Comments on: North Korean reforms ‘irreversible,’ but potentially destabilizing http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/04/08/north-korean-reforms-irreversible-but-potentially-destabilizing/ Korea... in Blog Format Wed, 8 Oct 2008 06:45:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Sugar Shin http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/04/08/north-korean-reforms-irreversible-but-potentially-destabilizing/#comment-3009 Sugar Shin Fri, 09 Apr 2004 07:45:19 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=691#comment-3009 Another reason for the high costs of Germany's unification is the adoption of the expensive social(security)and pension system by the East. Also the worthless East German currency was swapped 2:1 for the "Deutsche Mark". The living costs and wages in the East are by far lower than in Germany, but not the taxes/ corporate taxes. Though the East gets infrastructure aid and subsidies from the EU, Germany as a whole is a billion ??? netto-payer into the money funds of the EU. The unempolyment rate in the East is around 20% in average and a widespread "emigration"/ brain drain to the West is also hurting the East German economy. But I think Paul Eckert is right, the unification costs of South and North Korea would be shocking. Was the German unification worthit, in light of the economic hardships? The majority of the Germans would say "Yes, it was worth every paid Cent." PING: TITLE: Do South Koreans Have $600 Billion Just To Give? BLOG NAME: Kamelian X-Rays Two reports on Dr. Marcus Noland about North Korea provide a stringent wake-up call for those overly sanguine about Korean unification. First, there's this Reuters report (via Marmot), and then there's this KT article on the same event. There's nothing Another reason for the high costs of Germany’s unification is the adoption of the expensive social(security)and pension system by the East. Also the worthless East German currency was swapped 2:1 for the “Deutsche Mark”. The living costs and wages in the East are by far lower than in Germany, but not the taxes/ corporate taxes. Though the East gets infrastructure aid and subsidies from the EU, Germany as a whole is a billion ??? netto-payer into the money funds of the EU. The unempolyment rate in the East is around 20% in average and a widespread “emigration”/ brain drain to the West is also hurting the East German economy. But I think Paul Eckert is right, the unification costs of South and North Korea would be shocking. Was the German unification worthit, in light of the economic hardships? The majority of the Germans would say “Yes, it was worth every paid Cent.”

PING:
TITLE: Do South Koreans Have $600 Billion Just To Give?
BLOG NAME: Kamelian X-Rays
Two reports on Dr. Marcus Noland about North Korea provide a stringent wake-up call for those overly sanguine about Korean unification. First, there’s this Reuters report (via Marmot), and then there’s this KT article on the same event. There’s nothing

]]> By: Paul Eckert http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/04/08/north-korean-reforms-irreversible-but-potentially-destabilizing/#comment-3008 Paul Eckert Fri, 09 Apr 2004 01:20:30 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=691#comment-3008 There are countless scenarios and Dr Noland mentioned just one, which assumes some 2 million North Korean laborers migrate to the South for work, but the rest stay while SK capital moves to them. He said migration/wage models suggest that raising NK living standards to 60% of SK's would forestall mass migration. Noland tends to reject the German model because -- if I remember his "Avoiding the Apocalypse" book correctly -- he expects that Seoul can avoid some of the currency and wage mistakes that Bonn made, which added to the pricetag in Germany. Humanitarian concerns notwithstanding, Seoul no doubt is seized with sticker shock when it looks northward.... There are countless scenarios and Dr Noland mentioned just one, which assumes some 2 million North Korean laborers migrate to the South for work, but the rest stay while SK capital moves to them. He said migration/wage models suggest that raising NK living standards to 60% of SK’s would forestall mass migration. Noland tends to reject the German model because — if I remember his “Avoiding the Apocalypse” book correctly — he expects that Seoul can avoid some of the currency and wage mistakes that Bonn made, which added to the pricetag in Germany. Humanitarian concerns notwithstanding, Seoul no doubt is seized with sticker shock when it looks northward….

]]> By: Sugar Shin http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/04/08/north-korean-reforms-irreversible-but-potentially-destabilizing/#comment-3007 Sugar Shin Thu, 08 Apr 2004 21:32:48 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=691#comment-3007 Hm,$600 billion sounds not enough to me. The unification costs for Germany so far after 14 years of tranferred taxpayer's money for East Germany amounts to ??? 1,25 trillion. And communist East Germany (GDR)had one of the highest living standard and the best infrastructure among the communist bloc. You can't even kill German cold blooded efficiency in a commando economy under Communism. In comparison with the GDR, the DPRK is a stalinist basket case, the sickest man of Asia. Hm,$600 billion sounds not enough to me. The unification costs for Germany so far after 14 years of tranferred taxpayer’s money for East Germany amounts to ??? 1,25 trillion. And communist East Germany (GDR)had one of the highest living standard and the best infrastructure among the communist bloc. You can’t even kill German cold blooded efficiency in a commando economy under Communism. In comparison with the GDR, the DPRK is a stalinist basket case, the sickest man of Asia.

]]> By: Michael http://www.rjkoehler.com/2004/04/08/north-korean-reforms-irreversible-but-potentially-destabilizing/#comment-3006 Michael Thu, 08 Apr 2004 16:48:00 +0000 http://rjkoehler.com/?p=691#comment-3006 That figure, $600 billion, sounds inflated. Does it account for S. Korean companies going for cheaper nork labor, which would stem the net outflow of manufacturing in the South, or the money from routing oil pipelines and rail links through the peninsula? Oh, and tons of American taxpayer money, as usual? That figure, $600 billion, sounds inflated. Does it account for S. Korean companies going for cheaper nork labor, which would stem the net outflow of manufacturing in the South, or the money from routing oil pipelines and rail links through the peninsula? Oh, and tons of American taxpayer money, as usual?

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