As I mentioned in a post a little earlier, reports are that North Korea is rejecting further talks. The Marmot’s money (not that there’s much of it) says it’s bullshit. On this point, the Big Hominid does some fine punditry:
For the jittery: you have to realize that NK does this shit all the time. The idea is: you’ll never know what we’re really thinking. NK’s position is served by confusion and hesitancy on our part, coupled with the massive threat of an attack against the South. They may reverse their position next week.
Perhaps the best analogy for this whole silly situation is the Mexican standoff. Survival, for NK, means no one pulls the trigger. Heightened tension, which NK must maintain (and, if possible, increase during talks like these), keeps people from pulling away from the standoff and simplifying the dynamic. The situation maintains an equilibrium, albeit a very tense one. Skirmishes, whether they be shots across the DMZ or naval incursions, never erupt into full-scale clashes involving masses of troops, but their frequency is a sign of the tension level.
If survival is NK’s goal, and that goal is to be realized through perpetuation of the standoff, then “winning” during negotiations amounts to whatever keeps the status quo; any gains made– concessions from the US or SK or Japan, for example– are icing on the cake.
Quality analysis the likes of which only a Georgetown graduate could produce 
Happy Birthday, BTW.
4 Comments
thanks for the comment. I knew of jenkins but hadn’t read that story. His family has made a site for him:
http://charlesrobertjenkins.org/
If not for ISP and DDOS problems with Blog City, I would have left this brief comment on my own blog, but why is everyone getting stressed about the situation? The wise tactic to pursue is to call Pyongyang or let them stew. As long as neither side flinches nor overreacts, no military disaster will break. Big Ho’s analogy is flawed: there is no stand-off, but Pyongyang, which has no bullets in the gun, wants Washington to see it so. Washington can wait, but Pyongyang can’t; Pyongyang has to act. Washington has ample room for maneuver, if it ignores Seoul. The only wildcard is the American elections. I’d turn the affair over to DoD with instructions not to escalate, and ignore Pyongyang diplomatically. I would also stop sending unconditional economic aid. The important game is in Beijing.
Infidel!
Now you die like infidel dog in nuclear boshin-t’ang!
I disagree that NK has “no bullets in the gun.” Underestimating one’s opponent is always, always, always a mistake, in the dojang or on the battlefield. The trick is not to overestimate, of course, but I don’t think I’m guilty of that.
Thousands of NK artillery pieces (as confirmed by multiple think tanks… I went & did the research thanks to Captain Scarlet’s little jibe a while back insinuating he knew more about the Korean situation… then it became obvious from my research that he knew jack shit) are in fact currently aimed at Seoul. NK probably does have a couple low-yield nukes (assume the worst; it’s more practical), and they’ve got a huge-ass army that gets much of the int’l food aid diverted to it. To my mind, this isn’t an empty gun. I remain confident we’d win a war with NK, but vigilance is better than lowering one’s guard (i.e., having more confidence than is warranted).
I do agree, though, that Pyongyang MAY have to act, not WILL have to. Why? The big enablers– SK, China, Japan, and yes, the US. As long as the enabling takes the form of aid that allows the regime to lurch onward (or other concessions), it’s hard to create a timeline for NK’s eventual demise. I agree the regime will go eventually, but the indefiniteness of the departure schedule makes me wary, and the prospect that Kim might finally get desperate and just say “fuck it– CHAAAAAAARRRRGE!” isn’t impossible, though I think he hasn’t reached that point yet, and won’t for a while.
Robert,
Many thanx for the b-day wishes. I have now officially outlived Jesus, if tradition is correct about the length of his life. Was going to have an “I Outlived Jesus” party, but celebrated with my Christian Korean relatives, and they’d have taken a dim view of such a shindig.
By the way, if you’re ever in Seoul, please drop by Hwagye-sa’s Int’l Zen Center (main temple, top floor) on Sunday at 3PM to listen to Hyon Gak sunim’s dharma talk. You might get a kick out of his wacky style. (Ch’am-seon is 1PM to about 2:45PM). Come ON TIME and show these nincompoops proper discipline. Jesus, what a lax bunch. I shouldn’t be looking down my nose at them, but I’m still small-minded enough to notice when people walk in to seated meditation 90 minutes late, or barge in on the dharma talk an hour late, or answer cell phone calls during either. Grrrrrr.
Is your wife also Zen Buddhist?
Infidel and Marmot: do you follow “Kim Jong Il’s Blog”? That shit is genius.
Shalom,
Kevin
I’ll try to pop by next time I’m up in Seoul. Perhaps I should bring the love stick along - whip some of these slackers into proper Zen practicioners.
Excuse me - just watched Jim Thome take Seo Jae-eung deep the other way.
Oh, and the “not yet but soon to be” wife is, like many of her countrymen, a Tibetan Buddhist/recovering Marxist-Leninist.