Given the gaps in population, economy, and just about every other factor of national power there is between North and South Korea, there is simply no excuse for this:
In an assessment of whether South Korea could prevail alone in a war with North Korea, a military research arm of the government says the answer is no if the North struck without warning, a Roh administration official said yesterday.
The study, requested from the Defense Ministry’s research institute by the Blue House, excluded help from American forces on the peninsula. South Korea’s military strength was found to be weaker than that of the North.
South Korea’s Air Force was slightly stronger than that of the North, but the Army and Navy were not as potent, the research said.
The comparison of the two Koreas’ conventional arms capability did not factor in the North’s biochemical and nuclear weapons, and U.S. forces were not counted when calculating the South’s strengths.
“Based on the evaluation, we will come up with guidelines to achieve a ????cooperative self-defense system,’ after consulting with the military,” the senior official said.
The term cooperative self-defense system has been the Roh administration’s policy stance for bolstering the nation’s defense capability while lessening its dependence on the United States.The policy has been pushed at the same time the United States was moving to realign its troops on the peninsula and withdraw a third of the 37,500 American forces here.
The report showed South Korea would likely suffer decisive damage if the North made a sudden attack with its biochemical and nuclear arms at an early stage.“If the North uses its 170-millimeter self-propelled artillery and 240-millimeter multiple rocket launchers deployed on the frontline for biochemical warfare, the South will have to face an extremely unfavorable war,” a military official said.
I’m hoping this is all bullshit intended to win funds for the Ministry of Defense.
UPDATE: Budaechigae discusses the report, too.
47 Comments
non korean, “50% would run, only 25% would put up some resistance”
Where did you get this data? Or did you just make it up?
non korean, “They need more planes to win air superiority”
South Korea already has air superiority, even without US planes, which aren’t going anywhere.
non korean, “SK really needs to pump more money into its defence budget”
Where SK needs to invest is in ground artillery, since America’s MLRS units are all leaving. That’s really the only shortage I see.
The U.S. has already withdrawn one each Apache, Paladin, and MLRS battalion. The South needs to ramp up its moribund AH-X attack helo program for 36 aircraft very quickly.
I still think the South would win, due to better equipment and training. The quality of their conscripts is a big issue, but so is the quality of a growth-stunted North Korean army.
No doubt this survey will be used to justify the quick implementation of programs like the AH-X.
If it comes to Chinese troops crossing the Yalu, I’m not so sure how that would play out. China would no doubt ask the U.S. whether the ancient “Chinese” land of Koguryo was worth Los Angeles.
The South Korean military would have zero capability or will to toss out the PLA. It would be strictly up to the U.S.
Paul Webb. I have no scientific surveys or official polls to back up how many SK soldiers would run- it is pure 100%opinion. The only qualitative research I have is after asking a “What if North Korea attacked South Korea” question to 1000s of college students, 90% said they would run. Not scientific but it is something.
Yes they have an advantage in the air but in my opinion they need to invest more in planes to make sure they have complete air superiority so they can knock out any NK artillery. Then again I am no general. The only troops I have commanded have been in Axis and Allies:)
I don’t know if it’s bullshit or not, but it is something to consider.
Regardless of what this says, to move where Noh wants the Ministry of Defense is going to need tons more money than any study like this will produce.
I think we can say the South does not field a professional army. The career soldiers are quality - from what little I’ve heard - but the bulk of the South’s “self-defense” is conscript, and the conscript system is despised……to say the least. The quality of living is poor. The pay is nothing.
South Korea should be able to win a war even considering non-nuclear WMDs given its population size, industry, and wealth.
But since the will to win alone isn’t there……
And that isn’t even a big slam on South Korean society. The status quo is powerful everywhere when it comes to huge ticket items and major social change
Of course, South Korea will lose if North Korea attacks with biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. The answer to “why” is very simple. Without the US nuclear shield, South Korea doesn’t have the same Weapons of Mass Destruction capability as the North does. Does this mean now that South Korea will have to go nuclear and biological to defend against the North’s WMD? Probably.
Headline: South would lose war against North?
Wrong question. The question is what would happen if North Korea’s government collapses, and China moves in to annex North Korea’s territory. Does South Korea have what it takes to evict the Chinese?
