Unification Minister Chung Dong-young finally gave us a glimpse of the “important proposal” he presented to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il last month. My initial impression is that it doesn’t look that bad — not entirely front-loaded, although given Monday’s deal on intra-Korean projects, there wasn’t any real need to sweeten the pot. Like I said, it doesn’t look bad, but anytime you negotiate with the North Koreans, the devil is in the details (and the negotiating process itself). The Chosun Ilbo is calling on the government to “tread carefully.” This is a wise move, IMHO, because as GI Korea points out, another shoddy deal will produce more shoddy results:
The prior disarmament framework by President Clinton that was meant to stop their nuclear program didn’t work because the North Koreans went ahead and kept making weapons anyway while enjoying the free international aid because there was no rigid inspection guidelines to ensure compliance. They just kept real quiet about it and gave the appearance of behaving. This will be the same deal they will be looking for at this next round of talks starting this month on the 25th of July. The North Koreans just want a nice face saving deal that gives them the free food, money, and the oil they need to keep the regime going plus have enough flexibility in the agreement to be able to covertly hide their weapons program.
In turn they will keep quiet and give the appearance of good behavior to the international community, all the foreign diplomats can pat each other on the back about what a great job they did, heck maybe somebody can even get a Nobel Peace Prize out of this like Kim Dae Jung did back in 2000. All the while the North Koreans will be sitting back enjoying their spoils, their people still starving, make no progress on human rights, and continue to covertly make nuclear weapons.
I hope it certainly doesn’t come down to that. For what it’s worth, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, who’ll be heading the U.S. delegation during the talks, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he’ll come away with a deal that puts this issue to bed once and for all. I’ll also point out that there should be a tremendous amount of pressure on South Korea to see a satisfactory deal come out of this — much to Seoul’s credit, it has been taking a leading role as of late, and in many ways, the fourth round of six-party talks is “their baby.” Moreover, if we see a “third North Korean nuclear crisis” a couple of years down the road, the U.S. is going to be even less inclined to talk it out, regardless of who is in the White House, so it’s imperative that Seoul use a little of that “brotherly love” to convince the North Koreans that it’s in the vital interests of both Koreas that a SATISFACTORY deal get done NOW.
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Yawn. Boring. Same old story. Nothing will happen other than the same old thing. It only looks good on paper. Boring.
Marmot, have you ever considered covering some sporting issues? How about the Park Ji Sung transfer to Manchester United? I’ve read Hiddink’s interviews on Korean players having a real difficult times adjusting to European culture. I think it was a bad move by Park to leave Holland. I think he’ll play 3 or 4 games for Man United, fail to adjust nor impress, then end up sitting on the bench. Park was successful in Holland because he got the chance to play under Hiddink who had faith in his Korean players to keep running them up there. Park will not get that same advantage in England. Short sighted move.
Ahh… another depressing news. I can’t see how this is supposed to be any different from the 94 deal. We have ALWAYS had TONS of stuff to offer DPRK and we delivered these goods. The problem is and will forever be the DPRK’s reaction. Under Clinton we managed to slow them down, but ultimately NK was able to produce nukes using different technology. Are we going to have to monitor both their stockpile of plutonium and uranium? I don’t know. I’m not a physicist or engineer, but everything seems so bleak when we failed to guesstimate at Iraq’s WMD research progress, how much more difficult it is to monitor NK? At best, we are giving cash to DPRK to slow them down and to ensure they don’t sell WMD technology abroad.
At this point, I’m almost hoping that the talks fail, just so that we don’t have to pay additional taxes. Maybe the dialogue have been focusing on the wrong issue all this time.
I think the only people in the entire world who aren’t skeptical of the impending talks is the Roh administration. Sad to say, but the issue isn’t the DPRK regime. It’s the administration in the ROK. As long as they keep coddling the North, it just doesn’t matter what deal is cut. They continue to reward bad behavior, plain and simple. Hopeless.
I agree with the virtual wanderer: if anything, it is the ‘94 deal adjusted for inflation. GI Korea seems to be content in blaming Clinton and perhaps the idea that NK can be trusted is naive and then again perhaps it was the best thing that he could do and not risk huge casualties or even entering an all-out war. What country will give another country, particularly one that has traditionally been an enemy, completely free and unfettered access to their country? The US doesn’t even do that for its own citizens-let alone for another country. Just for arguments sake, assume that this access was granted. How long do you think this access would last? Surely indefinate access cannot be argued as being a reasonable expectation. That brings us back to the crux of the matter-at what point can NK be trusted to do or not do what they have agreed to? What will it take?
I also agree with knickerbocker-the Roh administration has done nothing to help the situation (except maybe for NK). It seems too much like Seoul is saying we need DPRK to exist because the economic calamity that would accompany reunification would probably cause us to increase taxes, tax the health care/food system and set the country’s economic growth back at least five years. The prospect of refugees from the north and those returning from China and the accompanying crime and housing issues as well as employment issues would, it appears far too clearly, like more than anything to be avoided right now.
The one bit of news regarding this that is simply incredulous is the claim from the Secretary of State that “North Korea’s decision to return to nuclear disarmament talks was a vindication of the Bush administration’s strategy and not solely the result of a South Korean offer to provide the North with electricity.” Read the article here.
I guess since she could not get the Japanese to restart their imports of American (Mad Cow) beef, the next best thing is to claim credit for other’s work.
Crediting South Korea with it all is a foolish proposition too. South Korea has given the North things in the past with no talks resulting. All of these moves have an ebb and flow, and North Korea picks when it wants to dangle “hope” out there and when it doesn’t. Trying to find the magic key to success in getting these talks going anywhere but in Pyongyang is a lost cause.
Nobody seems to be able to stomach the idea that containment is the only logical solution given the factors involved.
Somebody above mentioned how we could expect an enemy to open up for their enemy.
Fine. That is the siuation. But, why does that make creating a deal we don’t believe will accomplish certain minimal goals more acceptable?
If North Korea wanted to join the world, it could do so with a heavy amount of American support. We would be skeptical at first, but we already have the Soviet collapse example and perhaps others like China and even Japan after WWII or Germany.
Why should Pyongyang’s paranoia about its ability to survive as a regime if it opens up its society be a deciding factor in the US choosing to cut a deal that leaves North Korea with some nuclear bombs and doesn’t create a framework in which it can’t simply unpack its programs in the future when it feels like it?
Maybe North Korea is really afraid beyond a point it can bare that the US is chomping at the bit to invade it.
But, it is clear it is that paranoid about losing power regardless of US actions if it lets the North Korean people find out about the outside world or if the government loosens its grip on the people.
It isn’t the US that can’t adapt to a peaceful Korean peninsula. It’s Pyongyang….
Ooooo… Marmot must be busy today. He hasn’t posted
http://english.chosun.com/w21d.....20030.html
Maybe in exchange for electricity NK will agree to SK demand that both side remove guard posts from the DMZ. A triumph in diplomacy.