Comments on: Give the Fat Man a pass? Unlikely http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/ Korea... in Blog Format Sat, 22 Nov 2008 09:14:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: John Thacker http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10285 John Thacker Wed, 12 Jan 2005 16:49:57 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10285 This is one of those time inconsistency problems. When a dictator is still in power, it's in everyone's incentive to promise amnesty. Once he's out of power, there's no longer much incentive for the country to uphold its bargain. This is why some of us argued that revoking Pinochet's amnesty could be bad thing in the long run, because it reduces the chance that anyone else would take such a deal, as you note. This is one of those time inconsistency problems. When a dictator is still in power, it’s in everyone’s incentive to promise amnesty. Once he’s out of power, there’s no longer much incentive for the country to uphold its bargain.

This is why some of us argued that revoking Pinochet’s amnesty could be bad thing in the long run, because it reduces the chance that anyone else would take such a deal, as you note.

]]> By: dda http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10284 dda Tue, 11 Jan 2005 21:06:25 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10284 They can always promise amnesty. The same way Korean landlords make promises to their tenants: 1/ Make whatever promise is required to get the deal 2/ Get the damn deal signed. 3/ Deny there was ever such a promise. They can always promise amnesty. The same way Korean landlords make promises to their tenants:
1/ Make whatever promise is required to get the deal
2/ Get the damn deal signed.
3/ Deny there was ever such a promise.

]]> By: MLS http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10283 MLS Tue, 11 Jan 2005 19:40:56 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10283 You've got to be kidding? My new occupation shall be bank robber, mass murderer, rapist, sadist etc... Why? Because your all going to give me amnesty in the end! What a scam! And you are all falling fo it. Punishment is not revenge, its prevention. And, don't spit in my face boys and girls. Its not your brother-in-law that was executed with no trial with a bullet in the back of his head. Crime? Going to China to eat. Marc. Simkins You’ve got to be kidding? My new occupation shall be bank robber, mass murderer, rapist, sadist etc… Why? Because your all going to give me amnesty in the end! What a scam! And you are all falling fo it. Punishment is not revenge, its prevention. And, don’t spit in my face boys and girls. Its not your brother-in-law that was executed with no trial with a bullet in the back of his head. Crime? Going to China to eat.

Marc. Simkins

]]> By: haisan http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10282 haisan Tue, 11 Jan 2005 18:31:41 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10282 Heck, I'd give KJI and the top brass amnesty and let them abscond with $1 billion or so, just to settle in some cosy, equatorial island and go away. No punishment man could hand down could come close to being justice for all the terrible things they have done. Better to get them out and start rebuilding NK as soon as possible. Heck, I’d give KJI and the top brass amnesty and let them abscond with $1 billion or so, just to settle in some cosy, equatorial island and go away. No punishment man could hand down could come close to being justice for all the terrible things they have done. Better to get them out and start rebuilding NK as soon as possible.

]]> By: lirelou http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10281 lirelou Tue, 11 Jan 2005 17:17:43 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10281 Marmot, I believe that Jong-il and many of the old revolutionaries would be granted asylum in China should they ask. In 1998, the governor of one border province (Jilin, I believe) had been Kim Il-sungs executive officer back in the 88th Independent Brigade, and his wife, an ethnic Korean, had been one of Jong-il's wet nurses. THe point being that the Kims, as well as the rest of the old anti-Japanese United Army, and other 88th "Sniper" Bde vets, likely enjoy a residue of loyalty among their comrades across the border, where age and their shared history are still respected. Marmot,
I believe that Jong-il and many of the old revolutionaries would be granted asylum in China should they ask. In 1998, the governor of one border province (Jilin, I believe) had been Kim Il-sungs executive officer back in the 88th Independent Brigade, and his wife, an ethnic Korean, had been one of Jong-il’s wet nurses. THe point being that the Kims, as well as the rest of the old anti-Japanese United Army, and other 88th “Sniper” Bde vets, likely enjoy a residue of loyalty among their comrades across the border, where age and their shared history are still respected.

]]> By: Hamel http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10280 Hamel Tue, 11 Jan 2005 08:48:12 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10280 Didn't Castro offer Kim a place to stay if he needed it? I heard this somewhere but cannot confirm it now. Does it ring a bell with anybody? Didn’t Castro offer Kim a place to stay if he needed it? I heard this somewhere but cannot confirm it now. Does it ring a bell with anybody?

]]> By: The Marmot http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10279 The Marmot Tue, 11 Jan 2005 08:27:57 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10279 I don't think Dr. Lankov was arguing that they should be pardoned. I think most people agree that Kim Jong-il and crew deserve to be brought before justice, and my guess is that he will eventually find it at the bottom of a rope tied to a lamp post. Having said that, the argument Dr. Lankov raised -- and it does make sense -- that if Kim Jong-il knows there is no way out, there really isn't much incentive for him to do anything that would risk him losing power. Assuming we can't invade North Korea and kick him out, that doesn't leave us many options in term of trying to encourage Kim to risk reform. Heck, if that's what it would take to improve things up North and possibly get rid of Kim Jong-il, it would have to be considered. The problem is, given the nature of Kim's sins and the vissitudes of Korean politics, I can't see North Korea's leaders having much faith in any deal offered them. I don’t think Dr. Lankov was arguing that they should be pardoned. I think most people agree that Kim Jong-il and crew deserve to be brought before justice, and my guess is that he will eventually find it at the bottom of a rope tied to a lamp post. Having said that, the argument Dr. Lankov raised — and it does make sense — that if Kim Jong-il knows there is no way out, there really isn’t much incentive for him to do anything that would risk him losing power. Assuming we can’t invade North Korea and kick him out, that doesn’t leave us many options in term of trying to encourage Kim to risk reform. Heck, if that’s what it would take to improve things up North and possibly get rid of Kim Jong-il, it would have to be considered. The problem is, given the nature of Kim’s sins and the vissitudes of Korean politics, I can’t see North Korea’s leaders having much faith in any deal offered them.

]]> By: Peter North http://www.rjkoehler.com/2005/01/11/give-the-fat-man-a-pass-unlikely/#comment-10278 Peter North Tue, 11 Jan 2005 08:09:17 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=1390#comment-10278 the deal might be kept ... Idi Amin was just as notorious in his day and the "Magic Kingdom" let him live out his days in obscurity. the deal might be kept … Idi Amin was just as notorious in his day and the “Magic Kingdom” let him live out his days in obscurity.

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