I’m still trying to gather opinions as to whether or not SK has the will to confront Chinese aggression from the North. So far, people (Koreans) actually do not want to give me an opinion, one way or the other. I’m guessing the people I ask do not want to think about it.
South Korea nuclear now!!!
“Wrong question. The question is what would happen if North Korea?€™s government collapses, and China moves in to annex North Korea?€™s territory.”
to support a failed economy? whatever for? the chinese would rather stem the flow of refugees at their border and let the south koreans to take over the $$$$$$$ task. that would keep the koreans busy for at least two decades.
First off, in a one-on-one fight, the KPA is no match for ROKA. Not only is the ROK military far superior to the Norks, wars are won economically. South Korea’s economy is 20-30 times larger and the South’s industrial base would win it alone.
usinkorea, “I think we can say the South does not field a professional army.”
I would rank South Korea’s military as third or fourth best in the world. Its officer corps is very professional, its troops are highly trained, and its well equipped. Believe me, this military is quite formidable.
usinkorea, “and the conscript system is despised”
This is true. Morale is always lower in conscript armies.
usinkorea, “But since the will to win alone isn?€™t there”
Morale will not be a problem if North Korea attacks. The fighting between Northern and Southern soldiers in the Korean War was ferocious.
HSN, “Without the US nuclear shield, South Korea doesn?€™t have the same Weapons of Mass Destruction capability as the North does.”
Since South Korea will never lose the US nuclear shield, nor will lose US air support, there’s no point in speculating on this. However, it’s very possible South Korea will lose US ground support in a future war. That was the point of this study, which comes to the wrong conclusion, because modern wars are won in the air.
Zhang Fei, “and China moves in to annex North Korea?€™s territory. Does South Korea have what it takes to evict the Chinese?”
The South doesn’t need to worry about China. First of all, the US will tell China to stay out of North Korea. If they cross the Yalu, they will get bombed by the US Air Force. Second, SK, Japan, and the US can slap trade sanctions on China at the drop of a hat. That was the great thing about China joining the WTO. China’s economy is now too dependent on these three economies. And third, the US Navy can choke off China’s oil supply from the Middle East. By invading North Korea, China has very little to gain and too much to lose.
mw, “the chinese would rather stem the flow of refugees at their border”
This is correct. China will line up its army along the border to prevent an influx of refugees. But refugees are not going be a big problem anyway. Most of North Korea’s military is concentrated on the DMZ so most of North Korea will be spared from bombing. And after the war starts, the US will drop food aid to the people - more food than they’ve ever seen before. South Korea alone has enough surplus rice to feed every North Korean for months.
Their is no reason for the North winning a conventional war but I really think they would. The professional SK soldiers are well trained and ready to fight. But the bulk of the army is conscripts that hate it. They would run South to Pusan as fast as they could instead of reporting in to fight. About a quarter of the conscripts would prabably welcome NK- mostly younger ones, 50% would run, only 25% would put up some resistance for a short time while hoping the UN and or US help.
During the Korean war the NK soldiers would probe the allied lines to see where the SK soldiers were and then concentrate on that part of the line because they knew the SK soldiers would run.
SK really needs to pump more money into its defence budget. They need more planes to win air superiority and professional troops on the ground ready to fight. But thus far they are unwilling to do so. To beaf up defence and move the capitol at the same time is economic suicide. I don’t see why Roh wants to move the capitol so badly. Once NK and SK reunify they will move the capitol to Pyongyang.
SK can’t even defend itself against NK. There is no way Korea would be able to push out China if China did a land grab.
Wedge, “The South needs to ramp up its moribund AH-X attack helo program for 36 aircraft very quickly.”
KPA tanks are still no match for the South’s “moribund” helicopters.
Wedge, “China would no doubt ask the U.S. whether the ancient ?€œChinese?€? land of Koguryo was worth Los Angeles.”
And the US would ask if Koguryo is worth Beijing. Both sides would realize very quickly that this “ancient land” is not worth fighting over.
non korean, “What if North Korea attacked South Korea?€? question to 1000s of college students, 90% said they would run.”
If I was an unarmed civilian, I would run too.
non korean, “they need to invest more in planes to make sure they have complete air superiority so they can knock out any NK artillery”
Even with complete air superiority, NK artillery has enough time to destroy Seoul. ROKA+USAF (minus US Army) is so superior right now, this is the only military strategy remaining for the Norks: “we’re taking Seoul down with us.” Roh’s plan to move the capital south is party due to Seoul’s status as a hostage. But you never read this in the media.
