The Marmot’s Hole

The week started with us hoping that ROK President Roh’s visit to Miguk (America) might get our juices flowing, but all we got was this:

During the meeting, Bush said the United States would not attack North Korea, according to an official statement issued by the South Korean government on Sunday. He also agreed to give the North Korea multinational security guarantees, badly needed energy and “more normal relations” once the North abandoned its development of nuclear weapons, the statement said.

Analysts were quick to say that Bush’s proposals were nothing new and had already been laid out in June last year.

Conspicuously absent was any new incentive that South Korean officials had hoped would lure North Korea back to the negotiating table. That absence may indicate that the United States and South Korea have not resolved potentially explosive differences in how to handle North Korea, experts said.

“If North Korea returns to the talks soon, all will be O.K.,” said Nam Sung Wook, a North Korea expert at Korea University. “But what if North Korea doesn’t? We haven’t heard anything about whether Bush and Roh have agreed on what to do in such a scenario. What’s most interesting about this summit is the part that has not been revealed to the public.”

We did, however, learn that Washington might be finally — finally — contemplating some sort of concrete policy that might solve the current crisis.

The comments by the official suggested that the long debate in the administration over how to handle North Korea may be coming to a boil. President Bush is to meet with the president of South Korea, Roh Moo Hyun, on Friday, at a moment of unusually high tension between the two allies over North Korea.

The week also saw continuing rumblings that Washington is contemplating re-evaluating the current status of its alliance with the ROK, that there might be no
charge of the light brigade if the DPRK gets frisky.

North Korea?????s nuclear ambitions may be the marquee source of agitation in the US-South Korea alliance. But other factors are also behind the relationship?????s rough waters. Among them: China?????s emergence as an Asian power, Japan?????s more prominent role in security issues, signs of a US rethink of its defense role in South Korea, and Seoul?????s desire for a more equal-partner relationship.

???The core of the US-South Korea alliance is North Korea, and the fact that [the two countries] see the issue very differently is what stands out,???? says Derek Mitchell, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ???But beyond North Korea are other sources of tension????. The US is questioning what it is getting out of the alliance, and that makes South Korea nervous.????

Indeed, some Pentagon officials and regional experts consider the alliance ???ripe???? for review. But largely because long-term trends are pulling the two countries apart, the two presidents are likely to focus on the immediate picture, experts say. Mr. Bush will thank Mr. Roh for the participation of South Korean troops in Iraq, and they will discuss prospects for the six-party talks. But the big issues are likely to be left alone.

People keep telling us not to worry about the DPRK, but we keep worrying anyway.

The RAND Corp. did an interesting study of the practicality of Korean unification that is a “must read” for anyone interested in the subject.

We also learned that Kim Jong-Il likes his coffee strong.

I also started “guest blogging” here on The Marmot’s Hole in the last week. Everything you need to know about me as a writer can be found here. Some samples of my work for publication are here, here and here.

This week’s Moment of Zen:

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a visit to Asia last week that North Korea was ???a living hell???? for all but its elite. A week earlier, Vice President Dick Cheney called North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ???one of the world?????s most irresponsible leaders,???? drawing scathing protests from Pyongyang.