Chinese Type 98 Main Battle Tank/GlobalSecurity.org
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Kim Jong-hwan testified before the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee on Tuesday that in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, China would send 400,000 men to support North Korea. Asked by Uri Party lawmaker Im “If It Ain’t Ansan, It Ain’t Shit” Jong-in (see previous post) how much support he expected North Korea to receive in accordance with Pyongyang’s defense pacts with China and Russia, Kim answered that in the case of China, it would dispatch a limited number of military personnel in accordance with Article 2 of its mutual defense pact with North Korea, which calls for the automatic insertion of men in the event of a conflict. Russia, however, which canceled its automatic participation clause with Pyongyang in February 2000, was expected to send limited support.
Yonhap went on to say South Korean military authorities estimated China would dispatch 18 divisions — roughly 400,000 men — 800 aircraft and 150 ships to the peninsula. More specifically, they predict China would deploy 60 percent of the fighting strength of the Shenyang Military District (448,000 men, 1000 aircraft), 50 percent of the fighting strength of the Jinan Military District (256,000 men, 650 aircraft), and 30 percent of the Chinese Northern Fleet (518 ships) to North Korea.
Kim also explained that under normal circumstance, the combined ROK-U.S. standing force of 720,000 men amounted to 61 percent of the the standing North Korean force of 1.17 million men. In a war, however, North Korea would bring up its 6.32 million man reserve, which is roughly the same quality as its standing force, and the size of allied forces would drop to 59 percent of the North Korean’s. He added that the size of U.S. reinforcements was included in an appendage to OPLAN 5027-04, and deployment details were being developed by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
[NOTE]: OPLAN 5027-00 called for 690,000 troops, 160 Navy ships and 1,600 aircraft to be deployed from the U.S. within 90 days of the start of a conflict. And Kim wasn’t bullshitting about the size of that N. Korean reserve force. According to GlobalSecurity.org:
North Korea has organized a grand total of seven million men and women into reserve units. Reserve Military Training Unit, Worker-Peasant Militia, and the Young Red Guards make up most of the number. The units are managed by the Party Civil Defense Department in peacetime, but are placed under the Ministry of Defense in contingencies. War mobilization measures usually assign Reserve Military Training Unit to the front or regional defense in war, while the other two units are assigned to maintain security in the rear, guard duty for important facilities, etc. About 30% of all North Koreans between the ages fifteen to sixty are mobilized for reserve units:
I couldn’t find information on just how many reservists South Korea could call up in an emergency, but given the fact that a) South Korea has twice the population of North Korea; b) the overwhelming majority of the adult male population has served in the military; and c) a wartime allied force would still amount to 59 percent of the N. Korean force even after Pyongyang had mobilized its 6 million-plus reserves, I’d have to believe it’s a lot.[END NOTE]
As to the afore mentioned artillery threat, Kim explained that of North Korea’s roughly 1,000 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm MRLs, about 300 posed a threat to the Seoul metropolitan area. The self-propelled guns had a range of 54km, roughly the distance between Anyang and Seongnam, while the 240mm babies had ranges of 60km, roughly the distance between Incheon and Gunpo. The ammo used in the 240mm MRLs was for use primarily against personnel, so its ability to penetrate concrete was limited, Kim explained, but considering the shrapnel effect, he expected much damage to be done to apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area.
Other North Korean Peoples Army fun facts — Kim explained for lawmakers that the North Korean terms of military service was 10 years for men and 7 for women, and of its standing force of 1.17 million men, 180,000 (9 percent) were officers, while the remaining 990,000 (91 percent) were presumed to be of non-commissioned officer rank.
He added that North Korea’s T-54 and T-55 tanks, produced in the late 1960s and early 1970s, were probably in use, given their simple maintenance needs and North Korea’s continued production of parts. He also noted that North Korea’s ground-to-ground missile bases were well concealed in rugged mountain areas with mock bases set up in surrounding areas, and despite the fact that allied intelligence assets have North Korea under 24-hour surveillance, it’s tough to identify all of its missile bases.
28 Comments
I wouldn’t count too much on the ROK reservists. First they don’t train very hard for a very short time. All they’re interested in is just putting in the time so that they can go back to their real jobs. In case of war, Korea will need to somehow buy more time to retrain and reshape them into shape.
