UPDATE IX: More analysis of the Ryanggang explosion can be found in my next post here.
UPDATE VIII: A North Korean explanation! According to the BBC, North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun told visiting U.K. Foreign Office minister Bill Rammell that the huge explosion was “the deliberate demolition of a mountain as part of a hydro-electric project.”
*******
Whatever this is, it cannot be good:
SEOUL, South Korea - A large explosion occurred in the northern part of North Korea (news - web sites), sending a huge mushroom cloud into the air on an important anniversary of the communist regime, a South Korean news agency reported Sunday.
The Yonhap news agency, citing an unidentified source in Beijing, said the explosion happened Thursday in Yanggang province near the border with China. The explosion in Kim Hyong Jik county blasted a crater big enough to be noticed by a satellite, the source said.
“We understand that a mushroom-shaped cloud about 3.5 to 4 kilometers (about 2-2 1/2 miles) in diameter was monitored during the explosion,” Yonhap quoted an unidentified diplomatic source in Seoul as saying.
North Korea was founded Sept. 9, 1948. Leader Kim Jong Il uses the occasion to stage performances and other events to bolster loyalty among the impoverished North Korean population.
Experts have speculated that North Korea might use a major anniversary to conduct a nuclear-related test, though there was no immediate indication that Thursday’s reported explosion was linked to Pyongyang’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Kim Hyong Jik is reported to hold a major missile base. North Korea, which has a large missile arsenal and more than 1 million soldiers, is dotted with military installations.
More on this as news comes in.
PS: I apologize for the blog down time this weekend. My web hoster apparently suffered a major failure that took some time to repair. Everything appears to be working now, and I got what appears to be a free six months usage for the trouble, which was nice.
UPDATE: Not sure if this means anything, but back in 2002, NK Chosun mentioned that the site of the explosion, Kim Hyong-ik Country (sorry, still freaks me out the North Koreans would name cities and counties after people) was one of three places suspected of being a possible site for North Korea’s uranium enrichment program. In particular, they pointed out that in the mountainous village of Yongjo-ri, site of a North Korean Daepodong 1 & 2 missile base, underground facilities were being built. Korean-U.S. intelligence didn’t know what to make of them at the time, but they were concerned.
This is just something I figured I’d note since I came across it.
UPDATE II: Winds of Change is covering this as well.
UPDATE II: A U.S. official told CNN that whatever happened in North Korea was NOT a nuke blast. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young also said in a briefing today that he didn’t think the blast — if there was one — was related to a nuclear test. Personally, I don’t know what to believe at this point. I’d prefer to see some hard data, maybe even a satellite photo of what we’re talking about. Interesting quote from CNN, though:
The U.S. official said the cloud could be the result of a forest fire.
And we all remember how much the North Koreans love forest fires?
UPDATE III: The Korean government has confirmed that a large explosion did take place, and that the explosion was accompanied by a mushroom cloud. However, it appears that the explosion was NOT nuclear. Watching MBC news, the government apparently believes that given the fact that the explosion took place so close to the Chinese border (and you’d have to imagine that Beijing wouldn’t appreciate an above-ground nuclear test right on its border) and radiation levels were normal, the government was pretty certain it wasn’t a nuclear test. Apparently, the Americans are thinking along the same lines as well. The Chosun did point out, however, that there was no apparent lack of speculation as to what caused the explosion:
There is much talk about the cause of the explosion. The government official said, ???If a nuclear test causes an explosion, we can detect it by reading satellite data. Thus, the recent explosion in North Korea was not caused by a nuclear test.???? The intelligence authorities assume that an ammunition depot with over 1,000 tons of dynamite or an ammunition car may have exploded, or there may have been a chain explosion of chemical material or a big fire. Some Chinese sources argue that a massive explosion took pace in a munitions factory. Hong Sun-jik, director at the Hyundai Economic Institute said, ???Other than the assumption that it may be a simple accident that took place due to old facilities, we cannot exclude the possibility that the explosion may have taken place due to the lack of control of the Kim Jong-il regime, or it may have been connected to a secret feud over the successor of Kim Jong-il following the rumor of death of Kim?????s wife, Ko Young-hee.????
Also, some strongly argue that it is not a simple accident because it took place on Sept.9, the North?????s foundation day, which is considered a very important national holiday. Others argue that with Korea?????s nuclear experiments in the past at issue in the international community, it could be a false explosion by North Korea to intensify the Korea?????s nuclear issue. In other words, the North intentionally caused the explosion to deliver a message to the international community.