It’s amusing to see the Koguryo issued twisted around from Korean irridentism over Gando into Chinese Imperialism. Keep up the good work comrades.
All you armchair warriors are getting a little wood just thinking about all these “scenarios,” aren’t you.
Asia by Blog
All the very best from right around Asia… Hong Kong, Taiwan and China Andrea from T-Salon has posted on the story on the Free Culture Chinese translation project. It’s an amazing story of collaborative effort by Chinese bloggers and could be the fir…
zecks, “All you armchair warriors are getting a little wood just thinking about all these ’scenarios’, aren?€™t you.”
The sad thing is that most Korean college students are oblivious to all these scenarios. Ah well, I guess they’ll learn about “brotherly love” the hard way.
’south koreans would have no will to fight.’
this sentence here tells me the writer must not know koreans at all. china occupy any part of korea? it’s going to be misery for the chinese. their own private vietnam.
‘gando…’ some chinese person
has south korea claimed gando? no, it has not. has a state run newspaper in china claimed koguryo as chinese? yes, it has. has south korea claimed any part of china’s history as it it’s own? no, it has not.
china tells us that koguryo is chinese and we all know that’s not true. when koreans talk about gando, they’re talking about a real place and a real issue that really is the heart of the matter; china is using koguryo to manipulate the south koreans into giving them what they really want- a decalartion and a signed treaty recognizing the present day borders as they stand.
the south koreans should give them that declaration and treaty so that the two nations can move forward.
***
boy, i’ll tell you something, i don’t think i have ever felt angry towards the chinese in my life. but i do now. may i ramble a bit about them? i’ve studied the chinese for a very long time. i’ve taken note that for the most part, they’ve been good neighbors to the koreans and have paid a price for it; the chinese have saved korea’s bacon more than a few times. of course, they didn’t do those things entirely out of altruism, but i think it’s clear the chinese thought it best to have an independent korea. and why not? koryo has always stood in the way of nippon and it’s hunger to attack junggwo. korea also undertook the task of civilizing the japanese islands so the chinese didn’t have to. so, korea has paid a price for it’s sinic friend too.
this issue of koguryo threatens to turn koreans against the chinese and that is not in the interest of the chinese people. i would urge the chinese to back off lest they see for the first time a korea that works against their interests.
shin, the chinese has no interest in a land grab with korea north or south. as you put it, as long as the present borders stand after korean reunification.
the problem is that there are a growing movement in south korea that claims sovereignity over heilongjiang and even inner mongolia. the chinese claim of koguryo history is a defensive block.
Paul Web
Half of the students were 1st year students that had no military training and I don’t blame them for running either. Half were second year students. Most Korean males that go to University do their military duty after their freshman year. Then they come back to school as second year students. They are expected to report in and defend their country if a war were to break out. But still a vast majority of them said they would run.
Moving the capital south out of the North’s artillery would could very well be one beneficial unspoken reason to move the capital. But if North Korea does a surprise attack, Seoul and Incheon will be a sea of flames no matter what military hardware they purchase.
Being an armchair warrior is tuff work:)
If the North felt they could win, they would have attacked by now. There’s a reason they haven’t. I’d guess that is probably because Nork wargamers have come up with the same result as the Pentagon
“A high-intensity conflict lasting 180-290 days with causalties as follows, mostly South Korean. Estimates: 200.000-400,000 American dead, 7-22 million Korean dead. High probability of WMD use, initiated and in retaliation. Conclusion: ROK and American forces claim complete control of the Korean Peninsula.”
(further down footnote) *The wide range of possible South Korean casualties is due to the high population density of Seoul and the uncertainty of what may occur.”
They don’t say it, but I would bet all the money in my pocket against all the money in your pocket that you can add a lot of Japanese to the dead in any inter-Korean conflict.
I think the North is huffing and puffing out of fear: they can’t win and they know it, they just want to avoid being the next Iraq.
My i-won worth
Because Seoul can be taken out so easily, being so close to the boarder, I think the south will never be able to attack. However, it would seem to me that the ROK?€™s military, population and economic advantages would still be strong enough to win if the North was dumb enough to attack. The industry rich south of the ROK would, I hope, be easier to defend. And as mentioned, the US air force in Korea and Japan would be formidable. Heck, before this report my mind was that the north had only aging tanks and planes and a million starving troops!
