Haven’t read it all yet, but the International Crisis Group has just released a report on economic change in North Korea that looks like a must read for anyone interested in events up North.
(Kindly sent by a reader)
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23 Comments
Despite the talk of isolating North Korea, if we really want a change there, perhaps the best way is engagement. I don’t mean giving them money, but rather encouraging cross-border (not just with South Korea) trade, academic exchanges, and a general opening up of the country. Eventually, exposure to the West is what brought down the USSR. As the elite realized that middle class Westerners ate better food, drove better cars and wore better suits, the Soviet elite just sort of gave up. As North Koreans become aware that South Koreans eat rice twice a day, etc., etc., perhaps they too will give up, or at least put enough pressure on the government that it finally decides to stop killing people to stay in power.
Yes, I’m dreaming, but its a beautiful dream. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
Bj’s comment makes sense to me on a intuitive level. Perhaps it is not such a far fetched dream . . .
North Korea cannot and will not open up to a greater degree under the leadership of a dynastic regime. The North Korean leadership may be inhumane, but they’re not stupid.
Victor Cha said it best:
“People talk about how [the North Koreans] are interested in trading their nuclear weapons for food, fuel and security, but I really think they want both. This is the most closed society in the world. And once you start to open it up, if you are the North Korean leadership, you are risking the whole thing coming apart. So, the notion that they would be willing to engage and completely give up their nuclear deterrent, to me at least, it’s not logical.”
I too share the dream.
I have a number of questions though-is it the worlds goal to see the Korean peninsula reunited as one politcal entity? or are we to be content with a NK that follows the PRC bicycle model of economics? I agree that engagement, not appeasement, is the way to bring about change in NK but I would hate to see NK further suffer by going through a stalled era of change like China-only to be further manipulated by the leaders that have used them for the past 50 or so years. That is something I would not want to see. Right now it would appear that the world is in a Mexican standoff with NK over the nukes and it seems like a distant dream. I hope it happens soon.
Although China and Vietnam have kept their iron fist clenched along with adopting the invisible hand, I’m with Mingi and Victor Cha on this when in comes to NK. Even if they wanted to open, the North Korean leadership would get washed away if it opened its borders. There are simply too many big lies underpinning every aspect of the Kim Dynasty. Even returnees from the “free country” of China are treated suspiciously or outright quarantined when they return. Kim Jong-il has toured China 2-3 times and liked the HARDWARE of what he saw, but he (or the army that keeps him in power) appears to have shuddered at the thought of all that social freedom and capitalistic decadence.
Still, pushing a dramatic opening would be the best way to escort Kim (and Castro) to the dustbin of history that surely awaits them. Kim Dae-jung’s initial vision of the Sunshine Policy appeared to pursue this course (and North Korea read its Aesop and hated the term). But in Roh’s hands, the focus on peaceful evolution on North Korea has degenerated into appeasement. Pyongyang prefers getting the largesse on its terms and Seoul is all too obliging.
Many people, especially Americans, have false notion of how the USSR opened up. It was not due to Reagan nor due to Glagnost but due to Gorbachev’s mother who was a Baptist Christian.
She raised her son in Christian way and Gorby saw his country need change. He opened up the Stalin state and gave freedom to his people. It has nothing to do with outside pressure. A communist state can continue even in the worst times. Look at NK. These states have secret police which will protect the regime even in dire circumstances.
No real change will happen in the NK unless its leadership changes. Some bad people got to go. We need a covert assassination.
However, the collapse of NK at this particular time will bring unexpected outcome for both the SK and the U.S. Unnecessary confrontation/war with China may ensue. Things should be left as is.
baduck is that what they teach you in your kookie korean church. Your Kyopo logis is impressive.
Daehanpoop, nice response i really enjoy a good laugh prior to going to sleep thanks!
“baduck is that what they teach you in your kookie korean church. Your Kyopo logis is impressive.”
Baduk’s logic is baduk’s logic. There’s no one size “kyopo logic” that fits all. I’ve read some outlandish opinions from non-Kyopo Americans too.
I did not hear it in Korean church at all. I have heard it from Christian Broadcasting Network(CBN) or 700 Club.
Do not assume KAs are all the same or stupid. Some of rednecks are stuck in 1950s and like to put down KAs in any way you can.
Maybe you are a “frog in a well” too.
Daehanpoop and dstur,
I have served the country, the U.S., as a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy for four years. And, I want you to see me as a U.S. Navy officer. Can I get some respect from you for serving the country, or just as an American citizen?
Yes, I am a Kyopo but I am an American, maybe more than you.
