A reader was kind enough to email me a piece by Richard Haass in Foreign Affairs on regime change and its limits, dealing with in particular Iran and North Korea. Just to give you an idea of what we’re talking about:
So far, the Bush administration has shown it would like to resolve its problems with North Korea and Iran the same way it did with Iraq: through regime change. It is easy to see why. But the strategy is unlikely to work, at least not quickly enough. A much broader approach — involving talks, sanctions, and the threat of force — is needed.
Read on, comrades.
4 Comments
Threat of force doesn’t work unless the other side believes you will/can do it. Iran might have a reason to worry, but North Korea should have had enough reason so far to be fairly confident the US will not use force against it unless the North significantly takes more steps in the wrong direction.
Sanctions won’t work much on North Korea either. They have limited their exposure, plus, we’ll never get China and South Korea on board enough to make any sanctions sting enough.
With those two legs of the tripod kicked out, the whole thing collapses.
There are only two choices — give in and give North Korea X amount of resources for a limited set of Y compliances. Or, seek to contain it as much as possible.
Amen to usinkorea. In effect, whether the Administration likes it or not,we are wedded to the cold war policy of “containment” with North Korea by the very nature of the U.N. Command structure and mission. So beyond the simple fact that the U.S. armed forces have a very great deal on their plates at present, we would still have to adhere to the “maintain the Armistice” language of the U.N.C. mission.
I love how Germany’s idiot-in-chief still insisted that the best way to get Iran to act is to take the use of force “off the table”
Something troubles me about the continued belief that there could never, ever be renewed military conflict here.
I can’t quite put my finger on it, but…I don’t know…just because something makes no sense and logically should never happen, hasn’t stopped dumbassed stuff from happening before. (Not that I honestly believe or hope anything other than peaceful unfication will happen — it’s just sometimes A Superpower Has To Do What a Superpower Has To Do.)
Just ask (among other people) the French in 1940, the Germans in ‘42-’43 and the Americans in ‘62 and ‘64-’73.
Smart people sometimes do really stupid things when caught up in the moment. The same dynamic that almost caused WWIII in 1962 could happen here under the right conditions. May God have mercy on all our souls (and Seoul) if that should happen.