I’m not even sure that the south should ‘have’ the north, or if that?€™s what the north wants. Certainly Kim Jong Il supports unification on his terms, but we have almost no idea about what the populace of the north wants. Perhaps they would not accept the south?€™s capitalistic values? Sovereignty should be decided by the north in a democratic way, I think that would be better for the south as well as the north. To force values onto them would be expensive and immoral.
I’ve never thought about china stepping into the north, but it’s easy to imagine scenarios where they could. A crumpling government in the north would do well to ask China for support. The introduction of Chinese troops to maintain a lose regime in the north could easily turn into some form of annexation.
To expound further on the issue of Gando during the Japanese colonial era, I found this little blurb from a U.S. army website (http://6thcav.korea.army.mil/ak.htm) that raises certain issues over Gando’s sovreignty
“The situation of the volunteer army was extremely difficult, in that it had to supply itself as best it could with weapons and other necessities to fight against Japan, while the Japanese army and police could easily obtain war supplies from their country. The Korean armed resistance gradually grew weaker, and Japan reported that the Korean volunteer army had ceased to exist in November 1910 or in March 1912 with its last operation in Hwanghae-do province. McKenzie reported, however, that the volunteer army’s resistance might have continued until 1915. At home the resistance took the form of underground organization, while many patriots crossed the Amnokgang and Duman-gang rivers into Manchuria, where they organized the Korean Independence Army with its stronghold in Gando, Manchuria. This army became the main force in all subsequent struggles against the Japanese.
The population of the Gando district as of 1909 consisted of 83,000 Koreans and 21,000 Chinese. The Resident-General, in order to destroy the Korean independence movement there, set up a branch office and stationed military and civilian police forces in Gando. A corps of Korean independence fighters under the leadership of Hong Beom-do had already moved to Gando, but Japan sought to oppress Korean residents in the district by demanding that China recognize Gando as Korean territory under Japanese control.
There was a change of policy, however, as a result of China’s concession authorizing Japan’s Southern Manchurian Railroad Company to lay branch lines and exploit mining resources in Manchuria. In return, Japan concluded a treaty with China on September 4, 1909, recognizing Chinese territorial rights over Gando.”
Now from my interpretation of these paragraphs, my understanding is that Korean partisans who after having been driven out off the Korea peninsula by the IJA relocated to what was nominally Chinese controlled territory to regroup. Guerilla forces are notorious for operating out of neighboring countries in order to avoid retaliatory attacks on their base of operations. The Korean guerillas in this case thought Gando could be used as a staging ground for raids into Japanese occupied Korea and be safe from reprisals since they were operating from what was considered Chinese territory. In any case, this didn’t deter the IJA as they began asserting that Gando was Korean territory in order to legitimize troop movements into Gando to suppress the Korean guerillas. This ended however when Japan withdrew its claims after China gave Japan further economic concessions in Manchuria.
A totally different picture emerges than the simple blurbs from Korean media that Japan had simply ceeded Gando(Korean territory) to China.
South Would Lose New Korean War
The Marmot notes a somewhat alarming story in the Joongang Ilbo: “In an assessment of whether South Korea could prevail alone in a war with North Korea, a military research arm of the government says the answer is no if…
sneak attack or no sneak attack.. the north can’t support a war. even if they marched all the way to pusan.. they can’t afford to hold the ground and they aren’t supplied by china or russia any longer. they would collapse within a month if they tried it. ever wonder why they didn’t attack while america was busy with the first two gulf wars? that would have been a perfect opportunity. the norks are living hand to mouth and can’t even consider running an expensive military operation.
economics aside, this report was flawed from the start. the US air force would decimate any attempts by nork armor or troops to cross into the south. they would make the highway of death look like childs play.
the agency that asked for this report must be trying to get more money for the south’s military.
Shin perhaps you are unaware that certain segments of the South Korea public and government are indeed making territorial claims on Gando, or at least preparing the groundwork for latter claims.
“The Chinese government has also conducted an official study called the “East-North Project?€™?€™ since 2002 to prepare historical support for their claims. Kim and other Korean scholars regard this move as preparation for future disputes with a unified Korea.
