The Marmot’s Hole

About Total Recall in Korea, Tony of Oriental Redneck asks in my comment section:

I’m a bit unclear on the point of all this. My questions are:
1. Is this a mechanism provided for under SK law?
2. What happens if he loses?
So far, it seems like a large, government-funded opinion poll. Sounds pretty masturbatory to me.

Well, to answer your first question, this [a referendum on public confidence] is NOT a mechanism provided for under ROK law. In fact, Article 72 of the ROK Constitution seems to forbid the president from holding such a referendum. This is why the President, in a recent press conference, raised the possibility of legal changes to allow for a vote to take place. But you can bet money that the process of getting those changes is going to be a long and nasty one - as it should be, since we’re talking about altering the basic law of the land (not that the opposition GNP is that civic minded).

Now, to answer your second question, what will happen to the Prez if he loses is still unknown, since the time and format of the vote have yet to be established. Noh has proposed a December 15 vote, but a proposal is just that - a proposal. That being said, if that proposal goes through, and the President fails to do well in the referendum, he has pledged to step down in February, with new presidential elections being held in April. The Korea Times quotes from the President’s speech before the National Assembly today:

Should I fail to get the people’s confidence, I believe the presidential election should be held in April 15 along with the general elections to avoid the possible wasting of national energy and confusion in state administration.

Sounds pretty clear to me what he intends to do if he loses. But like I said, we’ll have to wait and see if any of this gets off the ground.

Now, as for your observation that this is all pretty masturbatory, you may be right. There seems to be a difference of opinions as to what the Nohmeister’s got planned with all this. Over at Infidelworld, Joseph sorts us into two groups:

The phallosphere debates another issue: Roh’s no-confidence gambit. Marmot and BigHo have no respect for Roh’s poker skills. Over in the smoky corner, SEB says Roh is doing a Gray Davis. Absent a Korean Terminator, that might just work. I agree with Mike so much as Roh is gambling for high stakes, but I think his target is the prosecutor’s office taking potshots at the MDP at will now.

As Infidel points out, I think the Noh wants out. But at the same time, SEB’s take on this is as good as any right now - if it comes down to a vote, Noh just might beat it, and the Oranckay provides us with some survey data (courtesy the Hankyoreh Shinmun) to show us why. Heck, even the boys and girls at the Chosun Ilbo - of all people - are predicting that the guy will pull it out if it comes down to a vote:

According to surveys conducted by various media outlets and research institutes on Saturday, 42 to 50 percent of the respondents said that they would cast a “yes” confidence vote, surpassing the no-confidence side by 3 to 6 percentage points. The day after, on Sunday, a survey by KBS showed that the pro-Roh side edged the opposite side by 10 percentage points.
Nevertheless, in all opinion polls, about twice as many respondents were negative about Roh’s ability to administer state affairs than were positive. Roh’s approval rating ranged from 25 to 35 percent, down even from when he made the referendum statement.
On reasons why the results seem contradictory, Kim Jeong-hoon, president of the polling company Media Research Incorporated, said that people fear that greater chaos would come if the president stepped down. So although many do not like President Roh, they would vote yes on a confidence initiative for stability’s sake. In fact, people in their 50s and 60s, who tend to disapprove of Roh’s performance, were more likely to say yes to a confidence vote than those in their 30s and 40s. This is because the elders tend to seek stability, Kim said.
Kim Hun-tae of the Korea Society Opinion Institute said that putting the head up for an irregular vote makes people uneasy. “Conservatives do not support the president, but they also have this mentality that the office of the president should not be shaken,” he said.

I don’t know - December 15 doesn’t seem that far away, but in Noh terms it is. He has an uncanny ability to attract abuse (both fair and unfair) in rapid succession, so a lot may go wrong for him in the coming two months. Too many events yet unforseen to make an accurate prediction.