A commenter linked to a very thought-provoking piece by Andrei Lankov in the Asia Times that argues that an amnesty for Pyongyang’s leaders might lead to a quicker end to the North Korean regime. Read it in its entirety — here’s just the intro:
A survivor of the North Korean prison camps concludes a story of his suffering at the hands of Kim Il-sung’s henchmen by saying, “I think I will live to see how those bastards will go to prison, to pay for all what they have done to us.” It is easy to understand that this man, in his late 30s, with such an experience of torture, betrayal, lies and destitution, would expect revenge. After all, Adolf Hitler’s executioners (well, most of them) went to prison, and some even to the gallows. Thus, it is only rational to expect that the same fate would befall the people who run one of the bloodiest “minor” dictatorships in the world.
But let’s face it: such a triumph of justice is unlikely to happen. Furthermore, it probably should not be allowed to happen: the only way to prevent further suffering in North Korea might be by granting the country’s elite complete immunity from persecution for all crimes committed during their rule.
It’s a great piece, and definitely worth the read. Personally, I have my reservations about the feasibility of offering Kim asylum, which I noted in this blog post after reading a similar piece by Dr. Lankov in January.
18 Comments
The points made in the comments section from your previous post on this subject are still “on target”.
There would be little incentive to “keep the deal” once the KJI regime is gone and the horrors perpetrated by them become well-known to the world. No western nation would agree to be a sanctuary, only PRC would be even remotely plausible. Even then a future PRC government might find it convenient to give up Kim henchmen some day, assuming DPRK began a period of rapid recovery and freedom after some sort of reunification, and trade mushroomed between PRC and some sort of “reunified” Korea.
Also never underestimate the power of sheer arrogance, of which this particular regime must rank in the top 10% of all history’s totalitarian autocracies. “Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven”, did I get that quote right?
And the regime is a lot more than just the Kims and the top people; we’re talking about the complicity of a whole lot of “apparatchiks” of the NorK Communist party. Anyone have any idea what the membership figures are for DPRK communist party (out of total DPRK population of what, 8 million or so?)
Offhand, I don’t think a comparison to the fall of any of the East European Communist regimes is an appropriate analogy, as I don’t think any of them ran anything like the NorK “gulag” system. Even the Soviet “gulag” was about 30 years in the past by the time the Soviet Union fell (in terms of the excesses of Stalin’s time, which is the appropriate comparison to what goes in NorK even up to the present).
Paul H. wrote:No western nation would agree to be a sanctuary, only PRC would be even remotely plausible.But who says he has to go to a Western nation? Why not a nice, warm Pacific island? Why not Mongolia? I’m sure there would be some place willing to take him for a fee.out of total DPRK population of what, 8 million or so?According to the CIA World Fact Book, the population is 22,912,177.
This is a July 2005 estimate (a very precise figure, considering it’s a month or so into the future).
Anyway, it’s almost three times what you guessed (or were you suggesting 8 million was party membership?). I wish it were only 8 million… we could walk in like we own the place.
One word: Cuba.
No, I was thinking of total population, thanks for the link and correction.
I wouldn’t have even guessed at the total population, except just recently I saw a short summary statistical chart in a newspaper article, giving (among other things) the population for the two Koreas as 8 million for the North and 22 million for the South! So I had those numbers stuck in my brain; naturally, I can’t find the article now, I’ll have to go back and look for it more intensively, as I want to see if it’s my memory or the article that is so seriously in error (assuming the CIA is right of course).
I see your link also gives total population for the south as 48 million! So I definitely needed to have my chain jerked as regards these figures.
I’d assume less than a million for DPRK Communist party strength, but maybe I need to be brought up short on that figure as well. But it’s just a pure guess, haven’t tried to research it yet. You’d think the CIA would take the trouble to put this figure in their “fact book”, but I just skimmed the whole thing and didn’t see it anywhere.
