Today’s big news from Da’ Peninsula is North Korea’s apparent offer to suspend its nuclear program. According to the AP report, North Korea said it was “set to refrain from test and production of nuclear weapons and stop even operating nuclear power industry for a peaceful purpose as first-phase measures of the package solution.” I’m looking at the Korean version at the KCNA, and truth be told, I’m not sure what I’m looking at. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t be impressed by a North Korean offer not to build or test nuclear weapons — I don’t think they were planning to go through with a test in the first place, and a pledge not to build nukes could mean any number of things, including that they’ve run into technical problems and are looking to get something for nothing. However, their offer to discontinue the use of nuclear power for domestic energy (or in North Korean, enereugi, a Russian borrowing) production has caught me off guard — despite claims earlier in the KCNA piece that North Korea’s stance concerning the six-party talks has been consistent, I’ve yet to see their domestic nuclear power program put on the table. I think most analysts agree that North Korea’s energy needs would be better (and more cheaply) served by conventional power plants, and this offer might reflect an understanding in Pyongyang that there is no way in hell that they’re going to see those two light-water reactors promised to them by the Clinton Administration. If so, I begrudgingly give credit were credit is due — North Korea might, and I stress might, be starting to get a grip on reality. However, reality isn’t a one-way street — those expecting a Libya from North Korea shouldn’t hold their breath. Libya’s geopolitical situation was such that a regime-threatening military attack by the Americans was a real possibility, and therefore Tripoli had good reason to play nice. North Korea’s leadership, on the other hand, is probably convinced that an American invasion is unlikely, official pronouncements not withstanding. The North Koreans may be “evil,” but they’re not crazy, which leads me to believe that if they were really afraid of the Americans, this issue would no longer be an issue. The Americans consider an attack on North Korea to be too risky, Pyongyang knows this, and unlike Libya, the DPRK is therefore much more likely to try to be as big a pain in the Bush Administration’s collective ass as possible.
Like most things involving North Korea, I’m going to sit back and watch for a while before making a judgment — I’m generally quite skeptical of pledges/promises/threats/Christmas Cards coming from Pyongyang, but this is the Korean Peninsula, meaning anything can happen.
9 Comments
Tell me if this thought is completely crazy, but given North Korea’s very racist line of thinking, wouldn’t they mirror-image and consider us to be thinking the same way? And if they do consider us to be uncaring about shedding blood that isn’t our own, and given that the brunt of the casualties in a second Korean War would be suffered by the Koreans (on either side of the border), wouldn’t the Norks think us more likely to go to war than we are?
i wonder if their new found friendliness has something to do with the fact that we are slowly but surely taking away their customer base for nuke weapons and missiles.
I am not usually much of a supporter of the Bush administration but in this case I congratualte them in keeping their cool over the North Korea “nuclear issue.” This “crisis” was completely engineered by the North as a way of creating a problem and then negoiating concessions. They even had the nerve to boast they never had any intention of honouring the 1994 abortion known as the “Agreed Framework.” This has been the bargaining tactic of the North since 1950 and up until now it has always worked. This time they got too cocky after a string of successes that led to the 2000 North-South love in. The 2002 race riots in the South also must have egged them on.
This time the US administration has kept cool. Further, the Japanese government under Kozumi has stability not seen in 1994 (I know, I was in Japan at the time) and has also kept cool and stood by its US ally and kept its ground by refusing to return the abductees and cutting off aid when threatened. There is nothing a Korean craves more than attention and by refusing the North this it has driven them into fits. In this case the US administration has dealt with them brilliantly, obviously they have listened to long time Korea hands on this issue. Basically the best way to deal with any tantrum from anyone is to completely ignore it. In the last year the North has resorted to threats and bluster so many time that nobody listens to it anymore. Come to think of it, the South is now being treated the same way over the troop reduction and relocation issue.
This comes from a government whose largest import is foreign aid. The situation in the North must be by now truly dreadful. Even Medicines Sans Frontiers has pulled out. They have truly painted themselves into a corner, which in itself seems to be a common Korean trait since the South did the same thing with the anti-American race riots in 2002.
Thus North Korea faces a bleak set of conditions; its people are literally starving and freezing in the dark. The US is undermining its customer base for weapons and narcotics. The US administration is not playing the game by the North’s rules anymore. This leaves the North with little wiggle room. Had they made a deal of some sorts in the last talks they would have much more leverage than they do now.
This must all severely piss-off Comrade Roh and the defacto Leader of South Korea, Trade and Foreign Affairs Minister Comrade Yoon who is about as Red as it comes. Both Comrades Roh and Yoon have proven themselves inept at just about anything they can be inept at, be in domestic, economic or foreign policy. They still love the Dear Leader and try to follow his orders but they cannot risk annoying Uncle Sam much because he is really mad at them and will use any excuse to pull-out USFK which is, ironically, the main factor in keeping their mentor, the Dear Leader, in power.This is because as soon as USFK pulls out some kind of conflict between North and South is inevitable and now matter how hard they try not to, the South would probably win and then be faced with 1) not having their role model around anymore, 2) having to pay most of the rebuilding costs and 3) not being able to blame America for all their problems, especially when the Little Shop of Horrors is exposed to the international press.
To close, and this is rather too long, I do believe that the Bush adminstation truly cares about the welfare, well being and freedom of the people in the North. Isolating the Dear Leader is the best way to attain this, even if his friends in the South continue their love in with a dictator.