“non-Kyopo Americans’ says Noolhwadong, is the world divided up to americans and koreans. Actually, i didnt mean to diss baduck. I hear a lot of bizare theories coming out of korean churches.
President Reagan was a poor president. He almost bankrupted the whole country by his odd “voodoo” economics (Bush Sr.’s words) that gave heavy tax cut to the rich.
The presidents after him had to tax, tax and tax the U.S. public, just to make payments for the national debt this dum-dum single-handedly created.
However, Reagan was an Irish. IrishAmericans have some image problems in the U.S. and having “their” president look bad could result in them looking bad. So, they are eager to tell everyone they meet “Reagan broke the USSR”.
The truth is that Gorby broke the USSR!
This dum-dum went to Japan, gave one half hour speech and got two million dollars. What a payoff! Exactly what did Reagan do for these Japan Incorporateds, I wonder.
I stay at nights wondering about that.
“I did not hear it in Korean church at all. I have heard it from Christian Broadcasting Network(CBN) or 700 Club.”
Gee, I guess that just about clears everything up…
http://www.forerunner.com/fore.....risti.html
I actually agree with the commenters who say that the North Korean leadership is afraid to open up because it will be the death of them. But the end result of any liberalizing of the economy will be just that.
When I start to read articles like this, I have at least one thing I want answered about the reforms — occasionally over the last few years, I’ve heard that some of the reforms are little more than the North Korean government acknowledging well established black markets and changes that took place at local levels during the worst parts of the starvation period of the 1990s. The idea is that the NK gov. slowly went from active, widespread suppression of such activity, to mild toleration, to open toleration, and then acceptance.
This is cruicial for me though I admit I’m weak on economic issues.
Even in this article, much better than in sum, it points out that nobody can point to any one change or group of changes that NK has taken that will work. From the start until now, even the greatest praise for North Korean “reforms” has always been predicated on the idea that they were simply “signs” of a “willingness to reform” which the regime “would surely do sometime in the near future since they did this tiny baby step….”
And that argument has been easy to knock down by opponents by saying what several people here have said —- the NK regime clearly can’t take the necessary major steps for fear of survival. And, we can always point to other things currently going on along side any minor reforms — like int. NGOs leaving out of frustration with the regime’s interference in their ability to provide aid to people with the most need for it.
My brain must be fried. How can I use words like “sum” for “some”? It’s embarrassing……..and I was once an English major. This is the second apology I’ve had to write in the last hour due to ignorant mistakes in comments….I’m going back to bed….
I also forgot to point out the reason why I want to see if the reforms announced in a new article on NK are top-down gov sponsored changes or acceptance of already established changes at the local level brought about by the weakening of the gov’s ability to control or feed the people is that it is important for any author who wants to claim the changes are a “sure sign” of the regime’s willingness to take necessary (bigger) reforms in the near future…..
I attended a speech by Dr. Lankov a couple of months ago (sorry for quoting you, Dr. L - feel free to disagree with me if I am mistaken) and he said that these changes are driven from below. The black markets sprang up because people started selling produce from their balcony vegetable gardens and other people started buying them because they were, well, starving.
The government tolerated them because: 1. they were an alternative to starvation; and 2. they are losing the power (will) to suppress what obviously works (capitalism) and promote what obviously doesn’t work (communism).
This speaks to a reduction of state power - whether they like it or not.
Driven from below or not, it is good news. And the more changes like this, the better. Economic freedom does not necessarily and automatically bring a free society. An improving economy might give the regime some revenue and support. But, on the other hand, if we look at events like the French Revolution, regimes often change when they are trying to improve, not when they are getting worse. North Koreans realize there is a better way, they get a whiff of freedom, and who knows what will be the result?
More things seem to be happening economically in the North, which is great, and as Bluejeans suggests, if
The only problem is that I don’t think this is what Roh and his boys want. They don’t want it to come crashing down, so would prefer to give aid to keep KJI afloat. I think this idea of everything possibly going haywire with more economic freedom is definitely not something the South wants at this point.
sorry, for some reason the comments listing didnt let me lift Bluejeans quote
“North Koreans realize there is a better way, they get a whiff of freedom, and who knows what will be the result?”
so just add this to the above post after if…
A “wiff of freedom” will surely stimulate the minds North Koreans, but that might not be enough to overcome the Iron Fist.
Now if we can CBN and the 700 Club on NK TV, and follow up with an assault of missionaries, that would bring down the house of Kim.
I would not be surprise if right now the US government is giving Halliburton no-bid contracts to set up secret Christian broadcast towers and missionary training camps along the Chinese border.
The North Koreans have suffered enough, please let’s spare them from CBN or the 700 Club.