Both Kevin at IA and Adam at PRC News discuss Chinese President Hu Jintao’s advice to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, or at least as said advice was reported by CNN. Hu is reported to have made three suggestions to Kim:
- Work towards attaining economic self-sufficiency;
- Try out a Chinese-style open-door policy;
- And to improve relations with neighboring countries by halting its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program.
As Kevin at IA points out, all three are pipe dreams at best. For North Korea to attain economic self-sufficiency (not of the Juch’e kind) would require more basic socio-economic changes than the regime could withstand, and the North Korean leadership knows it. And the constant “war-footing” that Hu recommends that the North terminate is an important tool for the North Korean regime - just as Mao maintained his grip on power in China though endless “movements” designed to keep the society in a constant state of turmoil, the North uses the 24/7 state of “war” to keep its society disciplined and highly regimented, while providing an extremely useful rationale for the deprivations its citizens MUST face (I say MUST because the North lacks the ability to alleviate their suffering without making regime-threatening reforms). And North Korea ain’t China - an real “open-door policy” in North Korea is about as likely as Iowa collectivising agriculture. The last is also unlike - why would North Korea give up a program that has been so profitable in the past? Besides, those WMD lead to crises with the outside world - crises which do nothing but strengthen the Korean Workers Party’s grip on power.
To be frank, I’m not sure how serious China is being here - I think this report is more for foreign consumption, i.e. oh, look how helpful China is being, rather than any indication of how China will behave during the six-party talks. As I’ve said before many a time, China could have put an end to this problem a long, long time ago, and the fact that it didn’t says to me that Beijing sees this as an opportunity to win influence / political points vis-a-vis the United States - a very dangerous game to play indeed. Talk is cheap; when I see China actually do something other than protect the North Koreans in the UN, then I’ll start believing that the Chinese really want to start playing a productive role on the peninsula.