Oh, the 400,000 Chinese Troops are there not to help North Korea, but to stop the expected flood of refugee from the North.
t the GWU north Korea Blog, Kirk Larsen asked about the same question last month, so here’s my comment cross-posted:
“Kirk,
from the MND’s Participatory Government Defense Policy 2003, Chapter 4, Section D:
Based on the ?橫Local Reserve Forces Establishment Law??of 1961, the first Reserve Forces were created immediately after the armed infiltrators from
North Korea attempted an assault on Cheong Wa Dae (Presidential Residence) in January 1968. Since then, the Reserve Forces have played a pivotal role in deterring North Korea’s war provocations. Currently, the Reserve Forces stand at 3.04 million strong, organized into regional and workplace units. The MND, through the Army and Navy Headquarters, commands the Reserve Forces, and the Military Manpower Agency is responsible for maintenance of their structure. During peacetime, reservists receive regular education and training, while maintaining their ability to defend their homeland. During wartime, reservists become supplementary manpower to create new units, reinforcing the existing units and serving as replacements for combat losses.
The report (212 pg .pdf file) at http://www.mnd.go.kr/jungchaek.....in_eng.pdf
also has a nice chart of the breakdown of the reserves and the chain of command on pg 55.”
It is simply impossible that a country with North Korea’s economy could maintain a 7 million reserve force that was trained, equipped, and organized at “the same level” as their 1.2 million man regular force. A count of 7 million is attained only if all the peasants and workers militias, and student military training units, are included. The challenge is to separate out the organized reserve military forces from paramilitary support forces, which appear to be a large slice of their reserves. Granted, 15 year old guerrillas with an AK-47 and two weeks of training have ended the careers of some hairy-chested special warriors with a single burst. But that same 15 year old cannot easily step into a tank turret, gun crew, or even light infantry squad, without further serious and intensive training that requires both time and resources.
Global security should do more than report information. A little analysis would be helpful.
It’s all happening
There’s plenty of interesting Korea news at the moment and it can’t wait for the next Asia by Blog. Marmot comprehensively covers reports that China would send up to 400,000 troops to support North Korea in a war, including the US plan that called fo…
Who’s side is China on?
Apparently, North Korea. Marmot reports that China “would send 400,000 men to support North Korea” if war on the Korean peninsular is resumed. US, on the other hand, is prepared to send around 700…
all very interesting. now would someone explain to me why china would risk war with some of its most lucrative trading partners (u.s.a., south korea, japan, etc) defending an embarrassing remnant (north korea)of its revolutionary past? seems to me if push comes to shove china will help in taking out the kim regime simply to stabilize the region and get on with developing its economy.
In the midst of sturm und drang about Korean war, bellicose China propping up Stalinist Kim, let us cast our eyes across the peaceful Sea of Korea towards Japan, where we learn:
“PM Koizumi said…Japan should study acquiring pre-emptive strike capability,” in a report..the basis for new defence guidelines to be drawn up, end of the year.
Keep those rifles cocked and facing East instead.
China would send troops because it has a treaty. They would have to weigh their word and strategic objectives vs. economics. This treaty would make a very powerful bargaining chip with North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons. China could extend the treaty in return for North Korea giving up its Nukes and goodies from Japan, S. Korea, and the US. Another reason for the six way talks.
My biggest worry isn’t a reluctant China forced by treaty obligation into sending troops into Korean War II… The Chinese Communist Party are simply too steely-eyed a group of realists too ever throw their lot - economy, son’s futures, bright future prospects - in with what they regard as their bizarre client state in the northeast. It’s as ridiculous as assuming that America would risk total destruction to save Panama. I’m sure in one of the many vassal conversations Kim JongIl has had with the CCP politburo when they summon him, this has been made very clear to him.
No, the real worry is this. I called them a group of realists above, but everyone has their illogical blind spot. And Taiwan is China’s. A simultaneous Chinese invasion of Taiwan/North Korean invasion of South Korea has to keep U.S. planners up at night, as it metaphorically does me. Add in the vast number of US forces tied down in Iraq and …. sigh. Conventionally defeated, the only recourses for America might be 1) humiliating acceptance of the loss of South Korea and Taiwan, or 2) limited use of nuclear weapons.