“With such distortion, China aims to gain an advantage over Korea about territory and people in the Gando area. The country aims to class ethnic Korean-Chinese living in Gando as their people,?€™?€™ Kim pointed out.” ~ Korea Times
“In the meantime, Minister Ban added, ?€œThe Gando problem is a very delicate matter involving many countries, including North Korea.?€?
Ban?€™s remark drew special attention as it could mean that the South Korean government could take issue with the 1909 Gando Convention, which set the current border between China and North Korea, in the future _ probably after the reunification of the two Koreas.
Japan ceded territorial rights of Gando, which belonged to the Choson Kingdom before it was colonized by Japan, to the Qing Dynasty in 1909 for its exclusive rights to build and control a railway in Manchuria. Despite these changes, the inhabitants of Gando were mostly Koreans and the area remained under significant Korean influence.
Historians assert it is illegitimate, as the agreement was made during the period of Japanese colonial rule. Japanese treaties concerning Korea during the colonial rule were rendered illegitimate after the fall of the Japanese Empire. A group of legislators recently pushed for a resolution asserting the invalidity of the 1909 convention.
?€œPlease, do not play up my words,?€? Ban told reporters. However, he clearly stated that the Gando problem is ?€œa matter that should be dealt with carefully after collecting more accurate historical data.?€? ~ Again Korea Times.
You are right though, That China is probably using the Koguryo issue to pressure Korea into some kind of settlement over Gando.
Jing. In other words, you are saying Gando area which is currently part of China, really legally belongs to Korea and China is illegally sitting on it, benefitted by the Japanese colonial government of 1909 - which makes this deal between China and Japan illegal. Very interesting. China can’t slam Japan for their agressions of the past, without righting the colonial misdeeds. Isn’t it hypocritical of China to bash Japan for colonialism but at the same time reap the fruits in the form of gaining territory that doesn’t belong to them?
Here’s my analysis of this report that the South will lose to the North. I highly doubt this can happen.
The flaw in this report doesn’t take into consideration the over all dilapidated condition of the North Korean military. Their tanks are Russian made T-55 and T-62 - 1950’s and 1960’s vintage. Their planes are MIG-19’s and MIG-21, again, no match for modern ROK and US fighters. This report seems only to look at numerical statistics. It also ignores the fact that NORK fighter pilots are lucky if they go on air 20 hours per year to train due to lack of fuel and parts. So how can the report come out say that the ROK has only a slight advantage on air, is beyond me. The report must be only looking at numerical stats, nothing more.
Sure one million man army of North Korea sounds awsome. But the report doesn’t even attempt to address what the real state of the North Korean army is. The report only assumes that the North Korean soldiers will fight with morale. I have my doubts on this. Maybe the hardcore will, but I’m willing to wager that a big chunk of the majority will drop their weapons and defect in mass, as soon as they get a chance. North Korea maybe the world’s most isolated desolate place on earth, but its people are not dumb. Many know what is going on here and I bet they aren’t willing to fight to keep a system of Kim Jong Il Korea.
Thats quite an interesting leap in logic there HSN, I was simply presenting the Korean claim to Gando, not implying whether I agreed with it or not.
There is of course a problem with South Korea’s claim on Gando, namely that the DPRK and the PRC had long ago concluded a permanent settlement that established the present borders where they are. Also there is the demographic factor, its not just ethnic Koreans that live in what was historical Gando, there are plenty of Chinese (han/manchu/mongol/etc) living there now.
HSN, korean claims include manuchuria (some go as far as mongolia as well!). why because they believe that manchus (& mongolians) and koreans are of the same stock and should be united in one country.
if we are to talk about correcting colonial claims than the chinese will want the mogonlian republic and the russian far east territority back. and of course the us will revert to great britain and texas to mexico, singapore to malaysia …….. blah blah blah…
“Does South Korea have what it takes to evict the Chinese? ”
Strangely, curiously, bizarrely, I have been told three times in the past two weeks by Korean colleagues, that if China makes its move, Japan will come to Korea’s rescue with military and economic assistance.
Don’t know which orifice this idea popped out of, but it’s out there now, and looks to be gaining adherence.
Paul Webb wrote “I would rank South Korea?€™s military as third or fourth best in the world. Its officer corps is very professional, its troops are highly trained, and its well equipped.”