Well, something big must have happened, that’s for sure. The Chosun also has a satellite photo of the area, indicating Kim Hyong-jik County, Yongjo-ri, and the railroads in the area.
UPDATE IV: Wizbang wonders:
China wanted Hong Kong pretty badly, maybe we can talk them into annexing North Korea - by force.
Given the mess over Koguryo, I wouldn’t joke about shit like that. And I sure as hell wouldn’t be suggesting it, openly or otherwise.
UPDATE V: As reported before, the rumor mill is running on overdrive. Yonhap News (Korean) has a basic compilation that I shall summarize below (map to right ripped off from Korea Times):
– One Chinese source familiar with North Korea said that while people are saying that the explosion took place around 11:00 a.m. Thursday, this was only the time when satellites picked up the smoke from the explosion. He understood that a neighboring country observed signs that two explosions had taken place between 11:30 p.m. Wednesday and 1:00 a.m. Thursday. He didn’t say what caused the explosions, however.
– Another source said that earthquake authorities in neighboring countries had detected a smoke in the shape of a mushroom cloud 3.5km in diameter. He also said that it didn’t appear to be a nuclear test, but wondered if it might have been an arms factory or arms depot going up in (a lot of) smoke. He added, however, that it didn’t appear to be purely an accident, pointing to the nearby Yongjo-ri Daepodong missile base. He said there was intelligence that trailers carrying Daepodong missiles had recently been discovered in the area, hinting that the explosion may have been missile-related. The source put emphasis on an arms factory exploding, however, pointing out that a weapons research center was nearby (everything you wanted to know about Ryanggang Province and were afraid to ask).
– Another Chinese source had heard rumors of the explosion, and said attention would focus on whether the explosion was a pure accident or had a political background, drawing attention to the fact that Kim Hong-jik County was virtually one big military facility.
– Others, taking into consideration that the event took place on Sept. 9 — the DPRK’s foundation day — are under the impression that this wasn’t an accident, and that the explosion was an intentional act aimed at conveying a message to the international community. Others refute that it was nuclear related, however, saying that given the proximity to the Chinese border, it was either a pure accident or a gesture disguised as an accident. Personally, from what I’ve seen so far, the only message this incident has conveyed to the international community is the same one conveyed in April’s Ryonchon Station explosion, i.e., North Korea is simply falling apart at the seams.
– Yonhap also cited a U.S. intelligence official who denied the claims of other sources concerning the mushroom cloud, pointing out that no witnesses of such a cloud had come forward from across the border in China. He suggested that talk of a 3.5km mushroom cloud may be exaggerations.
UPDATE VI: Colin Powell said it wasn’t nuclear, but at the same time, he wasn’t sure what the hell it was:
“There was no indication that was a nuclear event of any kind. Exactly what it was, we’re not sure,” Powell said on ABC’s “This Week.”
Now, in the midst of the confusion and rumors surrounding this event, I will answer the question I know has been on everyone’s mind since the story broke — who the fuck was Kim Hyong-jik? Well, he must have been a pretty righteous vanguard of the proletariat if the North Koreans named a county after him. Well, he just might have been, in addition to being late North Korean President Kim Il-sung’s dad:
Pyongyang, July 9 (KCNA) — July 10 is the 109th birth anniversary of Kim Hyong Jik, an indomitable revolutionary fighter. With the approach of this anniversary, a large number of people have visited his statues in different parts of the country. They look back with deep emotion the immortal feats he performed in the history of the Korean people’s anti-Japanese national liberation struggle. He embarked on the road of revolution in his early years and devoted his all to the independence of the country and the happiness of the people.
He convened the historic Pyongyang meeting on March 23, Juche 6 (1917) and formed the Korean national association, the largest underground revolutionary organization in Korea at that time. The anti-Japanese organization embraced Koreans at home and abroad.
Kim Hyong Jik put forward policies of the proletarian revolution, revolutionary armed activities, etc. and rallied broad segments of people in the anti-Japanese struggle.
He advanced the idea of “Jiwon” (aim high) that the liberation of the country should be achieved through struggle continued generation after generation. He, under the motto of “Jiwon”, brought up his children to be indomitable revolutionaries.
