President Roh Moo-Hyun speaks at a breakfast meeting held by the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles, on Saturday(Korean time). Roh is scheduled to hold a summit with U.S. President George W. Bush on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Chile on Nov. 20 and 21. /Yonhap (via Chosun Ilbo)
Speaking in Los Angeles, President Roh took the opportunity to remove from the table two negotiating tools, the first being the use of force (or threat thereof):
LOS ANGELES — President Roh Moo-hyun has expressed strong opposition to the possible imposition of sanctions or military strikes against North Korea, stressing that the current standoff over the North’s nuclear weapons program should be resolved peacefully through the six-party dialogue.
“The use of force lacks effectiveness as a negotiation tactic. I believe the United States, which has greatly contributed to the national economic development, will well understand this,” Roh said during a lecture at the World Affairs Council (WAC), a research organization in Los Angeles, Friday.
It the first comment Roh has made regarding the security issue on the Korean peninsula since U.S. President George W. Bush’s re-election earlier this month.
The second was sanctions (or the threat thereof):
President Roh opposed any possible imposition of sanctions, including an (economic) embargo, against the North by the U.S. and other parties, describing it as “not desirable.”
“Such an (embargo) will only prolong the sense of instability and threat indefinitely. The nuclear issue should be settled through the six-party talks,” he said.
Well, gee Mr. Roh, what are we supposed to use in those talks now? Strong language?
Anyway, read more about Mr. Roh’s opinions on reform in North Korea and Pyongyang’s nuclear motivations here and here.
Meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush is apparently “looking forward to meeting President Roh” when the two get together for a sideline chat at the APEC summit in Santiago, Chile Nov. 20-21. Yeah, I’d bet he’s really looking forward to that meeting now.
Luckily for Roh, no matter how much of headache he presents, the U.S. would never bail out on Seoul because of the strategic importance of the Korean Peninsula. We know this because Roh told us himself.
Also, in case you hadn’t heard, apparently, North Korea is warming up to the prospects of restarting the six-party talks.
15 Comments
I’ll have to agree with you on this one Michael. Roh is guilty of what I call “Kogressivism” (Korean “progressivism”) - an emotional form of wishful thinking that attempts to reconstruct history from an ideological perspective by ignoring problems away in the hope that it was all a dream.
Maybe it was all a dream - starting with the division of Korea due to post WWII Soviet hedgonomy that insisted on separate elections in the North and South, the invasion by the North and then by China, the economic miracle accomplished by the dffective discipline of authoritarian rule, the US’s championing of the Korean economy democratic freedoms.
Maybe the house that Park built won’t come tumbling down if we continue to focus on rewriting history rather than rebuilding the economy. Maybe the current financial downturn and continuing loss of economic competitiveness are all dreams to be wished away by right ideology. Maybe, as in religion, just believing it makes it true. Let’s hope so, for Korea’s sake, because Roh is putting all his eggs in that basket.
Yeah, I suppose Syngman Rhee and Pak Chung-hee he definitely is not. Then again, what would you expect from someone who was elected via popular vote in Korea nowadays? Why would he not like to use threat of force as a bargaining tool? Maybe because you have to back it up! Is it really in the ROK’s interest to go to war if need be? I’m not so convinced.
What’s especially pathetic is that the next liberal presidential candidate is going to win if the GNP keeps up with its childish petty games and if it nominates one of those “old establishment” conservatives (like Lee Hoi Chang) instead of someone who talks sense.
I don’t think its in the best interest in the ROK to go to war. For that matter, I’m not so sure its in the US’s best interest, either. That’s not the point. You don’t rule out two possible diplomatic tools even before the talks begin. Those things are bargaining chips, and you leave it up to the North Koreans to guess whether you’re willing to use them or not. Besides, Roh has a summit scheduled with Bush coming up, and while it’s all fine and good to state your views publically like that, what happens if he can’t convince Washington of those views? If he can’t, he’s essentially set himself up for a massive diplomatic slap in the face, one that would do neither the US or ROK very much good.
I probably differ from you, Marmot, and a good number of other people familiar with South Korea about it being a “necessary ally” to the US.
I wrote about this on my blog. I think the re-election of Bush is a mega-huge event for South Korea. The Bush team, including Def. Dept. and military leaders, clearly want to limit US exposure to South Korea - not for geo-political or economic reasons - but to create geo-military flexibility they believe is much more necessary to the United States than guarranteeing absolutely (well, 95%) that North Korea won’t invade again by keeping a static force in the South.
And they just got the crucial four more years, and with the narrow margins of victory in the pres race in 2004 and 2000, they can’t count on 8 years to get this done. Plus, joy of all joys for them, they gained crucial seats in the Senate and increased in the House, so they have a better chance in Congress to put through changes in USFK that can’t be altered easily by whoever wins the White House in 2008.
I don’t know how much the 2nd term Bush administration will cut USFK. I think all ground and air forces in country leaving IS on the table. I doubt very, very seriously the US will stop at the current 12,000 troop cutback that was announced before the reelection.
I believe the current people running the show in the US not only believe South Korea is capable of using their superior economy and manpower and technology to defend themselves, but they believe South Korea is too big an albatross on the US military, and they will now conclude they have the political capital in the US government (and society) to push through unalterable, fundamental changes in the US-SK alliance.
My wild bet right now is that either a minor token force will be left in country or all USFK will be on the way out within 5 to 10 years with a promise to “help out” in a potential Korean War II — the help being a stratgic ambiguity like we do with Taiwan.