Oh boy. Am I the only one who feels nervous when I read in the paper that Kim Jong Il has made another secret train visit to Beijing to talk to his masters?
Having brought up Globalsecurity.org in a previous post, I can only commend you for citing it, but I now must join Lirelou in making a selective criticism of some of what they say.
For example, in the piece on the NorK self-propelled 170mm gun, they say:
“Large caliber self propelled artillery pieces typically have a sustained rate of fire of between four and eight rounds per minute.”
Yet down at the bottom, in the specifications chart, they also say:
Max Rate of Fire 1-2 rds per 5 min (estimate)
I wasn’t an artilleryman, but I paid enough attention to my artillery classes to know that the latter citation is the realistic one.
A smaller caliber artillery piece with “fixed” ammuntion (such as the US 105mm) might be able to do several rounds in the first minute of firing, but I don’t think a “sustained” rate for any tube cannon artillery piece can be more than 1 round per minute (and the bigger the caliber, the slower the sustained rate).
The really big guns use semi-fixed ammunition (the shell must be loaded separately from the propellant, with the use of a power assist to ram the shell in the breech in some cases).
It is physically impossible to load and fire these things like an automatic rifle. Also the barrels have to be allowed to cool; try putting your hand on a rifle barrel after even a single round has been fired out of it. Forcing the rate of fire means that the barrel will warp and the round will “corkscrew” going downrange, plus there is a danger that the propellant will “cook off” before the crew has been able finish the loading procedure and close the breech (much less aim).
Achieving the 60 km range cited by the general for the 170mm involves the use of “RAP” (rocket-assisted projectiles) (see the aforementioned range chart). RAP is the affixing of a solid propellant to the base of the shell (to supplement the normal bags of propellant loaded separately). I think I remember that this heats the barrel even more than usual, with a consequent further reduction of the rate of fire. The laws of physics have to be respected; what is gained in one area has to be paid for in another, and such laws are impervious to even the NorK brand of ideological exhortation.
Theoretical “maximum” rates of fire of any direct or indirect-fire weapon are just a mechanical measurement and have nothing to do with the practical realities involved in their gun crews firing them over time in a sustained engagement. The various posts cited at Global Security do seem to attempt to make this larger point, though I think they get some of the details wrong.
The 240mm MRL is also a natural for dumping gas.
The Soviets depended mainly on MRL’s for their gas warfare, and those 240’s would have a good capacity for this.
The explosive power of these things aren’t as useful for terror warfare as their potential with nerve gas. They would reload slowly and as rockets they are wasteful of munitions resources for ordinary bombardment, so sustained fire to destroy Seoul by bombardment probably wouldn’t be their optimum role.
The 400,000 number is much too high. A more realistic number is four to six divisions. China had two divisions ready to move into north Korea to support them in 94 when Clinton was planning on bombing the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon according to Oberdorfer in “The Two Koreas.”
Two things most folks miss on this. First, the Chinese Military has total control over national defense. That means that they act first in that role, even in opposition to the civilian government. Second, the majority of China’s military was trained by officers and senior enlisted that fought the US in Korea. They are quite proud of their war trophies and accomplishments in Korea which has made them basically include north Korea as part of their defense. This is not likely going to change.
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Kimbob
Reservists might not be well armed or well trained, but if you remember WW2 and the Korean war you will know that Russia and North Korea used Human waves to overwhelm their opponents, the rule goes that if you can put your troops in faster than the enemy can kill them, then they will either ru out of munitions and be overrun or that they will be swamped by shear weight of numbers.
Also, I don’t know how good South Korean troops are, but US troops are renenound to be lacking in disipline and to be over reliant on their technology, in the face of a million North Koreans who are going to be shot if they run fowards and if they run backwards, and so will fight VERY hard, then your looking at a lot of dead Americans.
Some serious blogging going on in Kland
While I have been dorking around with the US election, some of my fellow IKK members have been doing yeoman’s work bring us the goods on the situation in Korea. Some of this stuff is so good that I feel
china isn?t strong enough to handle our military. sending a small amount of forces against us accounts as an act of war and may lead to an escalation that sees our troops on their soil. from the lessons learned category of the first korean war.. we won?t honor their borders and not bomb their bases in china like the last time. we?ll bring the war straight to bejing this time and they know it. cruise missiles will cover china and destroy their wonderful economy and foreign direct investment. they have nothing to win and everything to lose by doing this.
