Today would normally be called an eventful news day in most places - President Bush and President Noh got to have a brief summit meeting in Bangkok, while the North decided today was a good day to test an anti-ship missile in the Sea of Japan. But alas, this is the Korean Peninsula, so it’s just another day.
Anyway, the summit. Not really a summit, actually - more like a power breakfast. The two leader discussed, shockingly enough, North Korea and the dispatch of South Korean troops to Iraq. In the end, they were able to hammer out a fairly uninspiring joint statement - the English version can be downloaded from the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, while the Korean version can be found here at the Hankyoreh. Anyway, for those too lazy to download the statement, I’ll summarize it below:
- Roh says he’ll send troops to Iraq, but timing, size, type will be determined later taking into account “public opinion, the result of the survey teams and the characteristics and capabilities of the South Korean military forces.” Bush thanks Roh, and tells him dispatch will strengthen US-ROK alliance, help in Iraqi reconstruction, and “increase the ROK’s prestige in the international community.” [Marmot's Note: Amen]
- Both leaders reaffirm that North Korean nukes will not be tolerated, express desire to start the next round of six-party talks “at an early date.” Bush says that the US has “no intention of invading North Korea” and that the US “expects North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.” Bush also explains how “security assurances” may be provided within the “multilateral context,” dependent on how North Korea progresses in dismantling its nuclear program. My favorite line from this section, only because of how the day’s events would play out - “The Two Presidents also urged North Korea to respond positively to the other parties’ diplomatic efforts and to refrain from any action which would exacerbate the situation.”
- Roh and Bush acknowledge the role USFK has played in maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Relocation of American facilities in South Korea will be pursued “in careful consideration of the security environment on the Korean Peninsula
All very exciting. What’s getting more attention - at least on this side of the Very Big Pond - is that Bush apparently told Roh that we are not-so-secretly considering to offer the Norks a written security guarantee, although not the bilateral nonaggression pact (which would have to be ratified by the Senate) that the North has been demanding. According to the Joongang Ilbo:
During a one-on-one breakfast meeting in Bangkok yesterday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, U.S. President George W. Bush told President Roh Moo-hyun the United States was considering an offer of written assurances to North Korea that would guarantee the country’s security, but that be short of a full-fledged nonaggression treaty, according to Ra Jong-yil, Mr. Roh’s national security adviser.
As a step toward renewing the six-party talks on the North’s nuclear arms program, Mr. Bush confirmed for Mr. Roh earlier media reports that the White House might offer a multilateral security assurance to the North in exchange for an agreement that would eliminate the country’s nuclear program, Mr. Ra said.
Mr. Bush stated that United States will not invade North Korea but neither will it sign a bilateral nonaggression treaty.
Sources said that South Korea, United States, Japan, China and Russia would draft a document for the multilateral security guarantee, and present it to North Korea.
The document would rest largely on the 1994 agreement in which United States, Russia and England gave security assurances in return for the Ukraine dismantling its nuclear weapons.
Condie Rice discusses it a bit further:
“The key here is that anything having to do with security guarantees obviously also has to do with performance by the North Koreans,” she said. “And it has to do with North Koreans being willing, able and verifiably capable of carrying out the obligations that they undertake.”
“We want to discuss this with our partners. We are not going to go in all guns blazing and say ‘Take it of leave it this is it.’ But, one thing should be very clear, this have to be performance-based.
What got people here was that this was the first time President Bush himself has mentioned security guarantees to the North. However, if this OhMyNews report is anything to go buy, the Norks might not be interested in anything other than a bilateral nonaggression pact, having likened such a security guarantee as a “check that’ll bounce.” The North will also object to being forced to give up their nuclear program first - for them, giving up their nuclear weapons is “virtual disarmament.” What they fail to mention, of course, is the prime reason why they’d reject such an agreement, i.e. North Korea, as a matter of policy, doesn’t make “verifiable deals.” It makes deals it can milk until such time as it is profitable to break them and start a whole new round of extortion negotiations. Also of interest in the OhMyNews piece is the domestic angle - some suggest that the relatively dovish position taken by President Bush is a favor to President Noh, who is currently biting the bullet by sending troops to Iraq (of course, this being the Nodong Shinmun OhMyNews, they went on to suggest that the US might use this South Korean “weakness,” i.e., its need for a dovish position on North Korea from Washinton, to demand more and more in Iraq).
The North, of course, couldn’t let the APEC summit go without doing something stupid, however. And stupidity they did perpetrate, firing an anti-ship missile into the East Sea:
North Korea test-fired an anti-ship missile off its east coast Monday as President Bush and other leaders opened an Asian summit, the communist country’s latest military exercise amid tensions over its nuclear program.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff declined to further identify the type of missile, but said North Korea has fired the same type two or three times this year. U.S. officials are more concerned about North Korea’s efforts to develop a missile that could reach the United States.
“The land-to-ship missile North Korea test-fired today is seen as part of its annual exercise,” said a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul, speaking on customary condition of anonymity.
Now, nobody on this end seems to care - on this story, the pieces in the Western press seem much longer than the ones I see over at Yahoo! Korea - so if you found this event troubling, you shouldn’t have. Just another wasted missile, as far as I’m concerned. This is the Norks’ way of trying to look bad-ass; unfortunately, they have yet to learn that such pathetic demonstrations of “strength” do not work with the current Administration. I mean, for Christ’s sake, the Bush Administration is virtually egging them on to test a nuke, and all they offer up is a modified Silkworm launch at a whole lotta nothing?
UPDATE: For some “outstanding” expert opinion from the Land of the Morning Calm (in English!) check out this Korea Times piece. Just some of it:
While the United States suggested a written security assurance for North Korea yesterday, experts here believe that it is not enough to get the communist regime to dismantle its nuclear program.
They said that the suggestion will not appeal to Pyongyang, which has been demanding a non-aggression pact with the U.S.
The evaluation comes after U.S. President George W. Bush came up with the security pledge for Pyongyang to be backed by five surrounding nations, namely Russia, China and Japan as well as the two nations.
“In the suggestion, the U.S. has not gone any further to compromise on and settle the nuclear tension. It is even one step back from Powell’s position involving the U.S. Senate on the security guarantee,” Dongguk University professor Lee Chul-ki said.
“I guess Roh gains the multilateral-format assurance in exchange for the troop dispatch. But I don’t think North Korea will buy the suggestion,” he said.
Hey, I’ve got a suggestion the Norks might buy - take this deal or start learning how to eat reprocessed plutonium.
