The Marmot’s Hole

Today’s decision by the Blue House to send troops to Iraq - even if the composition and timing of the dispatch has yet to be decided - is the story of the day. There’s a ton of info rolling in at the moment, and I’m not even close to sorting it all out. Anyway, for starters, I have below a long-ish post on Noh’s announcement - for the sake of blog readability, I’ve put most of it in the “continue reading” section. Here’s an outline of what I’ve got so far:

• ROK to send troops to Iraq; size, composition, and timing to be decided later

• National Assembly approval process
• Initial party reactions
• Public opinion polls iffy, NGOs choosing sides

THE QUASI-DECISION

Today’s NSC meeting at the Blue House came and went, and in its wake we are left with a quasi-decision on Iraq. Let me start with the Yonhap News summary on the decision:

After today’s emergency National Security Council (NSC) meeting, called by President Noh Mu-hyeon, at the Blue House, the President has decided to send additional forces to Iraq to help restore peace and in its post-war reconstruction.
However, concerning the character, makeup, size, and timing of the troop dispatch, the government said it will decide how Korea can best help in restoring peace and helping Iraq rebuild after taking into account the American request, public opinion, the results of a new fact finding mission sent to the area of deployment (Mosul), and the capabilities of South Korean forces.

Expect Noh and Bush to have a lot to discuss in Bangkok. Anyway, Blue House spokesman Yun T’ae-young, reading an official government announcement, had this to say:

The government, upon holding today’s NSC meeting, has decided in principle to to send additional forces to Iraq, having taken into account public opinion, our national interests and the US-ROK relationship, the UNSC resolution, and a number of different factors.

Yun also said that the government intends to provide Iraq with 200 million dollars of development assistance, spread out over four years. Taking into account the 60 million Seoul has already pegged for Iraq this year, the grand total will come out to 260 million dollars - much of it for use in the Mosul area.
Discussing numbers and composition, one Defense Ministry source says:

Rather than joining a multinational force, we have plans to form up an independent force between 5,000-10,000 men and send it to the area around Mosul, currently home to the US 101 Airborne Division, between February and March of next year - we also expect to discuss this [further] with the Americans

National Security Advisor Ra Jong-il (Note to Mr. Ra - why don’t you spell your name “Na” like most everyone else south of the DMZ?) had this to say:

There hasn’t been a decision yet on the area of deployment, and if the preparations for the fact-finding team go well, there’s no reason they can’t leave even during the middle part of this month… But in the future, we will continue to listen to those sections of public and political opinion that oppose [this decision], and through dialogue and negotiation we will smoothly deal with remaining issues.

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CONSENT

However, let no one forget that the National Assembly must first agree to any planned dispatch of troops to Iraq. According to Article 60, Section 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Korea:

The National Assembly also has the right to consent to the declaration of war, the dispatch of armed forces to foreign states, and the stationing of alien forces in the territory of the Republic of Korea.

The Korean-language E-Daily has a relatively short-but-sweet description of the process by which National Assembly agreement is obtained. When the President (who, in South Korea, has the power to introduce legislation into the National Assembly) sends over the bill on the troop dispatch, it is received and deliberated upon by one of two legislative committees, either the Unification, Foreign Affairs, and Trade Committee or the National Defense Committee. Which one depends on the nature of the troop dispatch - those associated with the UN (for example, the ROK’s dispatch of peacekeepers to East Timor in ‘99) are referred to the Unification, Foreign Affairs, and Trade Committee, while those conducted independently with no relation to the UN (for example, the ROK’s dispatch of engineering and medical corps to Iraq earlier this year) are referred to the National Defense Committee. Now, since we have a UN resolution (passed unanimously, no less), the troop dispatch bill is more than likely headed for the UFA and T Committee. Assuming the bill gets out of committee, it then must pass a vote - in this case, a majority of the legislators must be present, and the vote is decided by simple majority. Shit, you learn something new every day.

