UPDATE: Welcome again from Instapundit. Anyway, I hope you enjoy some of the stuff I have to offer, and while you’re here, please pay some of my fellow Korea and Asia blogger visits — the lists are to your right.
According to the Jo Gap-je, the chief editor of the Chosun Ilbo’s Monthly Chosun Magazine, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney apparently laid down the law to the Chinese during his visit to Beijing. More specifically, he is said to have told Chinese leaders, “If China cannot prevent North Korea from arming itself with nuclear weapons, the United States, too, cannot prevent Taiwan and Japan from arming themselves with nuclear weapons.” Ouch! Anyway, Jo claims he got his info from an American intelligence source. He also mentioned that the Chinese owe the Americans; apparently, Beijing twice asked Washington — once during the Reagan administration and once during Bush Sr.’s — to put the squeeze on Taipei’s nuclear weapons programs. Taiwan can produce nukes within a couple of months, and as a non-party to the NPT, it could do so without any international legal barriers whatsoever. Anyway, this apparently explains China’s sudden request that Kim visit Beijing, and there’s a possibility that Pyongyang — now under intense Chinese pressure — may soon make a “dramatic declaration” much like Libya’s.
Anyway, I don’t know what to make of this. Could be bullshit, but it might not be. I certainly hope it’s true, because I had given up all hope that any American leader would explain things so frankly to China.
UPDATE II: Rebecca MacKinnon has something to say about this over at NKzone:
Now, I have definitely heard of this warning being bandied about before in diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing. The message is not new to the Chinese. They have been concerned about Japan’s nuclear potential for a long time. One can get into a separate argument about what Japan and Taiwan really WOULD do.. but that’s a separate discussion. The question is: will pressuring the Chinese with such “theoretical scenarios” result in a “Libya-style” move by Pyongyang? Not necessarily. If the Chinese had control over what N.Korea does with its nukes, N.Korea wouldn’t have nukes in the first place.
Good point, although past American behavior may have suggested to China that it wouldn’t need to pay the political costs or take the potential risks inherent with clamping down on North Korea — the Americans would do it for them, with the added benefit of a possible reduction in American influence in the region. With that in mind, Beijing may have considered North Korea’s nuclear program — and the perpetual headaches they generated for Washington — temporarily useful geopolitically. But that’s a whole other post…
15 Comments
Like I said, it’s hard to filter the fact from fiction with a lot of these reports. Still, I’d like to believe it happened, and it might have an effect.
Somethign I have always wondered is what would SK response if it was surrounded by other nuclear nations (China, Russia, Japan, Taiwan, and NK). Would they go nuclear as well? As it has been stated many times, due to the technological sophitication of the countries Taiwan, SK, and Japan could easily all become nuclear in a matter of months, if not weeks.
Hey Marmot, what is your general feeling about this Jo Gap-je fellow? When I read that article, my immediate response was “bullshit”, but then on reflection I had to admit that I know nothing about Sino-US relations. My problem is perhaps with the bluntness of the reported language. But perhaps on one level, I think that the current US administration might actually speak Zhongnanhai’s language. Which certainly puts a whole new spin on things.
I hope we all remember, though, that unfortunately the Chinese position on Taiwan is non-negotiable. If Taiwan goes independent (and I do not honestly expect it will), all bets are off.
Which makes things more interesting. I am sure the US understands that, and that China knows that the US understands that. Neither country wants a spat over Taiwan (some spat!), so maybe THERE is room for the US to be a little bit, um, forward, in extracting a , well, favour (?) from the Chinese. So perhaps there is a certain degree of believablity in it.
So who is this Jo fellow? Some sort of Korean Willy Wo-lap Lam? He does not seem to be beyond a little self-glorification however. Seen his homepage?
Fork it. Emphasis on the wrong word in above.
The old RSA, ROC and Israel traded and collaborated on a lot of weapons programs. I know RSA and ROC used Israeli developed air to air and anti-ship missiles.
As for an ALCM, if those three ever did that it was never public. None of those countries had a military plane that could carry a 1980 vintage ALCM either.
I’ve been wondering when the administration would play their ace in the hole. ‘Bout time.
Sure would be nice if true. Perhaps Cheney, as somebody with no future political ambitions, is capable of doing this — if anyone in the US govt is.
I would have thought that between:
–State Dept types who argue for the status quo no matter what;
–horrified US lefties who see the US as responsible for all the world’s ills; and
–US businesses who are worried about their Asian investments;
that we would just go on “expressing grave concern”, as the NorKs keep building nukes, and as our intelligence services have to start figuring out whether or not they’re exporting fissile material to anyone with cash.
And of course any announcement of such a discovery (of NK exports of fissile material) will now be subject to political attack, by the Democrats at home and anti-Americans abroad, after the WMD debacle.
Tell me M (or anyone else)–do you think if ROK intelligence services discovered evidence of NorK export of fissile material — would they tell the CIA? For my part, I sure hope we’re not dependent on this.
With the crescendo of conventional car/truck/suicide bombings (and attempted ones) lately, in Europe and the Mideast, I figure it’s only a matter of time until we have a “radiological” one. (Did you notice the story a few days ago about the possible “chemical” bombing in Amman, supposedly averted by the Jordanians? I only know about it from the internet; it got almost no play on US cable TV news that I saw.)
A “plutonium” one (if it happens) will be particularly nasty.
