in the moment. The same dynamic that almost caused WWIII in 1962 could happen here under the right conditions. May God have mercy on all our souls (and Seoul) if that should happen.

]]> By: Janus http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/08/15/regime-change-and-its-limits-foreign-affairs/#comment-21595 Janus Tue, 16 Aug 2005 20:53:38 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1916#comment-21595 I love how Germany's idiot-in-chief still insisted that the best way to get Iran to act is to take the use of force "off the table" I love how Germany’s idiot-in-chief still insisted that the best way to get Iran to act is to take the use of force “off the table”

]]> By: lirelou http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/08/15/regime-change-and-its-limits-foreign-affairs/#comment-21594 lirelou Tue, 16 Aug 2005 17:32:12 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1916#comment-21594 Amen to usinkorea. In effect, whether the Administration likes it or not,we are wedded to the cold war policy of "containment" with North Korea by the very nature of the U.N. Command structure and mission. So beyond the simple fact that the U.S. armed forces have a very great deal on their plates at present, we would still have to adhere to the "maintain the Armistice" language of the U.N.C. mission. Amen to usinkorea. In effect, whether the Administration likes it or not,we are wedded to the cold war policy of “containment” with North Korea by the very nature of the U.N. Command structure and mission. So beyond the simple fact that the U.S. armed forces have a very great deal on their plates at present, we would still have to adhere to the “maintain the Armistice” language of the U.N.C. mission.

]]> By: usinkorea http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/08/15/regime-change-and-its-limits-foreign-affairs/#comment-21593 usinkorea Tue, 16 Aug 2005 08:32:36 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1916#comment-21593 Threat of force doesn't work unless the other side believes you will/can do it. Iran might have a reason to worry, but North Korea should have had enough reason so far to be fairly confident the US will not use force against it unless the North significantly takes more steps in the wrong direction. Sanctions won't work much on North Korea either. They have limited their exposure, plus, we'll never get China and South Korea on board enough to make any sanctions sting enough. With those two legs of the tripod kicked out, the whole thing collapses. There are only two choices --- give in and give North Korea X amount of resources for a limited set of Y compliances. Or, seek to contain it as much as possible. Threat of force doesn’t work unless the other side believes you will/can do it. Iran might have a reason to worry, but North Korea should have had enough reason so far to be fairly confident the US will not use force against it unless the North significantly takes more steps in the wrong direction.

Sanctions won’t work much on North Korea either. They have limited their exposure, plus, we’ll never get China and South Korea on board enough to make any sanctions sting enough.

With those two legs of the tripod kicked out, the whole thing collapses.

There are only two choices — give in and give North Korea X amount of resources for a limited set of Y compliances. Or, seek to contain it as much as possible.

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