400,000 MEN.
Thank God for that!
We can knock of another 400,000 Chinese MEN and get on with things.
LoL captain Scarlett, I see you subscribe to the neoconservative school of thought where war has no reprecussions. Even if war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, the most likely occurance will be a repeat of 1951. There will be no U.S. forces staging attacks into China simply because no U.S. government could not stomach escalating the war. For one thing, it would be against U.S. interests, for another, it would put South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan under immediate military risk. You maybe willing to risk an engagement with a nuclear armed power, but I doubt your Japanese allies would be so keen at the prospect of a retaliatory strike of hundreds of IRBM’s launched at Tokyo if the war escalated to such a point.
Amusing to see the conservative warhawks circle-jerk themselves up into a frenzy over their self-avowed military prowress, but the truth is, in this day and age, a full scale confrontation between nuclear armed states leaves no victors, only certain degrees of losers. Such a incident will not happen unless there are major blunders on all sides.
Jing,
That is the precise reason why the Chinese will not save North Korea. China has too much to lose. This is not 1951.
You have a point there. North Korea although an ally still, is more of a liability on long term Chinese interests than it is a benefit. To a certain degree, North Korea is somewhat of an embarassment, a horrible mistake as if it where a continuous cultural revolution. China may in the end not intervene in North Korea if it re-evaluates its priorities. It has been long debated within the communist party itself whether intervening in the Korea war was the proper choice of action. Eventually though Mao won out on the debate, and China commited itself in the ideological struggle of communism and putting thought to action. However, at the time, there were a number of objections raised by other senior party members about getting involved in Korea at all, figuring that an invasion of Taiwan was the better choice of action since it was of primary interests. It wouldn’t be surprising if China does sacrifice the DPRK in exchange for U.S. concessions over the Taiwan straits issue this time around.
Personally, I think this all comes down to whether or not China deploys those Overlord Tanks like they got in CNC Generals. Get five or so of those babies with Gatling gun and propoganda tower upgrades into the other guy’s base and he’s fucked.
jing,
i never fight the last war. come on.. that is warfighting 101. you missed the entire point i made so i will not even bother discussing it with you.
Given the many-leveled damage that another Korean War would do to China (incl. the possibility of nuclear exchanges on China’s doorstep these days), I can believe that China would send 400k troops to North Korea once the war started.
I would be even more interested in seeing what they did when they got there. It might not be what Crazy Kim thinks.
“Also, I don??t know how good South Korean troops are, but US troops are renenound to be lacking in disipline and to be over reliant on their technology,”
That has been the knock on American troops in every war in our history. Its precisely what the Kaiser thought, what Rommel thought, and what Hussein thought. Its BS. US troops have trained to fight the war in question for 50 years. The terrain is a very narrow front which would constrict NK peasants with rusted, outdated weapons to come storming into the worlds biggest den of landmines, artillery, and machine guns. To paraphrase James Longstreet, you give them enough ammunition and theyll kill every one of them before they reach the lines.
And assuming NKs troops are remotely equivalent in quality to SK is a joke, particularly reservists. SK is one of the half dozen or so truly professional militaries left on the planet. It would be a bloodbath for the North, a disaster for SK civilians, and a slugfest for allied forces, but never remotely a danger of defeat. You have to understand that if you thought Western military hardware was amazing in the last couple wars, you havent seen it at work against masses of enemies charging against it, which is what _it was designed for_.
Look you guys aren’t thinking properly at this point you are not seeing the NUKES that Korea has and the target, Beijing and the 1/3 of Asian people that has to die and well the USA want Asians dead so well they will do the job well, N.Korea vs China, tiawan vs china and then all the other little countries going at it so even what you say it is all wrong, times have changed
US troops lacking disipline? HA! say that to Britin,Spain,Mexico,Germany,Italy,Japan,Afghanistan and Iraq, to much political bull shit got in our way during Vietnam and Korea to mess things up. Be carful what you say buddy.
US troops lacking disipline? HA! say that to Britin,Spain,Mexico,Germany,Italy,Japan,Afghanistan and Iraq, to much political bull shit got in our way during Vietnam and Korea to mess things up. Be carful what you say buddy.