Not that I put much faith in a survey conducted by the Korea Times (especially one conducted of only 1,000 people), but I figure I’d link to it and let you decide for yourselves what it means. Anyway, 61.4 percent of those surveyed by the KT responded that USFK should remain on the peninsula, but at the same time, 46.3 percent picked the U.S. as the biggest barrier to Korean unification. Go figure.
What surprised me, however, is that according to the survey, 44.7 percent of those surveyed supported George Bush’s relatively hard-line stance on North Korea, with 48.6 percent responding that they disapproved of it. Frankly, I was rather taken back that so many people backed Dubya on the North, even if number was still in the minority.
Anyway, here’s a look at how some of the USFK-related results broke down according to age:
According to the poll, about 34.3 percent said that U.S. forces should stay here, while 27 percent called for their presence on a long-term basis.
Less than 40 percent call for their withdrawal _ about 33.1 percent wanting their staged pullout. Only 3.8 percent wanted their prompt pullout.
As expected, about 45 percent of those in their 50s and more than half in their 60s are supporter of U.S. military presence. Nearly 48 percent of those in their 30s and more than four out of 10 students wanted them to pull out in stages.
These figures show that age plays a key factor in determining their degree of preference about U.S. military presence. The possibility is that Seoul may accelerate its devolution from the U.S., as younger generations move into the leadership of the country.
Although the fact that a majority still back their continued presence is not surprising, still it can be regarded as a surprise of sorts, considering widespread anti-U.S. sentiment sweeping the country following the release of U.S. soldiers who killed two South Korean schoolgirls in an accident in 2002.
This anti-U.S. sentiment also played a big role in the election of President Roh Moo-hyun, who promised to correct inequality in the ROK-U.S. relationship.
I tend to avoid getting excited about the much talked-about “generation gap,” mostly because young, progressive voters eventually become older, conservative voters who are not particularly keen on massive changes in the security environment.
Anyway, take a look at both articles and draw your own conclusions.
8 Comments
Um-hm (Think of a really stuffy voice here)….
Actually, you can do a poll of about 1,600 and be pretty much on the mark if you get a good sample. 1,000 in a smaller, less diverse country shouldn’t be much of a problem. On the other hand, maybe their methodology sucks.
One couls also intrepret this poll on another way; wanting the US to “withdraw in stages” seems to infer the old “Yankee go home, but not now” mantra that has been going on in Korea for as long as I can remember.
Only 3.8% want USFK out immediately. Seems to me that over 90% want it to stay.
Until the NK driven press finds another reason for a racist hate orgy.
Yes. These have been my mantras for a few years now.
Mantra #1
The majority of South Koreans below the age of 65 view USFK and the overall SK-US relationship as a cancer on their society. A cancer they just can’t afford to cut out — yet.
Mantra #2
US troops in Korea are post-modern mercenaries.
Mercenaries because Koreans want to use them but hate them too.
Post-modern because they don’t make a profit - contrary to popular opinion in Korea.
But, to add to my saddness, the bulk of America doesn’t pay attention to Korea at all, but when they do, the press, think tanks, and both governments will tell them the “60% lie” and they will go back to comfortably ignoring Korea.
In my first comment I meant to say “1,600 in the USA”
Actually Marmot, a sample size of 1,000 is very good for a poll. The margin of error is only 3.1%. Use this formula:
The margin of error in a sample = 1 divided by the square root of the number of people in the sample.
For more information about statistics and polling, go to http://www.robertniles.com
Anyway, back to the poll results. Typically, when I ask a Korean how the U.S. impedes unification, I get a confused answer. Then I ask: if USFK leaves tomorrow, will there be unification? The answer is usually no. Koreans can’t explain what the US specifically does to prevent unification, but just “feels” it’s somehow culpable.
Most Koreans see the US as the major obstacle to reunification, yet most do not want the military to leave. That’s interesting.
I suspect that deep in the heart of most Koreans they really don’t want reunification. Why? They know it would be as expensive as hell and would drag their economy under for at least a decade. No more big apartments, no new cars, no big screen TVs, no sending their spoiled brats to the US to study…zip.
Better to just keep Kim Jeong-il afloat and try to avoid thinking about the starvation and brutal treatment of the millions of their “brothers.” Any scapegoat will do (Japan is on that list? Amazing…)
Of cource the US as the major obstacle to reunification. Reunification under the North that is.
I want to know how many South Koreans would really want to unify under that leadership.
Right. Somewhat counterintuitively, the margin of error is determined only by the sample size, and is independent of the total population being sampled. (Err, assuming obvious things like the sample size being larger than the total population.)