Interesting piece by Richard Halloran in the Washington Post about a recent conference where Korean and American scholars and officials discussed the future, if any, of the Korea-U.S. alliance:
South Korea is fast approaching a critical decision as to whether to try to revive its troubled alliance with the United States or dissolve their joint security treaty, expel American forces from the peninsula and seek an alliance with China.
At a gathering of South Korean and American scholars and officials, all experienced in U.S.-South Korea matters, there was general agreement that the future of the alliance was open to question, but disagreement on whether it was on the verge of dissolving. Some said it was ready to wither and die, while others contended that the alliance had weathered equally serious storms.
Money quote:
A year ago, Lee Chung-min, a scholar at Yonsei University in Seoul, articulated the issue: “The question for South Korea in the beginning of the 21st century is whether it should strive to prolong, strengthen and modernize its maritime alliance with the United States or strive to seek ’strategic accommodation’ with its traditional, pre-20th-century patron, China.”
South Korea, he said, must take “a long and hard look at its core security options and attendant consequences for at least the next two or three decades.”
In the conference here, a Korean scholar, who could not be identified under the rules of the meeting in order to encourage candor, posed the same question: “Who constitutes South Korea’s natural ally — a democratic America or an Asian China?”
Good question. I explored the question in this post from April of last year.
27 Comments
Wouldn’t it be great if the natural questions that sprank up in reference to the cost/benefit analysis of the US-SK alliance also involved something like “It is fast approaching a time the American people will have to decide if they will continue to maintain the risks of a 2nd Korean War or pull US troops out to use them elsewhere?”
It is the blissful ignorance of the American people that leaves the ball in the hands of Korean society and the US government.
As far as the scene goes, it seems to me the Korean government has some important elements that want to prepare for getting rid of USFK. The society has long been in support of the idea “when the time comes” and Roh has the mind and some followers who are actually talking about making moves to prepare for it. That is new.
In the United States, if also seems like an important part of the military and Defense Department and perhaps to a lesser extent some in Congress are looking into accomplishing the same goal — no USFK. In the past, Nixon and Carter had similar ideas. Nixon was able to pull out a large chunk of US forces. Carter failed. There was not enough consensus overall to make it happen.
I still doubt SK or the US or both will work itself into a position to change the status quo. SK will decide the cost is too high and the risk of North Korea not being their great brothers or afraid the US will do another Truman is too great and the North will invade again. The US will also decide it doesn’t want to spent the geopolitical capital of pulling out of a Cold War ally “just because” the Cold War is now over nor risk economic uncertainity if North Korea invades the South and it effects Japan and China’s economies and thus the global system.
If we had another usual orgy of hate in Korea for a few months or South Korea would go back to the periodic large spikes in anti-American street activity like the always did before 2003 when the US first started saying it was more than willing to pull out if SK wanted it, it would help push the removal plan along. Roh’s statements help convince important US policy makers USFK is a bad idea now, but I still hold out the hopeless hope the US people will be given a chance to cast their vote, and that ain’t gonna happen unless the media finds the story “juicy.”
Or, if another terrorist attack hits the United States in the mainland or an embassy or something similar, and the US starts to contemplate the possibility of yet another military action somewhere else, it will push more members of Congress and the US military to look at USFK as it has been as an albatross.
Again, I still see the prospects of fundamentally changing the relationship in the current environment at less than 50%.
However, in 2000, if you’d ask me the chances USFK would leave Korea anytime in the next couple of decades, I’d have put it at 5% or below. The fact that I can even contemplate the chances being close to 50% or maybe higher tells you a lot about how the environment has changed…..
How about a ROK-USA security alliance that does not involve the permanent stationing of American troops in Korea? America has many such alliances around the world. Maybe, in the long run, that will be how it develops.
Personally, I think a democratic South Korea has more to gain with an alliance with a democratic United States than an authoritarian China. The Americans and South Koreans have very serious issues to discuss, but it all pales in comparison to the potential Koguyro/North Korea (who will be in charge when it all crumbles) dispute. But do people in the US or Korea agree with me? The governments do, but…
IF China ever becomes democratic, snuggling up under some sort of protective umbrella may be a good option for Korea. Look how Canada has prospered with such a relationship with the US for years.
