The Marmot’s Hole

I’m a little busy at the moment, but I really should make a quick post on this. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Yun Yeong-gwan turned in his resignation, a resignation that was promptly accepted by President Noh. This came very much as a shock — we were expecting heads to roll, and in fact heads HAD to roll for some of the nonsense going on at the Foreign Ministry. But very few expected Yun to exit stage left because of this. Yun was a young, bright guy who was probably in no way, shape, of form involved in some of the leaks and trash-talking directed toward President Noh emanating from certain Ministry officials, most of whom sit at the ministry’s North American Affairs desk. Still, given that he WAS head of the Ministry, I can see how the President would hold him responsible to some degree for the misdeeds of his subordinates. If things had stopped there, I wouldn’t be so concerned. Problem is, they haven’t. Some of the statements being made by the Blue House in the wake of Yun’s resignation are highly disturbing, to say the least. For example:

“A certain few individuals at the foreign ministry have been unable to grow beyond the dependent foreign policy of the past,” said Chung Chan-yong, senior secretary for civil affairs at Cheong Wa Dae. “They have not adequately followed the basic spirit and direction of the new independent foreign policy.”

It was the first time the country heard the words “independent” or “sovereign” used in an official description of Roh Moo-hyun government’s foreign policy. And it meant a victory for the “independent faction” in the conflict between the “Korean-American alliance faction” at the foreign and defense ministries and the “independence faction” at Cheong Wa Dae’s National Security Council.

The problem is, nobody really knows what a “new independent foreign policy” really is. Whatever it is, it seems like a good chunk of the Foreign Ministry (and the Defense Ministry, for that matter) didn’t like it. Yun didn’t go out quietly — in what can be seen in a number of ways, including a shot at the “independently-minded” National Security Council, the now ex- Foreign Minister reminded people that Korea doesn’t exist in a vacuum:

He said that only if the nation’s goals are clear could Korean diplomacy be independent. Korea must first recognize international power relationships, he said, and then consider where its national interests begin and end from a realistic perspective.

In other words, being “independent” should not be confused with being naive. And if you’re going to be have an “independent foreign policy,” you’d best make sure you know what you really want beforehand.

Let me make one thing clear — South Korea is an independent state, and needs to conduct its foreign policy in a way that reflects South Korean interests, not American ones. That being said, being “independent” and being an “ally” of the United States are not diametrically opposed concepts. In its latest editorial on the subject, the Chosun Ilbo writes:

In this day and age, all countries mix a little independence and alliance to preserve statehood and maximize their national interests. Even the U.S., the world’s only superpower, is busy maintaining and strengthening its many alliances, which spread out like a network. You can understand this just by looking at how it allowed itself to get tied down in trying to have more of its allies participate in the attack on Iraq, right down to the last moment. France and Germany, which opposed the U.S., are still part of NATO and the European Union. Japan is betting its existence on how well it can strengthen its alliance with the U.S. to hold back Chinese expansionism and its increasingly naked tendencies toward regional hegemony. Korea is stuck between the economic powerhouse of Japan and a China that has growing interest in exchanging its regional hegemony for a global one, so choosing and maintaining alliances is clearly Korea’s single greatest task in protecting the state.

Now, I don’t eat up everything the Chosun says, but unfortunately, the criticisms they level here are more than appropriate:

Korea’s chief executive lives with nuclear issues hanging over his head, but in his New Year’s address President Roh said nothing of particular note about the North Korean nuclear issue beyond the usual basics. He did not display any great determination about Japan and its claims of sovereignty over Dokdo. China is trying to sell Goguryeo as part of its own history, but the Minister of Culture and Tourism, someone who speaks for the ideological tendencies of the current government, actually speaks as if he wants to defend the Chinese. That’s the current government’s “independent diplomacy” for you. All said and done, this government’s ideas of “independence” mean nothing more and nothing less than “independence toward the Untied States.”

And in reference to the importance of choosing the right allies:

In this sense the government’s approach is a classic anachronism, dividing its advisers and working-level officials into “independence faction” and “alliance faction,” and, to use the government’s terms, factions of “independent diplomacy” and “dependent diplomacy.” A hundred years ago in Korean history, we walked down a course of ruin by being ignorant of international affairs and confusedly unable to chose and maintain the right alliances. The northern half of the Korean Peninsula became the most isolated country on the face of the earth by going on about sovereignty and independence like there was no tomorrow, and that system of government has dragged its people into starvation and collapse. You feel yourself in a cold sweat when you realize what the world and neighboring countries will think, seeing us willingly moving towards the same pitfall, having seen the ignorance of the North’s regime and the situation there for decades.

They call themselves “independent,” and say those who espouse a foreign policy that places importance on the alliance are “worshiping” the U.S. This view within the ruling camp has infiltrated the foreign policy that will determine the country’s destiny. Its ideas are extremely dangerous, “of the movement,” and of the style of the Cultural Revolution.

Ignore the last part for the moment - that’s just the Chosun getting a little carried away. But the rest is pretty much on target — playing one barbarian against the other didn’t seem to work so well last time around, and it’s doubtful that it’ll work in the current situation. If you want to be “independent,” not only must you be very clear about what that means, but you’d best be prepared to accept the consequences of “independence,” because “pride” will only get you so far in this world.

Before I sound the panic alarms, however, I should point out that this all may be the Blue House doing a little electioneering — the general elections are coming up in April, and the President has been taking quite a bit of flack from his traditional supporters for having his nose a little too far up Washington’s ass for their liking. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it’s business as usual after the elections are concluded. What I’ll be watching keenly, however, are US-ROK negotiations in the meantime, including the Yongsan Garrison relocation talks. The Blue House might attempt to show the voters its new and improved “independent diplomacy” in action, in which case, be prepared for some fireworks, because the White House is already pissed at the way the talks on Yongsan have been going, even with the old “America-worshippers” on the other side of the table.

I will comment on more of this later when I can get somewhat of a more balanced view — for reasons that should be obvious, I’m getting a high daily dosage of the Chosun Ilbo.

UPDATE: Ban Gi-moon named the new foreign minister. See the Oranckay for details