His idea was successfully materialized by President Kim Il Sung, his eldest son. The president liberated the country and built a powerful socialist state on this land.
The noble life and exploits of Kim Hyong Jik have always been kept in the memory of the Korean people.
His statues, museums and monuments were built in Kangdong county of Pyongyang, Sakju county of North Phyongan Province, Junggang county of Jagang Province and other places of the country associated with his revolutionary activities.
Schools, units and places were named after him. Among them are Kim Hyong Jik University of Education, Kim Hyong Jik Military Medical University, Kim Hyong Jik People’s Hospital and Kim Hyong Jik county.
Feature films including “The Green Pine Tree” and “Dawn” have been released and books published on the basis of his life and activities. “Green Pine Standing on Nam Hill,” “Song of Advance” and other songs created by him are still popular among the people.
Wikipedia, on the other hand, told a different tale:
Kim Hyonh Jik (died 1926?) was the father of the late North Korean dictator Kim Il-sung and the grandfather of the present dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong-il.
Not much is known about him. He was the son of Kim Bo Hyon, attended a school run by American missionaries, and became an herbal pharmacist. He was killed in a raid by Communists, but was later recast for propaganda purposes as an indefatigable Communist revolutionary fighter and a vanguard of the Communist movement who had been killed later.
Kim and his family were active in opposition to the Japanese, who controlled Korea at the time, and in 1920, when Kim Il-sung was seven, they fled to China for safety.
Believe what you want, although we do know that Kim Hyong-jik was a apparently a pretty good Presbyterian; the Great Leader’s mother was also a good Christian, and perhaps ironically enough (or maybe not so ironic, given the religous nature of the regime Kim Il-sung would build), the late leader’s entire family background appeares intertwined with Korean Christianity. Well, regardless of what Kim Hyong-jik’s story was or wasn’t, now you have something to tell your friends when they ask you about the guy whose name was given to the town in North Korea where the real big explosion was.
UPDATE VII: M. Simon has a run down on how one would go about determining whether such and such a boom-boom was nuclear or not. Meanwhile, for those thinking along the lines of a catastrophic explosion at an arms depot or the like, Trent Telenko at WOC gives us something we could use to compare:
This sounds like a major communist arms depot or rocket fuel factory going up.
The Soviet North Seas fleet lost it’s primary weapons storage depot in the late 1980’s when some of its ammunition went up either spontaniously or through incompetence and wiped out 80% of the North Seas Fleet’s ammunition.
Being as the majority of it was things like torpedos, cruise missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and rockets. The Fleet never again achieved combat readiness before the Soviet Union fell.
The blast that happened at an American solid rocket plant in the late 1980s or early 1990’s was near nuclear in size and it slowed Shuttle and TitanIV launches for six months due to a lack of solid rocket motor fuel.
Given what Scuds used as fuel, that mushroom cloud was likely pure poison made up of red fuming nitric acid and hydrazine.
Ouch.
37 Comments
Robert, we have more details and links over here if you’re interested. We’re going to try and stay on top of this one at winds of Change.NET, too.
You think the South Korea enrichment leaks noted in your Sept 10 “Eyes on Korea” briefing could have been the result of SK having some inkling that this might be coming? A final Asian-style indirect “back off” message?
Just heard from CNN that a US official said it wasn’t nuclear.
[...] The Marmot gets good news feeds in that hole of his. Hes a great source of updates on the DPRK explosion on the China [...]
[...] The Marmot gets good news feeds in that hole of his. Hes a great source of updates on the DPRK explosion on the China [...]
Didn’t this happen back on Thursday? If it was an accident, I think NK would have their pudgy little hands out for aid by now. Maybe Jeong-il just had an itchin to see somethin’ blown up real good.
Hi Marmot,
You might want to change this sentence (double negative).
However, it does not appear that the explosion was NOT nuclear.
Good job keeping the BS out of this post… you’re more reliable than the mainstream media right now. I also have a feeling that L’il Kim is just trying to get some attention. Keep us posted.
Update: N. Korea blast probably not nuclear.
Good to know, but what is it?
Read Robert’s post…
North Korean Explosion Redux
I was looking through my stats page (sorry, no public access) when I noticed a ridiculous amount of traffic to my post about the Ryongchon explosion, along with several search queries for various permutations of “north korea explosion.” “But that I …
Ambivalent Allies Withhold Info?