China and Korea…? Never thought of that one~ I haven’t asked, but I imagine about 1% of the Korean people I know would go for that idea… Better to stick with the friend you don’t like, than to go through a super-upheaval to get another friend that you don’t like…no?
Given that Korea has witnessed the blunt ways in which China wields its power (Koguyro revisionism anyone?), it just doesn’t seem rational
Then again, such a move is clearly motivated by rabid anti-Americanism and Asiatic chauvinist ethnic nationalism–neither of which are particularly rational behaviors, and thus not particularly subject to the pressures of reality.
It is just a matter of time until Korea goes back to China. No it won’t be anytime soon but it will happen within the next 15-30 years. Korea will try to play the U.S. for as long as it can until it makes the switch over to China - its traditional big brother. China will act very nice until USFK is out of Korea and then we will see how respectful China is towards Korea. I think America needs to realize this fact and not waste a lot of resources on Korea. Resources like long term defense money and putting a stop to the unfair trade practices of Korea the U.S. has been putting up with because Korea is an “ally”.
eh, i see the following implied line of reasoning in some of these arguments that the u.s. should withdraw from south korea: “if you don’t appreciate me, i’m gonna take my toys and go play somewhere else!” now while i think it’s probable that the security alliance needs to significantly revamped (and not just : ROK buys more US fighter jets), that particular piece of logic strikes me as being as childish as the korean tendency to get all in a fluster about olympic medals. if the U.S. withdrew troops from every country where a vocal majority (or even minority) “didn’t appreciate” all the money and people poured into maintaining bases, we’d have to get out of okinawa too, not to mention the current mess in iraq. if i’ve misconstrued your comments, forgive and correct.
oh and by the way, i do think the U.S. should bust-a-move and get out of the business of holding down the fort in cuba, korea, japan, germany, etc/propping up the military industrial complex. check out my unrepentant peace-nik ID card!
The South is already paying tribute to the North, why not go back to paying tribute to China as well? It worked for centuries until the Japanese got uppity with their Meiji something or other and started using Europe’s colonization as a model.
And Miss Stinky, although I like the told-you-so aspect of removing U.S. troops from here, the reason I would like to see it is that Korea needs to grow up and standing on its own two feet is the only way.
Dear Miss Stinky, whether the US stations troops in Korea or Germany or Afghanistan, or (name that country) is up to the US, Korea, German or Afghanistan’s leadership and people. The US is rapidly changing its force projection abilities in Asia and Korea’s role is to supply USFK to go elsewhere. Japan is the central hub for all American strategic thinking in Asia. From there the US is rapidly preparing Guam as a powerful Navy and AirForce base . Other players, from the American point of view, are Singapore, Philippines, and Australia. All of these locations give the US a strong defensive/offensive position along shipping lanes and China’s naval lifelines. Korea isn’t a vital part of American strategy but could be part of it if Korean’s choose to. Witholding support for this rapidly changing American global strategy is Korea’s Eticket ride out of the 50 year old American military umbrella. Incidentally Miss Stinky, China is rapidly building naval bases too, witness base construction in Pakistan, Hainan, and its overtures to Thailand. They aren’t dummies.
the usa leaves a divided korea that fifty years later still is volatile. the usa has some moral responsibility for keeping things at peace there. not to mention that it has treaty obligations, too.
it’s not like korea doesn’t live up to its end. in vietnam, south korea was stationing 50,000 troops a year there. and now in iraq, despite serious opposition, leftist roh has given the usa its second largest partner (only after the uk). it’s not like korea isn’t doing anything to support the usa.
it also cheeses me when american politicians (democrats or republicans) get in a tizzy when citizens in a democratic country start exercising their democratic right to speak their mind. it seems to many american congressional types liked it better when koreans didn’t speak up about the usa.
well, you know what? it’s called democracy, and it’s what the usa supposedly wanted here. now that we (the americans) don’t like the message coming from korea, we want to pick up our toys and go home to mommy who will give us peanut butter and jelly sandwiches with the crusts cut off.
ultimately, i think that they usfk move out of yongsan to pyongtaek will take a lot of the wind out of opposition to the us-rok alliance. that plus the fact that so many koreans who were flirting with china are finally realizing that big brother china hasn’t always been so nice and sweet.
love stick-wielding china can beat you black and blue.
