Comments on: A Global Power Shift in the Making — REQUIRED READING!!!!

By: ACB

ACB — Sun, 17 Oct 2004 04:40:31 +0000

If China and Japan every get together, then watch out US trade.

By: Dan Schmelzer

Dan Schmelzer — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 16:49:34 +0000

To echo some of the comments above, China’s rise is not at all inevitable. Just like in investing, high growth implies high volatility — i.e., high risk. How will China deal with a depression, for instance? It’s likely to have at least one.

Likely, China will trade off some economic growth for stability, as the US has done post-Great Depression. In this case, the rise will take longer and there will be a lot less pressure on the global power structure.

By: The Marmot

The Marmot — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 08:50:57 +0000

Jing — I agree with you, but I should point out while no one is talking about the impending collapse of India, relatively few are hyping India as much as China. For the record, I don’t think China will collapse — actually, it’s more like I sincerely hope it doesn’t — but just as it would take a remarkable string of misfortune for China to go into the tank, it would take just as remarkable a string of fortune for China to keep developing like it is. And the possibility of serious problems cannot be ruled out — we would have been much better served having listened to those who advised caution before 1997, and accordingly, I think some degree of prudence would be advisable when we look at Chinese growth forecasts.

By: Fabius

Fabius — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 08:37:36 +0000

Th biggest story in China isn’t the 60% non-performing loans in the state banks (India doesn’t have this problem), its the continuing accumulation of non-performing loans at a horrendous rate.

Something has to give. Maybe Jing is right and China will dodge the bullet. But if theres a financial collapse in China, remember who told you first =)

By: SundubuMan

SundubuMan — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 07:09:03 +0000

I agree with many of you that predictions such as these are often nothing more than conjecture.

I didn’t read the article yet, but it seems to me that Asian countries, particularly East Asian, have a history of being rather insular (with the huge exceptions of the Mongols). So even if the economic center of the world shifted to Asia, I doubt that the political center will shift from Europe and America.

If one looks at American history, the economic center has definitely shifted away from the East Coast but that region still maintains a large degree of poitcal power.

By: Toolboy

Toolboy — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 01:29:10 +0000

All these predictions by Paul Kennedy, Gordon Chang, and the likes - are just that, predictions. Nobody knows the future, and just like in Vegas, history is not a very good guide for determining future events. If this were the case, then war in Europe should be imminent. So don’t take these kinds of articles too seriously.

By: non korean

non korean — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 00:25:33 +0000

I have also read a lot about China and Asia coming up in the world. I think there is no doubt Asia in general is getting more powerful economically and militarily. If it is enough for an actual power shift remains to be seen and if so will be a long ways off in the future. I remember reading about 5 years ago about the excess of boys in China due to the one child policy. The article hinted that these men with no possibility have no problem fighting for China because they have nothing to lose. I don’t neccessarily believe in this but it is interesting to entertain the idea.

By: Jing

Jing — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 00:10:28 +0000

Just so you are a bit more clear USinKorea, Foreign Affairs is not an academic source. What it is, is simply editorial. Some of the articles can be written by academics, but they more reflect the author’s opinions than anything else. I’ve had a number of professors that have lectured that Foreign Affairs is not to be treated as an academic work.

By: Simon World

Simon World — Mon, 19 Jul 2004 22:20:46 +0000

Asia by blog
Doing the rounds for the Asian blogging round-up: Hong Kong, Taiwan and China Slowly minds are being turned on the idea that China might actually invade Taiwan. Richard notes that, as is often the case, the media sometimes has hidden agendas on this is…

By: Brainysmurf

Brainysmurf — Mon, 19 Jul 2004 20:13:44 +0000

Git us da Chianese!
Via the Marmot I found an exemplorary article that discusses the rise of the East, with some perceptive comments on the station China is currently occupying. One line in particular stuck out. When discussing ways for the US to maintain its influence in…