‘..given the north’s racist line of thinking…’
wrote mr. ray
then mr. ray wrote later when referring to the koreans up north:
‘the NORKS think us more likely to go to war.’
one might wonder if mr. ray has a racist line of thinking. nes pas?
let’s look at something else other mr ray wrote, shall we?
‘and they consider us uncaring in shedding blood that isn’t our own.’
well, that we could care less about killing millions of other people is very true. we got a lot of folks like you spouting off about how we might need to attack north korea. there’s no talk about the well being of the people in the south. i saw charlie rose not too long ago ask a panel of guests about attacking north korea. didn’t even ask what would happen to our allies in the south.
the us under the current administration believes it has a right to attack north korea and destroy south korea in the process. the koreans need to be very afraid of folks like bush. they should also fear the many expats who live in korea advocating such a thing for the very people who give them their girlfriends.
don’t believe it? ask vietnam.
I always root for the under-dog: an American trait. When I saw that bad-boy “Saddam” looking needy after his capture — I had the impulse to nurture him. I immediately started milking in front of the TV set.
Kim Jung Il now seems alone and afraid: I want to bury his vulnerable face into my breasts; to protect him from that bully boy — Bush!
Please! Have compassion for Kim Jung Il — vote DEMOCRAT.
Thank you, Silly Sally
well, that we could care less about killing millions of other people is very true. we got a lot of folks like you spouting off about how we might need to attack north korea. there’s no talk about the well being of the people in the south. i saw charlie rose not too long ago ask a panel of guests about attacking north korea. didn’t even ask what would happen to our allies in the south.
the us under the current administration believes it has a right to attack north korea and destroy south korea in the process. the koreans need to be very afraid of folks like bush. they should also fear the many expats who live in korea advocating such a thing for the very people who give them their girlfriends.
You make a very good point in the sense that there do appear to be way too many pundits who think way too lightly of an attack on the North. Even if one does keep the military option on the table as a matter of diplomacy, it’s an option that carries with it very real risks for a lot of people. I do question, however, whether the Bush Administration has been so bloody-minded toward North Korea as you seem to suggest. I ask you to compare this Adminstration’s handling of the North Korean nuclear issue with the way in which the previous Administration handled its problems with the DPRK. Clinton was the one who parked two carrier groups off the Korean coast and came very, very close to ordering air strikes on North Korean nuclear facilities. Bush, on the other hand, has just sat back and tried to make this issue look like anything other than a crisis. Frankly, I’ve seen more concern about the North Korea’s nuclear weapons program comming from American Democrats and certain quarters of the South Korean government than I have from the White House. Of course, this is only my observation, and I know others have a much different take on this.
I should also point out, just to be fair, that while it may be true that Americans care less about the lives of Koreans than say, the lives of other Americans, the same can be said of many Koreans in their attitudes toward the Americans - it was Syngman Rhee, after all, who wanted to prolong the Korean War and unify the Korean Peninsula, no matter how many Americans died in the process. Likewise, for most of South Korea’s history, the South Korean military (and the political leadership that came from it) always seemed a little too eager to start WW III (heck, I’ve read even North Korean and pro-North Korean analysts who credit the Americans with keeping the ROK Army on a leash). On the other hand, it could be argued that very few people connected with the current South Korean Administration care about a North Korean nuclear device going off in LA or Tokyo (a charge that’s probably unfair), and certain major corporations seem more concerned with striking potentially lucrative business deals with Pyongyang than they are about their money potentially being used to fund North Korean missile development. Things are more complicated, of course, and accusing each other of not being concerned with the deaths of our respective citizens is probably a game not worth playing. But if we’re going to level that charge against the Americans, one should keep in mind that it can be leveled elsewhere, too.
Well, Marmotman finally makes a little sense.
South Koreans — in general — care for American lives, as much as the Islamic Hamas cares for Israeli children.
One of the great things about being a “victim society” is no pressure to be concerned about others — we are “victims” for Christ’s sake!
Silly Sally
Why would this latest NorK pronouncement be seen as anything other than their latest installment of sending out different signals, to try to create division among the other 5 powers of the six-power talks?
Is there anybody other than the diplomatic types who can keep track of how often they’ve changed their pronouncements? What’s the point?
The sooner we get our troops off the DMZ and into their new bases in the South the better. If it was up to me they’d all be out of South Korea by now, replaced by naval/air assets not needed in the middle east, to monitor NorK shipping traffic.
PING:
TITLE: Negotiations with the Norks; yada yada
BLOG NAME: Flying Yangban
It appears that the Norks are going to let some guys come in and check out all their cool nuclear facilities (maybe). They have even supposedly offered to stop their program:On Tuesday, North Korea said it was “set to refrain
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TITLE: Freezing the Nukes
BLOG NAME: Barry Talks!
AP : North Korea offered Tuesday to freeze its nuclear program, including weapons and power development, to help rekindle talks on the standoff over its arms programs, while a delegation of Americans left for the communist country to possibly tour a dispu
It is strange how the Korean left wing constantly harps about the US getting ready to attack North Korea. This is despite repeated pledges not to do so from the State Department. The fact is there is no need to attack the Norks. Isonlation will cause them to eventually implode and pretty much everbody knows that.
That said, non-aggression pacts are worthless. Hell, Hitler had them with Poland and Russia. There is no point having a big military machine wiithout the threat of using it.
The North needs a permanent state of war in order to keep its regime of repression.