I disagree. Go to any ROK armor or artillery unit and not what you see. Tank commanders routinely complain that they are only alloted a grand whopping total of eight [yep, 8] live fire rounds per tank per year. That’s not enough to get the job done, especially with an army of rapidly rotating conscripted personnel, but it’s plenty to make a little noise and give some sense of security and comfort to the Korean public.
In comparison, the US 2nd Infantry tanks put dozens of rounds on target each year and have far more opportunities for maneuver practice too.
non korean, “They are expected to report in and defend their country if a war were to break out.”
Ah, I understand your point now. Those who served active duty in ROKA are reservists in college and your questionaire says most of them will bug out. Well, if they don’t report for duty to protect their country, then they deserve to be shot.
captain scarlet, “the US air force would decimate any attempts by nork armor or troops to cross into the south.”
Yep. Modern wars are won in the air.
Comment, “that if China makes its move, Japan will come to Korea?€™s rescue with military and economic assistance.”
So will the U.S. The invasion of Korea is no-win situation for China.
Jing, “Ban?€™s remark drew special attention as it could mean that the South Korean government could take issue with the 1909 Gando Convention, which set the current border between China and North Korea”
Look, all these border disputes are stupid. South Korea should get North Korea and that’s that. Instead of arguing over a piece of “ancient land,” a unified Korea and China should talk about building railroads, developing trade, and allowing the free movement of people between the border.
I crack up when I hear Koreans shout, “I want our history back!” What does that history do for you exactly? Does it feed you? Does it pay for your cell phone bill? No, but trade with China will help you with that.
Follow the example of the EU. You can now drive from Germany to France without knowing that you entered France. There is no sign that says “Welcome to France”, no checkpoints or border guards, just trees and road. Given the history of these two countries, this is truly amazing.
Tibet got screwed, but now they’re better off being a part of the Chinese economy and a Chinese “state.” Tibetians will be worse off under independence. Nowadays, the Chinese complain that minorities in China get more rights than they do, like having two children instead of one.
Paul Webb: Nowadays, the Chinese complain that minorities in China get more rights than they do, like having two children instead of one.
Actually, they don’t any more. Minorities get to have one child, like everyone else.
Note that they have good reason to complain. China is perhaps 95% Han. The vast lands that have been stolen liberated from China’s minorities are now by and large administered by the Han. Hordes of Han Chinese are essentially being provided land grants to settle on minority-owned land. Finally, without Chinese rule, Tibet would probably be no worse than it is today - given that Tibet has sub-Saharan levels of per capita income, even though it has significant amounts of natural resources.
Gawd how I hate to be the one on the same side as Shin Jong Il, but this statement really seems wrong to me:
Finally, without Chinese rule, Tibet would probably be no worse than it is today - given that Tibet has sub-Saharan levels of per capita income, even though it has significant amounts of natural resources.
Yes, every word in the sentence is probably true, but is that an excuse for taking over another country? Changing the words Tibet for Hong Kong, and China for Great Britain, would we allow the same reasoning to stand unchallenged? I have to think that opportunities to make money are not an adequate justification to invade the home of another.
http://www.tibet-china.org link
the PRC and the Republic of China (taiwan) includes Tibet as part of its territory.
even the dalai lama only seeks autonomy not independence from china.
Oh boy, a pro-Chinese site that makes European anthropology from the Imperial Age look enlightened.
Tibet, Taiwan, Mongolia, Tibet, and Korea are all Chinese lands.
All of them were once Chinese territory historically speaking. China has every right to incorporate all the lands under the Han Chinese rule.
Please disregard the troll.
“Tibet, Taiwan, Mongolia, Tibet, and Korea are all Chinese lands. All of them were once Chinese territory historically speaking. China has every right to incorporate all the lands under the Han Chinese rule.”
Bullshit.
By that same reasoning, China can be said to be Mongol land, or even Manchu land, and parts of China of course would rightfully belong to Portugal and Great Britain. and hey, why not turn over part of the country to Japan and Korea. They both took their own turns ruling over the Han people.
Whatcha gonna do?
Historical possession, tradition, or even current demographics don’t mean anything. It’s the same reason Korea should be careful about making claims to Gando.
There’s more to the subject of “our history” than possession hundreds of years ago.