South Korea is not the key to northeast Asia. Its economy is important, but it aint nearly as “crucial” as we too often make out. Korea is important more as an economic “domino.” The ultimate fear is that a major plunge in South Korea will sink Japan much further into the economic dulldrums than it has been in for the past decade. Also, the fear is that a SK fundamental collapse will slam lead to a slamming on of the breaks in the economy in China —- and then to all of Asia and felt around the world.
But, I believe when push comes to shove, when these people with the knowledge sit down and calculate it, they will conclude the global community can counter-act these potential doomsday potentials — that “if they have to” they can isolate the impact of a Korea War II.
They would rather remain in the comfort of the staus quo, but I believe the guys in the Bush administration would rather take their chances with the evil conseqences they fear rather than settle for a geo-security situation they believe is the major threat to the US
Good point about the bargaining chips, Marmot…but remember: there might come a time when the SKs have to back that up!
I just think that the NKs already know what Roh is willing to do and what he’s NOT willing to do…I mean, Roh Moo-Hyun: Commander in Chief of the SK Invasion Forces Marching North?? That’s a joke, and everyone knows it. I can’t imagine that kind of politics emerging in SK nowadays. At least the guy was speaking his feeble mind. Would it be better if he backed a military strike, then (inevitably) took it off the table when things got too hot? Basically, I’m not really sure if tough posturing really pressures the North to get what we want from them. It seems they are the ones to get what they want from us when the pressure gets ratcheted up.
The one thing USinKorea doesn’t mention, but gives even more force to his argument, is the Iranian drive toward the bomb. Once they come on line with nukes, the world situation will become even more dangerous. Dispassionate political science logic will argue even more for the withdrawl of the “hostage” US ground forces from the peninsula, particularly if NorK and Iran have mastered “miniaturization” of nuclear warheads. And I don’t see why they can’t, as such technology is now almost 50 years old. By all accounts the Chinese got it from our own insanely security-lax nuclear weapons labs, and given the “free-enterprise” of the AQ Khan network it’s just a matter of time before NorK and Iran develop this ability as well.
On Paul’s point, one key thing to recognize between Iran and North Korea (and how it effects SK’s relationship with the US) is that Iran is “do-able” while North Korea is not. Israel will back and even put pressure on the US to take Iran out if it goes nuclear, and no coalition of Middle Eastern nations and backers from outside the region will be able to stop it. Worse case, we could have crippling oil sanctions like in the 1970s, but that will hurt fragile kingdoms like the one in Saudi Arabia too, more so than with the US, because we have a more stable political system. Ontheotherhand, we can’t take North Korea out because our key allies in the region won’t help and we can’t afford great damage to Japan. So, the guys wanting to change USFK are also playing a “let’s cut our losses” game, removing troops constantly under danger to free them up for real, potential combat in the primary key area for the US.
And on Mark’s point, I’ve been saying that for a few years now. North Korea is a basketcase nation, but, really, the regime has been successful in limiting its exposure to the outside world. The regime is more than willing to let the nation as a whole suffer greatly, as long as they stay in power.
We could strangle them out of power if the world community would agree, but key players won’t (China, South Korea, and then eventually Japan).
And North Korea pretty much knows the US can’t/won’t attack. In my opinion, Clinton and crew made it “look real” in the early 1990s, but I believe it was 98% bluffing. And as I said, the bluff was a good one, but even though people bought into the idea the US was about to attack the North without even telling South Korea, it didn’t work. The Clinton team ended up cutting a bad deal to prevent having to show its cards and thus confirming for Pyongyang that we were never really prepared to pull the trigger.
I believe the Bush team will seriously, and I think very seriously, cut our exposure to South Korea to a bare minimum (or they will at least attempt to) and formulate a lasting policy of letting North Korea know that if they invade the South or sell nuclear material/weapons to another nation or group, we will unleash all our power on them —- again, something like the strategic ambiguity we use with China on Taiwan. We say we’ll defend Taiwan, but we don’t spell out how, and I truly believe we would not fight China for Taiwan, but we are good at making people believe we would.
And lastly, I think the best policy for the US on dealing with North Korea is keeping up the kind of pressure we’ve seen for the last few years, but put our primary hope on covert ops —
—- mainly I’m thinking of infiltrating the North with as much information about the outside world as we possibly can. The regime is corrupt, brutal, and inept at funtioning for the society as a whole. The people can’t be blind to the fact their suffering is in large part due to their leaders - no matter how much propaganda they feed them from birth. They might hate the US more, but they can’t mistake their government for a good one. And the propaganda from birth can work in our favor big time if we can’t put the covert resources in country. Knowledge of the outside world will be shocking to North Korean’s bred on ignorance of the world. Pumping in knowledge can lead to a volcano in North Korea, I think…….
Roh is either stunningly naive, or disingenuous and playing the norks off the U.S., for whatever return he fantasizes that will bring. I doubt it’s the latter.
There’s a lot of fantasizing in this government–that moving state government offices to the sticks will “balance” development, that “redistributing” wealth will make society more equitable, that Kim Jong-ill’s regime is a downtrodden underdog…Koreans deserve better.
usinkorea,
Are you Mr. Ben Eller?
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Time for the U.S. to get out of Korea. Our interests and the SK’s fundamentally differ. Roh is just expressing that reality. We want to stop the Morth from getting nukes. For the South keeping NK artillery from flattening Seoul is far more important than Krazy Kim Jong Il getting nukes. After all whether you die from nukes or convential artillery, dead is dead. Koreans being Koreans I honestly don’t think they care whether the North would sell its nuclear weapons to Islamic terrorists.
Noh and the Koreans are pursuing their best interests. I can’t really blame them for that BUT they should do it on their own dime. Get our troops out so that we have more options, military or otherwise, and so that we can pursue our best interests as well.
To Won Joon Choe,
No. I’m not Ben Eller. Honestly.
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