Of course the big Korea news over the weekend was the mysterious blast in north Korea along the Chinese border. The Marmot, The Nomad, Jodi at Asia Pages, The Big Hominid, The Yangban, and Jeff in Korea all have great
Large Mushroom Cloud Observed in North Korea
A reliable source in Seoul’s diplomatic community says Sunday a mushroom cloud with a radius of 3.5 to 4 kilometers was spotted in Kimhyongjik County in North Korea’s northernmost inland province of Yanggang on Sept. 9.
Explosion In North Korea
Reports coming from all points of the globe include speculation that the blast was possibly rocket propellant, or an ammunition depot, or a nuclear device, or a fire. Nobody knows for sure.
The Marmot gets good news feeds in that hole of his. He’s a great source of updates on the DPRK explosion on the China border. Winds of Change is catching up, and Command Post is back up to speed from its day in memoriam, but the Marmot’s link roun…
Of Kim Hyong-jik
He, under the motto of ?€œJiwon”, brought up his children to be indomitable revolutionaries.
And now his grandson is carrying on the great revolutionary tradition of jiwon with the even greater revolutionary ideas of ssaljiwon, jeollyeok-jiwon and piryo jiwon.
Robert,
As of this morning at 5, I still couldn’t get to your blog from my KT VDSL account at home but have no problem from my Samsung ADSL account here at work. Wonder if anyone else is having problems or if it’s just me…
Wasn’t there some talk by recent defectors of a resistance movement?
Maybe they are causing problems.
The time is now for South Korea to suspend all “sunshine” activities with North Korea until Kim Jong-il renounces his nukes. A nuclear North Korea will likely result in disasterous consequences for the people of South Korea and it’s time for the Noh administration to wake up to this reality.
If the blast was big enough, the North Koreans might have been conducting nuclear-size testing using non-nuclear explosives. That way, they conserve their nuclear fuel, gain valuable test data, and keep everyone else in Northeast Asia on their toes.
Jeffery Hodges
One idea no one has suggested yet is that the explosion was caused by the Chinese. Everyone is so focused on the implications of nukes for the US and South Korea that they have neglected to think that maybe China is also not so keen on North Korea having nukes. Maybe it was a surgical strike by China on the Nork’s nuclear facilities. What could North Korea do if China did such a thing? The Chinese are very sly and wish to put on a good front that they are the North’s ally, but economic realities tell China’s leadership that cooperation with the US is the way to go and North Korea is more a liability and burden — and a threat — than anything else. China would definitely prefer to see a non-nuclear North Korea, too. If China did knock out North Korea’s nukes, I would expect Kim Jong-il to remain very silent.
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Dear Mr Gatt:
I don’t believe `sly’ is a genetic trait of being Chinese, just of politicians.
Since North Korea could be a threat and China (those blighty Commie hypocrites!!) wants to put up a good front to the world, why do they want to bait erratic Kim?
What if Fat Boy calls China’s bluff and decides to mass troops along the border - and horrors, even launches a volley! Or creates a few explosions of its own - and China has to reciprocate. Not good. China has more to lose.
But you are right about getting cosy with US, of course. Once America saw reds under the bed. Now, it’s IN BED with them instead.
Who said “sly” was a Chinese genetic trait? I didn’t. Anyway, if North Korea started to mass troops on the Chinese border it would be game over. This would bring the US and China completely together, out in the open; North Korea would have no allies at all. North Korea could not think about taking on the Chinese and Americans. The North does have the firepower to do some serious damage to South Korea or China and maybe the US, but in a sustained war North Korea does not have the economic wealth to fight for very long. Just calculate the cost of one missile and compare it to the North’s GNP. Thousands of missiles would be needed in a war against China and the US. Also, there’s the issue of food and feeding a million man army. North Korea already has to beg for international food donations, many of which come from the US, China and South Korea. With no US, South Korean or Chinese aid, Kim Jong-il would be finished within a matter of weeks.
I would also wager that China had a hand in Ryongchon. The Chinese, although they won’t say it in the open, want a leadership change in North Korea and they want a nuclear free neighbor. Getting rid of Kim Jong-il or his nukes en secret serves Chinese interests by giving the appearance that it is honouring its treaty obligations to North Korea while serving its true economic and political interests, which have changed dramatically over the past decade or so.
Mr Galt:
“The Chinese are very sly and wish to put up a good front”…there you go. But never mind,I know what you mean, and was just taking the mickey.
