On a state visit to France, President Roh continued to claim how his government was opposed to regime change in North Korea, and this time drew a line between Seoul and Beijing and “the United States and some Western countries” (”Western” probably including Japan):
PARIS — President Roh Moo-hyun said Monday during a state visit to France that, “Because the U.S. and some Western nations are thinking the North Korean regime must eventually collapse, Pyongyang feels a greater sense of insecurity and crisis.”
In the discussion with ethnic Koreans in Paris, President Roh added that, “Problems don’t get solved if you make value judgments about the North Korean regime. This is key.”
“As long as the regime itself is questioned due to the North Korean nuclear issue, those countries that do not want it to collapse, like China and South Korea, and those countries and individuals that think regime change is necessary will not be able to coordinate,” he said.
Cheong Wa Dae spokesperson Kim Jong-min was quick to point out, however, that Roh wasn’t referring to the U.S. government, of course, but just to certain individuals in the United States. And by certain individuals, he almost certainly means AEI scholar Big Nick Eberstadt, who appears to have succeeded in scaring the crap out of the South Korean government. Roh did all but name Nick in London during an interview with the Beeb last week:
But he said some vocal circles in the US with considerable influence had been calling for regime change in North Korea, when the only way to induce it to embark on reforms was through dialogue.
It is not the first time South Korea has insisted that resolving the crisis over North Korea can only be done peacefully.
Back to Paris, Roh made sure to add that he’s prepared to make good on his promise to tell Washington what he has to say:
“South Korea should have the strongest voice in the course of narrowing the gap,” he said. “If I had to get red-faced with someone (with anger), I would have no choice but to.”
Now, don’t get me wrong — I understand fully why Roh, as president of the Republic of Korea, might have concerns with the U.S. or other parties trying to solve the North Korean nuclear issue by force. One problem, however, is that I’m not entirely sure how connected with reality Roh is at the moment. Here’s an example of what I’m talking about:
During a talk Wednesday night with Koreans residing in Britain, Mr. Roh said that Seoul would have a central role in deciding how to pursue discussions with North Korea. Mr. Roh said, “No other countries can enforce their own solutions to the nuclear problem against the will of the Korean people.”
Now, it’s nice that Roh believes that, but even he has to know that any number of states could enforce their own solutions to the nuclear problem with very little regard for Seoul’s position. And those states include but are not limited to all of South Korea’s immediate neighbors. I’m not arguing that that Washington or any other participant in the six-party talks should ignore Seoul; all I’m pointing out is that they could, and this does place limitations on South Korean diplomacy, whether Roh realizes it or not.
Take, for instance, Unification Minister Chung Dong-young’s truly horrifying interview with OhMyNews. It should become fairly clear that Seoul is aiming to become both a middleman between Pyongyang and Washington AND Pyongyang’s slightly more rational spokesperson. The problems with this are fairly manifest — China has already taken the position of middleman between Pyongyang and Washington, and Seoul hasn’t shown the U.S. any reason to believe South Korea has more clout over the North than China, so why would the U.S. chose to go through Seoul when it can just cut deals with China? And if worse comes to worse, the U.S. will act to protect its interests, regardless of what Seoul thinks, and is more likely to do so in ways contrary to South Korean interests if Washington is convinced that it and Seoul aren’t playing on the same team, a conviction that Roh’s trip to Europe — combined with his speech in LA — may have actually enforced, inadvertently or otherwise. The irony is that while Roh has spent much time warning the Bush administration — and he’s been really careful (with the possible exception of today’s speech) to draw a line between the White House and “the crazy neocons” (i.e., the perceived excesses of Eberstadt and his ilk) — his naive and bewildering comments in Europe, combined with his Unification Minister’s comments that Republican and Democrat alike may find treacherous and morally repugnant, may have actually provided hardline voices in the U.S. even more ammunition in their arguments that the current South Korean administration perceives its interests in ways that are incompatible with U.S. interests.
17 Comments
The only way for unification without regime change in the North is for the South to surrender. I realized that was the goal all along, if not for those damn Yankee Imperialists.
I have always thought that Roh just had a big mouth and that he can’t control the urge to say whatever is on his mind at the time, to the much detriment of Korea. Now I’m not so sure. Maybe he really does these things with the full intent to take on the United States with an antagonistic attitude. On the surface, I guess there’s nothing wrong with challenging the US on an important position that affects the Korean peninsula. But you cannot possibly have an “equal relationship” when you rely on 32,000 troops from the United States for defense aid. Look at France, they are booed and and they are disdained in the US for uncooperation. But at least France can hold their heads high knowing that they don’t depend on US troops.
