The Marmot’s Hole

Park Sang-seek, who would have been the Marmot’s thesis adviser had he actually written the damn thing, contributed a piece on the debate surrounding the Korea-U.S. alliance to the Korea Herald. Here’s just some of it:

The United States and South Korea needed each other in the Cold War period mainly because Washington wanted to keep Seoul under its sphere of influence and the South to protect itself from the North Korean threat. Now, their goals remain unchanged but they are reexamining whether they need each other as strongly as before; they are slowly moving out of the Cold War framework on the Korean Peninsula and are about to construct a new security framework.

The United States is now examining the value of South Korea as a forward base in Northeast Asia, because the U.S. military base in Japan may be sufficient as a forward base to check China and possibly Russia, particularly since modern military forces are becoming highly mobile and more powerful.

On the other hand, South Korea is examining the value of its U.S. ally, considering that North Korea is becoming less hostile and China and Russia are becoming friendlier.

Here lies a danger for miscalculation. Will North Korea really change? Will China and Russia remain friendly? In the short and medium term, the big neighbors are likely to become friendlier. North Korea is most difficult to predict because its own domestic conditions are highly fragile and its relations with the United States and South Korea are highly volatile.

As long as North Korea keeps its programs on weapons of mass destruction, the tension on the Korean Peninsula will not diminish, and hence the Korea-U.S. alliance will be still needed. However, a large scale U.S. military presence may not be necessary. If the United States decides to withdraw some of its troops in Korea for other purposes, there is no way to prevent this.

Park’s a brilliant guy who really influenced my understanding of international relations. Anyway, read the rest of his piece on your own.