“Want a leadership change in north Korea”- the dust has not even settled on the ongoing struggle between Jiang and Hu. Can they stick their finger somewhere else?
“serving its true economic and political interests” - oh, dear you may China sound like Bush’s America. Imperialists, all.
HFS! Another huge explosion in North Korea
It appears that the Norks had another huge explosion in their country last Friday: reliable source in Seoul’s diplomatic community said Sunday that a mushroom cloud with a radius of 3.5 to 4 kilometers was spotted, along with a massive
Marmot’s excellent explosion coverage
Just my luck that the mysterious North Korean explosion happened while I’m on the road (6 countries 3 continents in 3 weeks) and swamped with work. Thanks to WonsanGhetto for some rapid reaction work as the news developed yesterday….
N. Korean explosion occurs just of the river from my in-laws
This is news that got my attention. An explosion producing a mushroom shaped cloud 2 1/2 miles in diameter that occured inside North Korea in a province bordering China. According to an article posted at The Marmot, the blast…
The story of “clearing way for a hydroelectric project” just doesn’t ring right. I know they are secretive, but when it comes to announcing great undertaings and the like, NK sem to put themselves out there asap. If this was a giant project like the dam in china.. I don’t think they would have waited so long to brag about it.
doesn’t this sound a little like the black spray paint in the tunnel story? Surely nobody uses explosions this big in the construction of damns?
Actually, the construction of dams, particularly large ones can require immense ammounts of explosives. I’m not sure how many major rivers besides the Yalu and Han there are in Korea but the explosion that took place near the border was also very close to the Yalu. Perhaps part of the river is indeed being diverted for a hydro-electric project.
There has been talk of diverting the rivers that flow out of Tibet into India and the rest of SE asia. It was speculated that conventional explosives were not enough for the possible dam project(which would be even larger than the three gorges) and that it would require nuclear demolitions. (Environmentalists would probably die of apoplexy)
thanks (red face)
In all of this talk about the explosion, I have yet to hear one bit of speculation or information about the idea that there might have been casualties. Some of the scenarios (2 mile clouds of poisonous hydrazine and fuming nitric acid) would imply a huge amount of dead.
Does anyone know much about “decoupling?” I understand that nuclear detonations can be masked from detection if they occur in a large, underground cavity. The cavity supposedly absorbs the seismic energy and makes detection more difficult. Do we know for certain that the underground missile base at Yongjo-ri was, in fact, a base for missile launch pads? Could the facility have included an empty underground cavity in which to conduct a test of a nuclear explosive device? Might North Korea have exploded a large conventional device above ground in order to cover the underground event? Alternatively, could North Korea have been testing a large, conventional explosive, similar to the Daisy Cutter or MOAB (Mother of All Bombs)?
I find it to be the height of naivete for Condi Rice to suggest that this may have been a forest fire. Talk about whistling past the graveyard, I hope senior officials demonstrate more serious analysis than that.
By the way, North Korea might have the bomb
I refer you to Marmot’s coverage, which is the best I’ve been able to find online so far. UP
I have yet to come across an intelligent explanation for this event in North Korea or a scientific analysis. The forest fire explanation is just plain stupid and smells of smoke screen (pun intended). While the dam construction theory may sound plausible anyone in the mining or dam building industry would know this to be another red herring. Yes, huge amounts of explosives are used for these purposes, but this explosions are engineered to cause maximum amount of work in the form of fracturing rock and are extremely precise in limiting damage to areas of interest. These explosions are subsurface and consist of many charges with timed ignitions.
Let?´s just review the facts and their implications:
Seismographs picked this up in Alaska
Mushroom cloud 3-4km in diameter: This is an explosion, no question, and a big one at that. Also, it has to be a surface or near surface event involving and great deal of heat to create a mushroom cloud. Seismic evidence (yet to be corroborated) would rule out the forest fire. It could be a very large conventional explosion, but it could also be a small nuclear device. I have not heard any evidence reported that would rule one or the other out.
Now consider the timing - could hardly be a coincidence.
I have no doubt that a great deal more is already known than is being let out. It should already be known the exact magnitude of the explosion and whether it was nuclear or not.
In my opinion, this was probably not a nuclear blast, but likely related to their nuclear development program. It seems everyone (politicians) are trying to keep it under wraps.
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