Comments on: Tear Down This Tyranny — When Neocons Attack!

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Tear Down This Tyranny…

By: Discarded Lies

Discarded Lies — Sun, 28 Nov 2004 00:23:23 +0000

The Neocons And North Korea
The Marmot analyses a Weekly Standard piece that purports to read the neocon tea leaves, and see an imposed regime change in Korea’s near future……

By: Won Joon Choe

Won Joon Choe — Sat, 27 Nov 2004 08:00:53 +0000

Where is Paul’s Blog? Can someone refer me to the URL? Thanks.

By: Leo Buchignani

Leo Buchignani — Sat, 27 Nov 2004 01:51:47 +0000

Can’t we simply fail to bail Kim out? That regimes been begging to collapse for some time now, propped up only by international aid. Why not just find other uses for the money?

By: Simon World

Simon World — Fri, 26 Nov 2004 00:40:32 +0000

Asia by Blog
Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Previous editions can be found here. This edition contains HK’s ripoff Disneyland, potential …

By: Paul H.

Paul H. — Thu, 25 Nov 2004 23:37:48 +0000

After reading the last few posts, it occurs to me that I ought to state one of my standard assumptions, which is that the capacity of the North Korean regime and its people to continue to endure at current bare subsistence levels is practically limitless.

It appears that as long as they actually don’t start a war they are guaranteed to get enough foodstuffs and supplies from various members of “the six parties” to keep the mass of their people minimally productive, while they gather in enough foreign exchange from their various “export” activities to sustain the party elites and the military/nuclear program in a manner sufficient to ensure their continued support.

Talk by learned Washington types about regime change seems laughable absent a serious effort to cut off this support (or force the Chinese to assume the entire burden of it). I’ve read what I can in English about DPRK (and I’ve seen some TV documentaries here in the US — one of the Discovery channels, on high number cable, has done some detailed (and horrifying) documentaries on NorK, using smuggled video and interviews with NorK defectors).

From what I can see NorK seems still to be totally oppressed in a Stalinist grip of steel (Stalin died in his bed, remember); any hope of internal change assuming the continued “status quo”, must be at least a decade away.

As long as we & Japan & ROK (Russia too?) ship immense quantities of food in, they will be able to keep going. The fact that we weren’t even serious enough to keep that cargo of NorK Scud missiles destined for Yemen (when the Spanish Navy stopped it, prior to Gulf War II) means that we are far from being serious about “regime change” and that any talk of this is so much rhetoric.

A serious effort at regime change would involve a cut off of supplies from US/ROK/Japan, and a sea blockade of NorK “contraband” exports (is there anything NorK exports which is “legal”, ie not drugs or missiles & missile components?)

This would force China to assume total support or acquiese in the fall of the regime. Of course any serious attempt to implement this would bring about mass hysteria in ROK, which is why I think it is never going to happen (and why articles like Eberstadt’s are just so many words).

Therefore it seems logical to me to wash our hands of the matter. Perhaps a US withdrawl would end up helping matters as NorK and ROK draw closer together — short of outright war, I don’t see how things can get any worse. I think NorK will continue to assemble nukes and upgrade its military as it resources permit, and that the ROK will not be willing to do anything about this but wring its hands while keeping up the flow of supplies and money.

Why not be honest with ourselves & the ROK and just acknowledge this? Nothing seems more futile and tiresome than blustering about “regime change” — ROK is not interested.

By: The Marmot

The Marmot — Thu, 25 Nov 2004 13:15:24 +0000

I agree with you for the most part here, kimbob, in the sense that if Seoul continues to bankroll North Korea, Pyongyang is going to be less inclined to cutting a deal with Washington over the nukes, in which case, you’re right, that does make a war more likely to happen. What I’m still wondering, however, is if the U.S. puts on the pressure not so much with the aim of getting a deal on the nukes, but with the intention of bringing down the North Korean regime. As Nick Eberstadt pointed out, the nukes and the regime are one and the same. ???????¶???´. If this is the assumption Washington is operating under, Seoul’s North Korea policy won’t have the slightest effect on the outcome of the situation. Frankly, I’m still trying to figure out what I think about this. Big Nick might be right — North Korea may need an external crisis to keep the nation at a 24/7 war footing so as to justify the material deprivations the North Korean people must endure under a regime incapable of making basic socio-economic changes. Unfortunate, but quite possible true. But if this is the case, it makes co-existence very, very difficult, because the key to making such a system work is to provoke one crisis after the other without provoking the BIG ONE that prompts the other guys to invade. Needless to say, this makes life very hard on its neighbors, and you never know when it’ll misjudge in a way that cannot be ignored.

By: kimbob

kimbob — Thu, 25 Nov 2004 11:31:29 +0000

“That being said, how many of those people would actually want to create conditions that would make the conflict come closer to becoming a reality?”

And it’s those same group of people who fear that creating those conditions to make the conflict come closer to reality, will create another war in Korea. It’s times like these when you need a strong capable leadership that would steer those people to do what must be done. Much like what Winston Churchill did during WWII, with that famous speech “we have nothing to fear but fear itself”. South Korea doesn’t have that kind of leadership unfortunately, thus the utter confusion that you see today.