RAND Corporation has just published a report — prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) — on the circumstances, costs and consequences of Korean unification. RAND was kind enough to include for download both the full version and a shorter summary for you lazy bastards out there (both in .pdf). If there’s ever been a MUST READ linked to my blog, this this it. Here’s the abstract:
Analyzes economic, political, and security issues associated with Korean unification. Considers how the North Korean system might unravel, leading to possible unification, and what the capital costs of unification would be under differing circumstances and assumptions. Compares points of relevance and nonrelevance between the German experience with unification in the 1990s and what might occur in Korea.
Man, if that doesn’t pitch your tent, frankly, I don’t know what will.


10 Comments
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Marmot, thanks for posting this. It really pitches several of my tents. I can use it in revising my article on unification . . . yes, the one that I was talking about two years ago.
Anyway, sorry that I haven’t been around much lately. I visit, scan, and read but don’t comment. My own blog along with other work keeps me very busy these days.
Wow, i’m giddy just opening the link.
Holy freak 95 pages!! How much is that going to cost me to print?? lol
Thanks for the tip, but I wasn’t all that impressed by the report. It contains some rather odd assumptions, such as the assumption that fewer North Koreans will travel to the South than East Germans did to the West. It cites such a broad range of estimates for the cost of reunification that I can’t see a statistical significance to them. The greatest disappointment was its collapse scenarios on pp. 22+, which were too short, too few in number, too shallow, and for the most part, implausible. Still, reading it–or more accurately, skimming it–did give me an idea of just how little thinking we’ve done about this.
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