The South Korean prodded Mr. Bush at one point. “How do you feel, Mr. President,” Mr. Roh said. “Wouldn’t you agree that the alliance is strong and - ?”
“I would say the alliance is very strong,” Mr. Bush said, thanking Mr. Roh for his “frank assessment” of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Well, U.S. President George W. Bush met up with ROK President Roh Moo Hyun on Friday and everything went well, although at least one report said the event was conspicuously inconspicuous.
This was Mr Roh’s second visit to the US, and his fourth meeting with Mr Bush. Marcus Noland, seniorfellow at the Institute for International Economics, said: “The impression is that he is flying in under the radar. South Korea has the third largest number of troops in Iraq, yet there are no public meetings, just a closed door meeting and a lunch. It is almost a surreptitious meeting.
“Even President Recep Erdogan of Turkey [who visited the White House this week] got a better reception, yet their country was unhelpful in Iraq with real repercussions for the US.”
Kurt Campbell, director of the International Security Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, agreed: “There is sensitivity on both sides. They do not want to have a summit that goes awry. It has certainly been less than the red carpet.”
The AP story on the visit has the gem of an ending ‘graph:
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a visit to Asia last week that North Korea was “a living hell” for all but its elite. A week earlier, Vice President Dick Cheney called North Korean leader Kim Jong Il “one of the world’s most irresponsible leaders,” drawing scathing protests from Pyongyang.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Asia Times hasn’t forgotten that Kim Jong-Il is lurking in the shadows, waiting for his chance to put a pudgy finger on the “launch” button.
Although the likelihood of a North Korean nuclear-weapons test is somewhat higher than it was six months ago, several factors suggest that Pyongyang remains unlikely to conduct a test in the near term. Reports that US intelligence has observed “rapid, extensive preparations” and a statement by a North Korean official that “a plutonium-based test is unavoidable” exacerbated fears that North Korea would continue its escalatory policy. But even as Pyongyang continues to pursue brinksmanship tactics, a nuclear test carries significant costs for North Korea.
A nuclear test would be the next logical stage in the development of North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program since Pyongyang has already conducted nearly 100 high-explosive tests related to nuclear warhead development, according to media reports of US intelligence assessments. Moreover, a nuclear test would further North Korean national objectives and be consistent with Pyongyang’s recent return to brinkmanship tactics.
[...]
Kim likely understands the irreversible consequences of conducting a test. A test would remove the strategic ambiguity that allows Beijing and Seoul to avoid acknowledging North Korea as a nuclear state. A test would also provide the George W Bush administration the necessary justification to bring the nuclear issue before the UN Security Council. Although Beijing has publicly rejected US “strong-arm tactics” toward North Korea, Chinese officials have privately indicated growing frustration and anger with North Korea and a willingness to step aside following a nuclear test if the US took the issue to the Security Council. A test would likely derail any potential diplomatic resolution to the nuclear impasse, encouraging a range of more aggressive US strategies. Although Pyongyang has exhibited little interest in continuing negotiations, its most recent official statements and informal entreaties suggest it has not yet fully rejected the six-way talks.
And, lastly, freshly (I suspect) from the World Association of Newspapers Congress held last week in Seoul, USAToday founder Al Neuharth gives us our official “moment of zen,” as The Daily Show folks would say:
On a practical and personal note, I was able to buy North Korean booze on the south side of the DMZ at the popular “Unification Village” store.
6 Comments
Here’s a little scoop for the Marmot crowd: the Korean reporters at the White House press conference were miffed that they weren’t given an opportunity to ask questions. Don’t ask me how I know, because I won’t tell you.
At any rate, I was impressed by Roh’s firmness in the statements he made, quite unlike the shoot-from-the-lip approach he usually takes–maybe the truncated press conference had something to do with it. It was also interesting that Bush apologized for the accident in Dongducheon, which of course will be rejected as “insincere” by some parties here, but it must have been fairly spontaneous considering the accident just happened. At any rate, I think Bush really wants to see the North in the six-way talks, if only to stall for time, since all other options are messier/uglier.
Watched the NBC News tonight. They had a 15 second blurb about President Bush’s press confrence with “South Korean president Roh”. As expected, Korea related news does not rate that highly in the American press priority. I suppose that is both good and bad for Korea.
Now compare that to the news coverage in Korea about this meeting of the two presidents. America sneezes, Korea goes into a deathly convulsion which in turn hardly registers in America.
You’d think they’d give it a bit more than 15 seconds, considering how there’s so much focus on NK these days…or maybe that’s just all us expats, 1.5ers, Kyopos, policy wonks, and interested foreigners who are actually following this stuff.
[...] armots Hole [my 3rd favorite blog and the best in the world on Korean issues] has a good round up of curiosity, analysis, and speculation about President Roh#821 [...]
presdent roh was snubbed. lunch? ha! there’s no way to spin that positively. the message is clear that he needs to choose whether he is an ally with the US who is still at war with north korea or whether he wants to risk all security by encouraging and supporting dprk into some form of capitalism, all the while not dealing with their WOMD research and possible production.
china is the key to pressuring dprk into some form of agreement that includes nuclear facility monitoring by IAEA again. as far as i can tell, it will be in china’s best interest to let things continue on the way they are as long as possible.