Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, chief U.S. negotiator for the six-party talks, apparently likes the latest Chinese draft joint statement, which is reportedly a six-article document:
Details of the new text were not made public but Hill confirmed that it contains a mention of two disputed issues: the problem of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) program and peaceful use of atomic energy.
South Korean sources close to the talks said that the text is made up of six points which call for, among other things, dismantlement of the North’s nuclear weapons program and its verification in return for corresponding measures by the five other partners.
The corresponding measures include the provision of a security guarantee and electricity and fuel oil aid to the impoverished North simultaneously or in parallel with the North’s compliance with its agreement to scrap its nuclear program, they said.
The draft has reportedly been sent to Washington for approval. Hill told Yonhap that Washington should be “fine” with the draft, although I’ll believe that when I see it. Anyway, even if the document gets signed, it appears much is going to be left to follow-up discussions, so while the fourth round of six-party talks might be approaching an end, the process, so to speak, is just beginning.
Should be fun.
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6 Comments
Follow-up discussions?
I fear the devil will be in the details…
I entirely agree with you on the view that this talks is just a beginning. The most important result will be - if the draft is signed by all sides - that we can comment something other than ‘deadlock’.
What will follow is not certain as now but anyway
the prospect of continuing talks seems to me a sign
of change to a new stage. Only hope to see a better options coming up and feel the possibility of new geopolitical map-building in far east environment.
If KJI is smart (we know he’s cunning) he will sign on to this and then drag out the process for years to come, while taking advantage of all the numerous benefits that are sure to come his way. Eventually a crunch time may come again, just as it did with the last agreement in ‘94, but he’ll have bought another 10 years or so in the meantime.
Dr. Lankov has another great article on those fascinating Norks:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GH04Dg03.html
The relevant point here is at the end, where he writes about S. Korean aid being used to prop up the regime: “In dealing with the broader public, such largesse is explained by nationalist and/or humanitarian concerns, but it seems that Seoul worries more about the political stability in Pyongyang. The South is afraid of a democratic revolution in the North, politely known as “implosion”. The German-style unification is now seen as a potential disaster since it could lead to a dramatic decline in the living standards of the South Koreans. Seoul believes that the aid money will help North Korean society afloat and thus allow postponement of the dreaded unification to some point in the distant future. Like the Soviets a couple of decades ago, the South Koreans want to keep the North afloat, no matter what happens inside this country.”
So, with the South basically guaranteeing the existence of the regime for the foreseeable, there isn’t much motivation for the norks to change their ways, is there? They might sign off on this “agreement” but its highly doubtful any truly verifiable denuclearization will take place.
Are “implosion” and “democratic revolution” the same thing in the North? That’s assuming a lot of things not in evidence.
If the Northerners want to throw off the current leadership, is there any guarantee that they will opt for democracy? I think the coming implosion will be anarchic, not democratic.
And since when is South Korea guaranteeing the existence of the North? It’s the Chinese who are doing that, sir. They could stop anytime they want to.
I’ll fisk Lankov’s comments later. Right now I have to leave the office.
You’d have to ask Dr. Lankov, but there aren’t too many ideologies left these days, so I think he simply means that people would reject the current status. China is “investing” in the North more now than before (according to reports) but come on, it’s painfully obvious that S. Korea is guaranteeing the regime’s continuation, Prez Roh has said many things to that effect this year. When the shizzle hits the fan, it could be anarchy, but maybe, who knows, the South’s engagement now might actually alleviate it. I think their engagement is morally repugnant, but if it leads to an overall soft landing I wouldn’t begrudge them. However, it could just as likely be a big old mess.