Roh and Korea has to get real. S.Korea has no real control over what is going on. It has always been the big powers (US, China, Japan, Russia) who have (and always will) who will decide the futre of Korea. As much as it pains me to say this, neverthless, that is the truth. Trying to look like a big player and trying to play a big role on North Korea is just not a realistic policy, only a foolhardy policy. Unfortunately that’s what most of South Koreans believe in. The best that South Korea could do is to act the traditional role, just shut the fuck up and follow the US lead (which where the future lies).
Roh’s protestations probably played well in Paris, but they are merely out-of-touch, idle banter until he demonstrates that South Korea has even the slightest of clout with North Korea and, most importantly, is willing to use it. So far, it is hard to say honestly that South Korea has gotten anything from all its Northbound bribes, largesse, genuine goodwill projects, etc. Despite the fact that it has won every important South-North competition hands down since the 1980s, Seoul looks pathetic when it tries to portray even its relationship with Pyongyang as one among equals. Generally, the North says “jump!” and the South says “how high?, while commending the North for its polite tone in issuing the demand.
I think the title of your piece is dead on.
Roh and the society he is leading don’t seem to grasp the equations at play.
First, saying “only Korean lives” are at stake is a huge bleeping slap in the face of not only the 37,000 GIs willing to fight and die for Korea (at the behest of the US government), but the over hundred thousand that would be needed to win a second Korean War. It is a direct insult to the US committment to Korea.
Secondly, they seem oblivious to the fact that they are NOT the center of the problem. The North doesn’t have its eye set on winning concessions from the South. The South already has its head squarely up Kim Jong Il’s rump. Even China is a bigger player for the North than the South. But above all….by far….the regime in Pyongyang has its desire set on concessions from the United States - period — and I think we can add they also have their eyes set on keeping a few nukes too regardless of what economic concessions it wants.
Regardless, the US is the prize. And South Korea can’t force/pressure the United States to give concessions to the North.
All this public stabbing of thumbs in the eyes of the US administration isn’t going to win Washington over to the South Korean point of view.
It is just going to push the US further along in its thoughts about cutting down (and hopefully eliminating) our exposure to the defense of South Korea.
The message on the wall should have become glaringly impossible not to read.
The South is running into the arms of the North but can’t deliver the goods.
And it is running away from the US at a rate that isn’t healthy.
The South can provide for its own defense over time if it put a major effort in building up its military, but it hasn’t shown the willingness to do so.
So kicking the US out by showing them how badly you want to work against US perceived interests isn’t the smartest thing I’ve every witnessed.
the day South Korea convinces North Korea to close a single death camp, is the day I’ll support Noh and the sunshin policy
the day South Korea saves 1 north korean family from the death camps, is the day I’ll support Noh and the sunshine policy
the day South Korea saves 1 North Korean life from political prisons, is the day ill support Noh and the sunshine policy
All I can say is, Roh is one clueless man, frustrating for me. Makes S. Korea look more and more like a chicken walking without is head.
I have always found it a dichotomy that the “Sunshine policy” was more about keeping the status quo that unification.
Roh’s Warsaw Peace Resolution
Hankyoreh wraps an early Xmas gift for SK conservatives, but no doubt this cheery missive will land under the Bush administration’s tree, too: Some hardliners in Korea and abroad would use war and violence to achieve peace, and we would…
I just read this from the Hankooki.com (http://times.hankooki.com/lpag.....310580.htm) quote:
South Korea Isolated in Opposing NK Regime Change: US Expert
By Reuben Staines, Park Song-wu
Staff Reporters
President Roh Moo-hyun?€™s government is alone in its opposition to regime change in North Korea, according to a former U.S. official who played a key role in drafting the recently enacted North Korean Human Rights Act.
Michael Horowitz, now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., claimed that all of the other countries engaged in the six-party nuclear talks with North Korea are preparing for the inevitable collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime, while Roh continues to live in denial.
He (Roh) is making love to a corpse,?€™?€™ said Horowitz, who was in Seoul to participate in a seminar hosted Tuesday by Save North Korea, a local Christian group. “Only Roh Moo-hyun, so far as I am concerned, is out there working for and acting on this strategic premise that we can keep this lunatic regime in power.”
- - - - - - -
It kind of says it all, doesn’t it?
It seems to astound analysts that people like Roh and DJ appear to be betraying Korean national interests by favoring North Korea and China while alienating the US, the only real stabilizing foreign influence with no real designs on the peninsula. But the answer might be much simpler than the logic of national interests - personal interests.
No significant amount of money seems to ever change hands in Korea without some sort of kickback to the middleman. It is highly probable that those who are dealing with the North are enriching themselves at the expense of national interests. This simple logic could explain the otherwise apparently irrational public statements and policies of Roh and others.
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