“its traditional big brother”
And why go back to tradition, unless there is a significant reward for such a drastic change? Before few hundred years ago, USA didnt even exist. Why compare then and now, when they are such different situations? Now we have a significant Japan, a China that is rising (but will take at least two more decades to confront US in equal status), Russia and of course the US. I really dont get why ‘tradition’ plays a part in this discussion.
The phrase brother countries to China-Korea was first started with the Yuan Dynasty (Mongol). Before then, even Shilla was a state in equal status with the Tang, not to mention Balhae. So that phrase is traditional in a sense of (a max of ) 900 years. Comparing to the length of Korean history, thats not even 20%
I don’t understand why some of the Korean’s posting here think that the USA is throwing a temper tantrum by questioning Korean politician’s statements? The US is spending billions of dollars to upgrade our forces INSIDE Korea. Just the opposite of taking our marbles home to get peanut butter smeared on our faces. As the US public has had to relearn lately, countries forget the sacrifices from the past. Germans forgot, the French forgot, most of western Europe forgot. So to Americans forget the incredible Korean contributions in Vietnam and the much less stellar contributions in Iraq. Just as Koreans forget what Americans started doing in Korea starting in 1951. Its trite I know, but diplomacy isn’t about friendships, its about national interests. Korea and America will keep treaties, alliances just as long as both countries national interests are served. The stakes are much, much higher for Korea than the US though.
Quotes from Miss Stinky:
1) “eh, i see the following implied line of reasoning in some of these arguments that the u.s. should withdraw from south korea: ?橫if you don??t appreciate me, i??m gonna take my toys and go play somewhere else!?? ….
followed immediately by
2) “oh and by the way, i do think the U.S. should bust-a-move and get out of the business of holding down the fort in cuba, korea, japan, germany, etc/propping up the military industrial complex. check out my unrepentant peace-nik ID card!”
A thoroughly Kerry-like demonstration of “peacenik” positioning on both sides of the issue. Motives matter more that the actions themselves (?)
What exactly is it you want, Miss S? We (US) should get out of Korea immediately, but only if we can “sincerely” say that we are doing it for the “right” reasons?
My reason is straightforward if not “politically correct” — the ROK is big enough now to stand on its own two feet, without an endless US defense subsidy. Particularly now that the South is “engaging” the North with substantial economic aid, choosing to keep it afloat.
Be glad to keep the Mutual Defense Treaty (if the South still wants it…); just bring out all of our troops ASAP.
BTW, “if i??ve misconstrued your comments, forgive and correct.”
“I don??t understand why some of the Korean??s posting here think that the USA is throwing a temper tantrum by questioning Korean politician??s statements? The US is spending billions of dollars to upgrade our forces INSIDE Korea.”
Well, you see, the leaving of USFK is what most Koreans wanted all along. ‘Ja-ju-guk-bang; ??????????’ or independant national defense is what they wish. They dont want American soldiers in Korea, overroll a school girl etc, treat Koreans in a condescending way, and use it as diplomatic pressure tool (
*Dunno why, for some reason didnt print my whole post*
“I don??t understand why some of the Korean??s posting here think that the USA is throwing a temper tantrum by questioning Korean politician??s statements? The US is spending billions of dollars to upgrade our forces INSIDE Korea.”
Well, you see, the leaving of USFK is what most Koreans wanted all along. ‘Ja-ju-guk-bang; ??????????’ or independant national defense is what they wish. They dont want American soldiers in Korea, overroll a school girl etc, treat Koreans in a condescending way, and use it as diplomatic pressure tool (
*erm, OK? thats only half my message ^.^;;* oh well
BTW, does anybody have more links to these kinds of articles? I feel like I dont have lots of info of this issue. I.e. I dont exactly know how an alliance with either US or China works into Korea’s interest or disadvantage…
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