PARTY REACTIONS

Yonhap has a couple of monster articles on each party’s response - I haven’t even touched them yet, and for sanity’s sake, I’ll just reprint what this shorter YTN report says. So:

• Grand National Party (GNP): They viewed the decision positively, and in an official statement, Party Spokesman Kim Jin said that with the UNSC resolution being passed unanimously, Korea - as a member of international society - has a duty to help rebuild Iraq. Party head Choe Byung-nyul added that the government must decide quickly on the composition and timing of the dispatch, and taking a job at the President’s (yet to have an English name) party, he asked that they make clear their position on Iraq.

• Noh’s New (No English Name) Party: So far, reserving official comment. Rep. Jang Young-dal, however, said that the dispatch of forces is in the nation’s interests, but that the final decisions concerning combat troops and the size of the force must be decided through negotiations with the US and taking into account public opinion. Reps Im Jong-seok, Kim Seong-ho, and other younger members of the party, however, came out opposing ANY further dispatch of troops to Iraq - combat troops or otherwise - and that if the government wants to help, it should send more humanitarian aid. Anyway, the party will make its official stance on Iraq known tonight, so we’ll just have to wait until then.

• Democratic Party (MJD): No official position yet, although the party seems pretty fractured on this issue. Party vice spokesman Jang Jeong-hyeon, discussing a party meeting held this morning after the Blue House announcement, said that no decisions have been reached by the MJD, although apparently most of those who attended the meeting opposed the sending of combat troops. However, Jang also pointed out that there were also those who supported the dispatch of combat troops, and even those who opposed the dispatch of troops - both combat and non-combat - all together.

PUBLIC OPINION

This is rather hard to get a read on. OhMyNews reports that a crash survey conducted by KBS on the day of the Blue House announcement resulted in 56.1% of those questioned (1000 people) answering that they support the dispatch of additional forces to Iraq, with 42.3% opposing (KBS claims a 3% margin or error). Apparently, the UNSC resolution helped - public opinion may have swayed as much as 15% after its adoption. Also of note, more than 70% answered that they believed the sending of additional forces to Iraq would be in Korea’s national interests, but concerning the government’s reading of public opinion, respondents were split on how well it was doing. On the other hand, OhMyNews conducted an online poll of its own (subscribers only) - out of a one-day’s total of 742 responses, 70% said that they oppose the dispatch of forces to Iraq, while 25% said that they supported it. Keep in mind however, we’re talking about OhMyNews here - a poll conducted of Rodong Shinmun readers would probably result in higher levels of support for sending troops to Iraq. Anyway, more on this later as info roles in and I get a chance to digest it.

In terms of NGO activity, the Korean-language Money Today reports that both the Korean Employers Federation (KEF) and the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) have come out in support of sending troops - the later issued a statement I found particularly touching:

About sending troops to Iraq, the government has made a decision taking into account our national interests, including our special security conditions and the US-ROK relationship, as well as the improvement of our economic cooperation with the Middle East, including Iraq… Our nation’s participation in the restoration of order and the democratization of Iraq can help as we participate together, as a member of international society, in the nation’s economic reconstruction.

On the other side, we have the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (whose members, if I recall correctly, are the target of attention of the riot cops in my banner image), issued a statement denouncing the decision:

The govenment didn’t ask the citizens - it simply gave in to American pressure and made its decision… All those who love peace will put their strength together and work together to oppose the dispatch of troops to Iraq… Sending troops to Iraq is a crime against history and peace by taking sides with the Americans in a war of invasion, while it’s hard to find any reason to make enemies out of Arabs who have committed no wrong… Together with the “Emergency Citizen’s Movement to Oppose the Sending of Troops to Iraq,” we will block the passage of the dispatch bill in the National Assembly. To do this, we will take a number of actions, such as holding large gatherings and demonstrations, judging and chastising those Assemblymen who agree to the troop dispatch, and holding work-place votes.

Oh boy!