I don’t know enough about Jo to really comment, although I’ve heard he’s rather virulently anti-communist but a stand-up guy. Apparently, he’s got connections, so it’s not impossible that what he said took place. Certainly, if the Bush administration were to deliver such a message, Cheney would seem like the logical fellow to convey it. Geopolitically, it makes sense, and the Chinese had to have been figuring something like that was possible — I’ve said it a gazzilion times before, Great Powers are responsible for making sure their allies don’t rock the boat. The U.S. cracked down on South Korea when it tried to build nukes in the 70s, it apparently did the same with Taiwan and its whole security arrangement with Japan seems designed to make sure Tokyo doesn’t become a “normal country” (Japanese usage) in terms of its security policy. If China wants to play in the Big Leagues — and everything I hear coming out of Beijing suggests that it does — it needs to use its influence to ensure that its clients do not dangerously harm the interests of other Great Powers. A failure to do so might result in other Great Powers (in this case, the U.S.) taking retaliatory actions — this is simply basic geopolitics. If China maintains that it lacks the ability to influence North Korean behaviour while expecting the U.S. to use its influence to curb the behavior of its allies, Beijing could no longer expect — realistically speaking — Washington to treat it as an “equal,” and its national prestige would dimish accordingly. Besides, if the North Koreans go nuclear, the “point” of the whole non-proliferation regime in East Asia comes into question; that’s something Hu Jintao didn’t have to hear from Cheney to understand.
Interestingly enough, the point you make about the Bush administration and Beijing speaking the same language is a good one — if you’ve ever taken a look at Chinese Foreign Ministry and Defense White Papers, they are remarkably realistic (in their appraisals of Chinese national interests). They are fully aware of the way national power influences relations between states. So yes, despite the fact that the U.S. does things they do not always like, at least there’s an understanding between the two as to how things work. Coincidentally, the Bush administration seems to enjoy the same sort of relationship with Russia’s rather hard-nosed President Putin.
Re: Understanding between Bush administration and CCP
Wasn’t George Bush Sr. the US ambassador (actually, envoy) to China right around the time of the Nixon visit? That would have been an educational experience, for sure. He may be passing tips to his son now…
Questions like this one, Ventilator old chap, make me realize how old I am.
Unless my memory circuits are shorting, there would have been no US embassy in Peking during the Nixon visit, as we didn’t have diplomatic relations then! That’s why the visit was such a surprise when Nixon announced it on TV (1972? –I happened to watch that telecast, and can still remember how astonished I was).
I’m pretty sure Bush Sr was ambassador to China during the Ford administration? (Hmmm, maybe that was when he was CIA director. I don’t think he served long as either CIA director or ambassador to China — maybe a year in each position).
I don’t remember now what Bush Sr. did during the Carter administration — seems that since he was a prominent Repub he wouldn’t have been ambassador or CIA director then but who knows. Maybe a Bush Sr. Presidential library web site would have a timeline.
Old joke: President Nixon comes on TV and says “I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that our planes have stopped bombing Hanoi. The bad news is that they are on their way to Peking.”
Puzzlingly unfunny to anyone under 45 or so, unless they know about the “old” Nixon. “Tricky Dick” was his standard derogatory nickname — the first post above is the first time I’ve heard it applied to Dick Cheney.
The obverse of Cheney’s comment is: if you (China) do something about North Korean nukes, we will help prevent Taiwan and Japan from going nuclear.
That’s a deal China loves.
Laying down the law…yeah, right. Chinese patience and gamesmanship have paid off again.
And when the North Koreans do eventually export a nuke? “oh, so sorry, we have little control over those lunatics”. We can splutter about our ‘deal’ in a pile of radioactive ash…
Relying on the Chinese to take care of the North Korean nuclear program is a fool’s policy.
And, by the way, of what real interest is it to us to have China the only nuclear power in that region???
Cliff, what do you want us to do? Is there a better way of preventing nuclearization of North Korea?
Paul H.,
that’s why Bush was an envoy rather than ambassador (ambassador implies diplomatic recognition, but envoy could be sent anywhere). He was most certainly in Beijing in the early 1970s, either during Nixon’s or Ford’s administration. Kissinger makes no mention of Bush in his book Diplomacy, but then Kissinger is not famous for giving credit to others. I wonder if anybody has a better source on what Bush Sr. did in Beijing?
If the Chinese had control over what N.Korea does with its nukes, N.Korea wouldn’t have nukes in the first place.
I am just speechless at the sheer inanity of that statement. China has every interest in keeping us off balance in the region. If they can get us to expend resources providing protection money to NK to not develop nukes, like that idiotic Madeleine Halfbright and the Clinton administration would have us do, that’s a gift from heaven. Like beer at the Delta house, it don’t cost nothing.
China’s going to let NK’s leash out for as long as it benefits them to do so. Cheney’s just informed them that they better reel in their pooch before he let’s the big dogs loose.
Hey guys & gals, this from USA Today (online) may shed a little light on whether Cheney was successful (skip the background you already know!):
“North Korea’s state-run news agency on Thursday confirmed that Kim made a secretive trip to China on Monday through Wednesday, but carried no comments on the reported explosion.
China, which also confirmed Kim’s visit, is North Korea’s last major ally, and the countries’ ruling communist parties boast of close ties. But while China’s experiments with capitalism have transformed it into an economic dynamo, North Korea suffers chronic food shortages and depends on its larger neighbor for aid.
Kim met with President Hu Jintao and other Chinese leaders and agreed to “push ahead” with a peaceful resolution to the standoff over its nuclear weapons programs, the North’s official KCNA news agency and central television network reported earlier Thursday.
The broadcast added that Kim said his government “will continue to be patient and flexible and actively participate in the process of six-nation talks and contribute to making progress at the talks.”
The comments were likely to be encouraging to the United States and other countries, who want China to use its leverage as North Korea’s leading supplier of food and energy aid to get the country to disarm.”