Asia by Blog - Month in Review
This is cross-posted at Winds of Change. Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot…
Asia by Blog - Month in Review
This is cross-posted at Winds of Change. Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot…
Simon’s E. Asia Overview PRC News: Sep 28/04
It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. We cover China (in depth), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore et. al).
Simon’s E. Asia Overview PRC News: Sep 28/04
It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. We cover China (in depth), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore et. al).
To return to the original defence ministry report, the study excluded ‘American forces on the peninsula’. I’m going to interpret that to mean ‘exclude any American forces whatsoever’, as most of the eventual American counteroffensive would comprise reinforcements from throughout Pacific Command and beyond. An ROK white paper in 2000 claimed that the US OPLAN 5027 called for ‘690,000 [US] troops on the Korean peninsula if a new war breaks out’. Of course, that is far beyond the Pentagon’s present resources and might prove so even if the bulk of our land forces weren’t mired in Iraq. In any case, to play fair by the study’s rules, we should therefore disqualify USAF in Japan, Marines from Okinawa and California, etc.
It’s very very hard to predict how the next Korean War would play out: there are an incredible number of wildcards (North Korean WMD, the PRC, loyalty of Koreans on both sides, American distractions, etc). I also caution anyone from extrapolating excessively from recent US wars, which have mostly been highly one-sided affairs between the most powerful military in history and deteriorating Third World conscript forces. Despite its wealth and technology, the ROK is not the USA, and lacks the operational training, etc, of American forces. And yes it’s a conscript army, though most conscript armies fight hard to defend their homelands. And despite decades of poverty, the North Korean military, I would wager, is still able to field the greater portion of its divisions and (obsolescent) equipment. In some ways the very backwardness of most North Korean kit is an advantage in this respect (easier maintenance with less reliance on undependable foreign support). Initially the North Koreans don’t have far to go anyhow (though sustaining such an offensive beyond a few weeks would probably exhaust them). Nor would air superiority (whether ROK or US) be as decisive in Korea as it has proven in the flat deserts of the Gulf (see, for instance, Nato airpower’s mixed results against Serbian forces in hilly, wooded, and urban Kosovo).
The next Korean War would prove both old-fashioned (lots of heavy slogging between huge infantry forces, massed artillery, etc) and something completely new (no large-scale mechanised war has ever been fought in densely urbanised First World terrain with modern technology). The North Koreans would probably have a certain level of tactical surprise in an invasion (especially if America is not assisting the ROK), and the effects of their initial bombardment (and SOF incursions) on Seoul and ROK military bases would be like nothing experienced in most of our lifetimes. -Remember-: no First World military has come under sustained heavy massed conventional firepower (ie huge artillery barrages) since probably the last Korean War (though Israeli units may have experienced such in limited quantities during their conventional wars). It’s not clear how well First World reliance on advanced communications, logistics, etc, would fare in such an environment. And that’s leaving aside the chaos of millions of fleeing civilians, etc.
It is exceedingly foolish (and lazy) to assume that economic power always translates into military power. Economic superiority -eventually- can translate into military victory, but often countries don’t have that time. Western Europe and much of the Soviet Union fell to Nazi Germany in very quick offensives, in which the greater economic potential of the Allies initially could play no role (you have to buy tanks -today- to fight -tomorrow-; tomorrow’s tanks might be too late). Finally, morale and training count for much in war, and it’s difficult to make definitive judgements about either Korean military in the current political and cultural climate. I will point out, though the ROK army is very good, especially for its size, it is still a conscript army, and it’s rather daft to claim it is ‘number 4′, at least based on the quality of its soldiers. Though much smaller, the Anglo-Saxon armies outside the US (ie UK, Canada, Australia, etc) all field superb troops, man for man, as does the traditionally professional (and Colonial) component of the French military (eg the Legion Etrangere). And then there’s Israel, which I must believe is still one of the most effective Western militaries, despite the declines documented by Van Creveld et al.
If you’re curious, please take a look at
http://www.globalsecurity.org/.....crisis.htm
…especially the details of OPLAN 5027.
Yours, M
i would have hoped that by now south korea would consider scaling back its armed forces, rather than preparing to defend itself against nk … the last thing korea needs is more spending on military.
will the philippines get involved in a war cuz they can do some serious damage esp with the secretive malalong elite force.