Not quite the same situation but the Shah of Iran made off OK, and if Kim Jong-illin’ gets the Get Out of Pyongyang Free card and is allowed to take some bodyguards with him, he might go for it, who knows?
The fat man and his henchmen won’t go for it, because even the paranoid do have enemies, and they know that eventually theirs will catch up with them - a la the fellow who had been the head of KCIA that the KCIA itself later arranged to have assasinated in Paris by a couple of hired Eastern European hitmen (with the activee assistance of the KCIA station choef in Paris).
Mr. Marmot, you made good points in the earlier post about S. Korea’s role in any amnesty, although when the shizzle hits the fan, don’t you think Kim would deal with China first to arrange his Swiss chalet(in Szechuan)exile? You know, lips and teeth…I think China would protect him just to keep his mouth shut about the Chinese role in keeping the regime going.
I bet China would have no problem sheltering Kim and family. Question is would Fat Kim’s fat ego let him leave HIS country?
KJI will never go for it. He is no ordinary crackpot third world dictator. He also knows, if he ever loses power, he’s a dead man, sanctuary or no sanctuary. And once NK falls, all the radical leftists like the Hanchongryon students should be rounded up and be forced to tour all the Auschwitzes, and forced to dig the graves. That would be their punishment.
One word: Cuba.
Comment by Wedge
Sure, I think the American gulag there could acomodate a few more crazies…
If promises of amnesty help, why not. But when reunification comes, let’s have a snipers contest. Invite all democratic nations to send their best snipers and see who hits waht…
The much-vilified Stasi, the East German security police, appeared to be harsh only if compared to the standards of affluent and democratic Europe. What could happen to an individual in East Germany if he got himself in trouble with the authorities? Such a person was likely to lose promotion or the opportunity to travel overseas.
A spanking and a tongue-lashing is all you got? Are we reading the prose of a revisionist here? Remember the corpses left hanging on the Wall after having been shot, while trying to escape the DDR? What about the other east-block nancies? Ceaucescu? The Bulgarians? These countries weren’t prolly *that* bad, but people were tortured and killed there too.
Man!
I have always thought that with the NK rulers in a tight spot due to international pressure (nukes, human rights, etc.) and internal pressure (starvation), offering them a ‘comfortable’ out might be the cleanest and easiest way to get rid of them and unify the two Koreas. It is reassuring to see that I am not the only one who thinks this idea is not too far fetched. Of course, generations to follow would condemn the leaders that allowed them to retire and live out their lives in peace rather than face responsibility for what they had done. To that end, finding a suitable place for them might be hard. An island in the South Pacific might be nice and somewhat convenient politically but would they accept it? I don’t think there are any other countries that would accept having them.
How about that island that’s sinking due to global warming?
That sounds good-it gives them an out but it doesn’t take away all their problems…
The Maldives?
Way to good for them…
When everything else fails, Argenti?±a and Paraguay have always been a refuge for, hmmm, *unwanted creep*
I vote to put him on Dokdo.
Scratch that. Korea would probably vote him into office 5 years later for being a hero of the Korean nation for protecting Korean land from Japan.
come on, michaelmichael… I can understand why you might be angry at PRC, but you really think they would cover KJI’s hiney AFTER DPRK collapses? The reason, “to hide their complicity” doesn’t make any sense at all. PRC just do what they want, and don’t seem to really care what anyone says anyway. On the otherhand, there is tremendous boon to gain by screwing KJI.
Dr.Lankov mentions some precedents in giving amnesty… I would like to hear more about this… I personally don’t think we will be able to give the very top DPRK officials amnesty, but simple pragmatism will dictate that we will give the vast majority of them amnesty… Say… Giving KPA ranking officers of Major and below complete amnesty might be a start…
non-Korean wrote:Korea would probably vote him into office 5 years later for being a hero of the Korean nation for protecting Korean land from Japan. Non-Korean, don’t believe the hype.