The Marmot’s Hole

What is it with Democratic ex-presidents? Look, I know that as private citizens, they are entitled to voice their opinions, but we do, or perhaps I should say did, have a rather fine tradition in the United States of ex-presidents keeping their mouths shut, and for good reason. This is apparently no longer the case. Tony over at Oriental Redneck covers yesterday’s speech by Bill Clinton at the Hyatt Hotel in Seoul, and rightfully condemns the logic of offering a similar agreement to the one Bubba arranged with the Norks in ‘94. Writes Tony:

In addition to its weapons program, the North continued to act in a manner inconsistent with the 1994 agreement. See the DMZ incident timeline at Global Security, 2002-2003 timeline at the BBC, BBC article on a 2002 naval battle between the North and South (other maritime incidents listed in sidebar).

Let me see if I get this straight: The Clinton administration negotiated an agreement with the Norks, which they then proceeded to violate. Yet, Clinton believes the Bush administration should offer a similar agreement, despite the demonstrable lack of good faith on the part of the North.

Frankly, it galls me that a former American president would come to the capital of an “ally” that has been, in many ways, actively seeking to undermine American policy toward North Korea, and then publicly call for the sitting American president to do something (in this case, sign a nonaggression pact with the DORK) that he has expressly ruled out doing. It’s bad enough that the Blue House and the White House can’t see eye-to-eye on North Korea, but now you have Bill Clinton (Bill Clinton!) coming to South Korea and, for all intents and purposes, joining hands with Noh in undermining Bush’s foreign policy prerogatives? I can only hope that Bush, should he finds himself unemployed after the elections next year, handles himself with much more class.

While Tony points to the Globe and Mail report of Clinton’s speech, let me use the Korean-language Munhwa Ilbo report because it seems to cover a little bit more. Anyway, said Clinton (or as he was translated into Korean, and translated back into English by me):

In order to solve the nuclear crisis, we need to send a signal to the North that we’d like to enter into a partnership with them… there is no reason for the United States not to sign a nonaggression pact.”

Oh no, not the “partnership” thing again. Look, just as China was not a “strategic partner” of the United States, North Korea is NOT our partner, and never will be. It is a nation led by a regime that views its interests in a way very much opposed to our own, and while there may be issues in which we can cooperate with the North Koreans (like in, you cooperate in ending your nuclear program, and we’ll cooperate in not launching air strikes), there is no reason what so ever that the United States should, or even want to, enter into anything even resembling a “partnership” with a nasty, dangerous, and dying regime.

Moreover, there are plenty of reasons for the United States not entering into a “nonaggression pact” with the North Koreans. The most important one, however, is that it will complicate things when the next crisis rolls around (and if you don’t think there will be a “next crisis,” then you have not been following things very closely on the Korean Peninsula). The very process of negotiating a nonaggression pact with the North Koreans is likely to be prohibitively high, and the pact itself may very well be used as grounds to start the next round of extortion (example: American deployments to the region, even those as routine as troop rotations in South Korea, may be condemned by the DORK as “violations of the nonaggression pact,” and away we go on another crisis). I can think of no reason why the United States should offer the North Koreans another tool by which to screw us, and for God’s sake, it’s not like Pyongyang has done anything to deserve one.

Clinton also said, “We must make North Korea self-sufficient economically by sending more food and energy.” And in regards to the suspension of reactor construction and the death of the Geneva Accord, he said, “In 1994, I thought [the deal] was a prudent thing to do, and if we didn’t take those steps back then, North Korea might have between 50 and 100 nuclear weapons today.”

Hate to break it to you, Bill, but the only way North Korea is ever going to become self-sufficient economically is for it to reform. Unfortunately, the North Korean leadership isn’t stupid, and has figured out that if it can continue to blackmail feckless leaders like Clinton (and yes, I’m well aware that Bush Jr. might soon join this list), there is no reason for it to enact potentially regime-threatening reforms. North Korea doesn’t need more food and energy; it needs pressure - pressure that will let it know that by continuing to act as it does, the dangers to the regime are much higher than those posed by reform. Now, this does not guarantee that the DORK will, in fact, reform; in fact, I’ll be highly surprised if it does. But it will lead to changes in the ways in which North Korea interacts with its neighbors, which to date have been based on the premise that threats and blackmail are, indeed, profitable.

Oh, and in regards to the wisdom of the ‘94 agreement, Bill, I’d have respected you a little more if you’d just come out and said that, yes, it was a crappy deal, but you didn’t expect North Korea to last long enough for it to be implemented. For all we know, North Korea may be sitting on a sizable nuclear arsenal anyway, and one partially paid for by American and South Korean money.

In a luncheon held earlier together with President Noh, Clinton said, “I am worried that because of problems like Iraq and tax cuts, the Bush Administration is showing less concern for the North Korean nuclear problem,” and “When I return to the United States, I will work for the earliest solution to the North Korean nuclear problem.”

Noh stressed, “In case we provide North Korea with security assurances and economic aid [Marmot's note: even Noh was smart enough not to use the Korean word for "nonaggression pact."], the North will respond positively to a peaceful solution [to the nuclear issue].”

Classy, Bill, classy… criticizing a sitting President in the presence of a foreign head of state. I could only imagine if Reagan or Bush Sr. had traveled to Seoul in ‘94 and told then-South Korean president Kim Young-sam that by signing onto the Geneva Accords without South Korean approval (as was the case), you were betraying a staunch US ally (well, at least it was back then) and showing a distinct lack of backbone. And as for when you return to the States, please, keep out of American North Korean diplomacy - you’ve done enough harm already.

PS: In case you were wondering more about that little luncheon at the Blue House attended by Noh and Clinton, there’s a piece on it (in Korean, sorry) by Money Today. Let me summarize:

• On Iraq, Noh said, “As far as the Iraq’s post-war recovery is concerned, many nations are participating, and helping in restoring peace and Iraq’s reconstruction will help international stability.” And on the ROK’s potential troop dispatch, Clinton said, “In a situation when many nations are shunning the dispatch of troops, for Korea to send troops to Iraq will by extremely appreciated by the Bush Administration,” but “since Iraq is not yet 100% secure, one must make all kinds of preparations to ensure security.” He also said sovereignty should be returned to the Iraqi people “as soon as it is possible” and that many nations should help to rebuild Iraq into a responsible Middle Eastern nation.

• On North Korea, Noh said, “I hope for more positive progress during this round of talks because the nations involved are maintaining more optimistic opinions.” He also said, “It’s true that North Korea does not keep commonly followed international norms and principles, but when we put together and look at the information from our two governments, one can understand the hope for a peaceful settlement,” and “In case we provide North Korea with security assurances and economic aid, the North will respond positively to a peaceful solution.” Noh also expressed worries about the North Korean nuclear issue becoming prolonged, and hoped that the US would help in solving the problem within the quickest time possible.

  To all this, Clinton responded that it was possible that because of problems like Iraq and tax cuts, the Bush Administration is showing less concern for the North Korean nuclear problem and that when he returns to the United States, he will do all he can for an early solution to the North Korean nuclear problem. Clinton also praised Noh and former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung for their efforts to improve North-South relations through reconciliation. He also condemned North Korea, saying that “It is a mistake for the North to believe that it can win greater influence through increasingly worse behavior.” [Marmot's note: that one made me laugh]